Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

The S&P appears to be advancing in a well defined channel with a line of support within. Intermediate term target is 2177, but I believe we are in a 3rd wave and could see possible resistance at 47, 49 or 52. Trading Views daily R1 is 52 and SC's.com R1 is 49, The R you see is 30 min resistance. Watch VIX as part of any plan to short as a rising VIX gives you...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Despite being overbought, I think the crowded trade long has further to go. If we clear all of the clutter illustrated on the chart, I think we work our ways towards the green box. The call outs are mostly calculated areas of resistance and levels to watch. I think we are in the third wave of a subset and should see a pullback before the target area is hit. Be...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

May not happen but it would be an interesting set-up Dropped 31 points from the recent high and similar drop from the highlighted area would take us to 2070 Today was OK but that would be real fun.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

This index is already way off its highs. But, if it drops it a bit lower and then advances to the 3300 area I would likely short it with the hopes of eventually visiting a level just below 2200. It sounds aggressive and it is but the first wave down is in the 1000 point area. In my mind the European Monetary Union is a messy minefield and, to an extent, I would...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

I’ve only been working with EW theory for slightly more than a year but it would certainly would appear wave three concluded in the area of 2083 and then worked its way up to the possible top of wave five in five waves. Others have made the same observation but are unwilling to declare a possible end to wave five whereas I am open to the possibility because of...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

The year over decrease in earnings is expected to be minus 5.6%, marking five consecutive quarters of earnings declines. Excluding energy, the expected decline would improve to minus 1.8%. And the fact that we are within 32/33 points or so of setting a record high is nothing less than stunning, suggesting a yawning disconnect difficult to grasp. www.factset.com

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Much of the recent rally has stemmed from soothing assurances from central banks and short covering. I suspect most of the shorts were wiped out at 2072 ish, the highest retracement level during regular trading hours following announcement of the results of the British referendum. In recent weeks, the market has been using Fib extensions of recent extremes to...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Sentiment, financial mistakes and margin calls could drive this market down, way down. The highlighted area is compelling. A possible trend line; a downward Fib extension of the extremes of Thursday night trading; 61.8% big picture retracement; and battle tested price levels. In the end, though, just speculation.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

I have been using intraday extremes to develop 161.8% Fib targets and now we are simply reversing that process to look for downside targets. Under this method, 1939 stands out compared 1932 under to a big picture 61.8% retracement from 1811 to 2128. In the larger scheme of things, 7 points is very little. After the 120 point drop Thursday night, the market...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital Updated 

I have been using intraday extremes to develop 161.8% Fib targets and now we are simply reversing that process to look for downside targets. Under this method, 2039 stands out compared 2032 under to a big picture 61.8% retracement from 1811 to 2128. In the larger scheme of things, 7 points is very little. After the 120 point drop Thursday night, the market...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

After blowing through through just about everything, it came to a halt a a faint trend line around 2128. It rolled over, making for a great short. As of this writing, the drop is around 70 pts busting through 2085 and hitting a low around 2058. While the writing is on the wall, taking out 2050 will make it official.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Another fun but maddening day in terms of identify longer term trends, no doubt aggravated by ongoing obsessions over a Brexit. Should they leave a flash crash is possible; if they don’t we are looking at global weakness and anemic growth in earnings Yesterday I suggested a Bat possibility in the 2111 to 2115 area to give us a big picture head and shoulders,...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Bollinger bands and moving averages are compressing to unusual levels, suggesting a pending and sharp break out of what can be best described as a mess. I still believe the bulls have the upper hand in the short term and could drive the market into the 2111 to 2115 zone where I believe it will fail for any number of reasons including a head and shoulder...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Today was interesting and it was easy to see the market rolling over in the 2100 area. Whatever precipitated the 20 point pullback was likely a result of a short term harmonic, known resistance or a secondary trend line. And the volume that drove the market up and then down was miserably thin. After hours half of the losses were recovered. All of that said,...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

While we all use two and four hour data to draw trend lines an/or draw patterns, I firmly believe the market is driven by longer time frames. In looking at daily prices with the ribbon of moving averages, there is no sign of an imminent collapse as we saw last summer and last winter. We need to see at least two major cycles or waves in which a lower high and a...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

Just saw this: part of an Elliot 5-0 pattern that should be good for 44 points, putting us close to 2094 ish where we might begin to see a head and shoulder form around 2121.

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

This comes a bit late but after the close I started looking for anything that might offer forward guidance. I came up short on that effort, but noticed the harmonic I am sharing with you which has really decent ratios. On the short from D, usually you get about 61.8% of the CD leg (96 pts) but we got a bit more. With the exception of sovereign yields,...

Quantum_Maryland_Capital

I am not 100% confident that the wedge drawn is driving the market, but it connects many important points. I thought the plunge would take us to 43 ish, but 50 held and buyers flooded the market with orders. Looking forward 2185, of course, remains a level of interest but trades cannot be called in advance because its all about context. If the wedge is...