QuantumLogicTrading

QuantumLogicTrading

Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, H1 and weekly NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Short NZDUSD is in my top 2 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. NZD is considered the riskiest G10 currency cross, so NZD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit occurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for NZD due...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Short AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

2016, the year of the Risk-Off Asset Historically Gold has performed +10-20% in the 6 months into US Presidential Election years AND also by longing Gold on this pull-back it opens up the opportunity to benefit from the potential tail risk that the UK votes to "Brexit" in which Gold will likely trade through $1400. Gold is one of my favourite plays for 2016 for...

QuantumLogicTrading

Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...

QuantumLogicTrading

GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...

QuantumLogicTrading

In the previous post we have used the Price Action data from the Scottish UK Referendum for GBPUSD for the 3-days on and around the vote so the 17th, 18th (vote day) and 19th (result day) of September 2014 as a gauge to forecast whats in store for Price action on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week (the parallel days for both of the referendums). ...

QuantumLogicTrading

UK EU Referendum (Brexit) vs Scottish UK Referendum Price Action Forecast: - We will use the difference in ATR and volatility between the 3-day run up into UK EU Referendum (UER) and the Scottish UK Referendum (SUR) in order to forecast what we expect price action to show on the 22nd, 23rd and 24th. 2014 SUR 3-DAY EVENT (17,18.19) 1. 1-Period ATR for the...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Indicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1)...

QuantumLogicTrading

The UK EU Referendum has presented significant discounted buying opportunities, with many blue chip names anywhere from 5-15% down in the last 2wks. The uncertainty regarding the UK position in the European Union has pushed investors to see Gold, Treasuries and JPY, whilst fleeing risk equities. - IMO the next week or two will form a trend of oscillating...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

Thought id put a piece out as my guide for the week for how to trade the 23rd UK EU Referendum vote. IMO the first rule and most important is - DONT TRADE THE VOTE. Trying to guess the answer is like trying to win the lottery, so instead i advise taking a position on the volatility , as volatility doesnt discriminate, it trades both ways. Trading the...

QuantumLogicTrading Updated 

We had the best possible outcome for FOMC's Rate decision and Fed Yellens speech which was neutral IMO as expected, with the Economic Projections being dovish, downgrading the projected rate hike cycle. We now look to BOJ. Trading strategy: LONG USDJPY (possibly short also GBPJPY for longer term investors or investors that want to hedge against a hawkish...

QuantumLogicTrading

The best Idea to play BOJ and FOMC from a risk-averse perspective is to own both in a Long Straddle Strategy Dynamic Straddle: Long USDJPY & Short GBPJPY - TP from volatility & Event likely hoods TP levels = cannot be greedy else you may miss one trades exit point so <25 pips when it goes in your direction for each - total TP = 50pips as 2*25pips Reasoning...

QuantumLogicTrading

Wanted to post a quick message telling people to sell the rally for 100-200 pips dependant on how quickly you get on the short.. Volatility is trading lower (as we expect in a rally) however it WILL pick up again/ reverse once it bottoms out - which i think is now! The trend for all GBP pairs is LOWER hence dont fight the trend with longs INSTEAD when you see...

QuantumLogicTrading

My FX portfolio currently consists of : - 2Long x USDJPY @ 106.8; 2Short x GBPJPY @ 151.2 (dynamic hedge for long UJ); 2Short x GBPUSD @ 1.4570. I will add to my short GBPUSD holdings if i can get a similar price & I may add to short GBPCHF or EURCHF downside if markets make a turn for the worst as IMO CHF denominations are under-priced relatively (as discussed...

QuantumLogicTrading

An analysis of which LONG has the best value against the short GBP to play the Brexit. [ - GBPUSD has a target handle of 1.385. - GBPJPY target handle at 1.483. - GBPCHF target handle at 1.335 . - IMO currently i rule out GBPUSD short, as USD doesnt have the same "risk-off" demand as CHF and JPY. Also USD and GBP economies are perhaps the most highly...