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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - TRUMP TO WIN - SHORT SPX & LONG VIX
VIX
, D
VIX: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - TRUMP TO WIN - SHORT SPX & LONG VIX
Updated 

Preparing for a Trump win Following Friday and the FBIs decision to re-open the case on Hilary I have decided I am going to assume A Trump win, this is for several reasons: FBI pbs.twimg.com 1) After reading into it, the reopening of the FBI case implies one of three things imo - 1. They have found new significant information that can or will see Hilary...

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - TRUMP TO WIN - SHORT SPX & LONG VIX
VIX
, D
Long
VIX: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - TRUMP TO WIN - SHORT SPX & LONG VIX
Updated 

Preparing for a Trump win Following Friday and the FBIs decision to re-open the case on Hilary I have decided I am going to assume A Trump win, this is for several reasons: FBI pbs.twimg.com 1) After reading into it, the reopening of the FBI case implies one of three things imo - 1. They have found new significant information that can or will see Hilary...

LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION
USDJPY
, D
Long
USDJPY: LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION

LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in...

LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION
USDJPY
, D
Long
USDJPY: LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION

LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in...

FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT?
USOIL
, D
Short
USOIL: FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT?

Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely...

FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT?
USOIL
, D
Short
USOIL: FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT?

Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely...

USD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - SELL MXNJPY - RISK & SENSITIVITY
MXNJPY
, W
Short
MXNJPY: USD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - SELL MXNJPY - RISK & SENSITIVITY
Updated 

Presidential Election - Trump wins - MXN more sensitive than USD, Yen to pick up the risk-off shift: 1. Positioning for a trump win is much more interesting than a hilary win but nonetheless both should be profitable at some level. My number 1 position will be SHORT MXNJPY for a number of reasons 1) MXN has been very sensitive to the USD election given trade...

USD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - SELL MXNJPY - RISK & SENSITIVITY
MXNJPY
, W
Short
MXNJPY: USD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - SELL MXNJPY - RISK & SENSITIVITY

Presidential Election - Trump wins - MXN more sensitive than USD, Yen to pick up the risk-off shift: 1. Positioning for a trump win is much more interesting than a hilary win but nonetheless both should be profitable at some level. My number 1 position will be SHORT MXNJPY for a number of reasons 1) MXN has been very sensitive to the USD election given trade...

LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLE
EURCHF
, D
Long
EURCHF: LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLE
Updated 

Long EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive...

LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLE
EURCHF
, D
Long
EURCHF: LONG EURCHF - SNB BID INTERVENTION @ THE 1.08 HANDLE

Long EURCHF - 9/10 Conviction: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan has said in the past that FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher when we were around this level previously. 2. Ive...

LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL
XAUUSD
, D
Long
XAUUSD: LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL

Long XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although...

LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL
XAUUSD
, D
Long
XAUUSD: LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL

Long XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although...

SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL
USDJPY
, D
USDJPY: SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL

SHORT USDJPY: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell USDJPY at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on...

SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL
USDJPY
, D
Short
USDJPY: SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL

SHORT USDJPY: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell USDJPY at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on...

RBA MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - GBPAUD AUSSIE
GBPAUD
, W
Long
GBPAUD: RBA MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - GBPAUD AUSSIE

As expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent...

RBA MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - GBPAUD AUSSIE
GBPAUD
, W
Long
GBPAUD: RBA MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - GBPAUD AUSSIE

As expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent...

FED LOCKHART & POWELL SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - DXY USD
DXY
, D
DXY: FED LOCKHART & POWELL SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - DXY USD

The $ and Fed funds remains flat on the day despite somewhat hawkish comments from Lockhart, and in particular putting November on the table.. though the market realistically has Nov priced fairly at 10% given a hike here wouldnt make much sense vs Dec. Fed Powell on the otherhand was much more neutral, offering little but more uncertainty/ data dependency...

FED LOCKHART & POWELL SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - DXY USD
DXY
, D
DXY: FED LOCKHART & POWELL SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - DXY USD

The $ and Fed funds remains flat on the day (Dec 56%) despite somewhat hawkish comments from Lockhart, and in particular putting November on the table.. though the market realistically has Nov priced fairly at 10% given a hike here wouldnt make much sense vs Dec. Fed Powell on the otherhand was much more neutral, offering little but more uncertainty/ data...

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