RealMacro

RealMacro Updated 

CRACK! GOOG has now broken a key area with the potential to have a huge move down. This is a very simple trade with great risk/reward. Bulls!! Caution is in order!!

RealMacro Updated 

Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market...

RealMacro

EU defense massively outperforming the US up 50% from the lows. Lockheed Martin is forced to console American allies, convincing them not to abandon the US Defense industry as Trump completely destroys it with his pro-Russia behavior. I don't see any way back to NATO normal. Trump has weaponized the US defense industry against our (former allies?) allies and...

RealMacro Updated 

Zelenskyy Oval office ambush did much more than ambush and betray an ally in support of a dictator like Putin. Betraying an ally destroyed the trust in the U.S. government. Without trust in the government, democracy cannot be, leaving only a dictatorship capable of surviving. Markets have spoken very loudly with trillions of dollars, not words out of people's...

RealMacro Updated 

As rates persist higher as FED lowers rates, small-cap companies with limited pricing power, and high debt, needing to roll over debt are in trouble. The chart is showing a CRACK!

RealMacro Updated 

Very important day for Target, as it breaks a key 50-year trendline after it has already lost -50% from ATH. Now crossing a line in of itself is not a big deal. However, how it breaks and what structure it forms after the break matters a lot. This is the 3rd time since 2017 it has tested the trend line. The last time it broke in 2008 it lost 50% of its value....

RealMacro Updated 

Inverse H&S setup in play for Gold. At the moment it is high basing. Worth keeping an eye out for a CRACK higher. Just a matter of time in my opinion.

RealMacro Updated 

The transportation average breaking the first time warned us that things were not right back in July 2024. Today we are getting yet another CRACK WARNING! The TRUMP economy will be a disaster area if he doesn't change his ways quickly. Even then it may be too late. Trust in the government has eroded. Democracy and markets rely on TRUST! Trust can not be bought,...

RealMacro Updated 

QQQ relative to money supply reveals that markets have never been this expensive in history, despite all the money that was pumped in over covid. Tulips! Caution is in order despite what "experts" may tell you.

RealMacro

I think it is important for people to full understand that the 172,000 job cuts from the Federal Government is more about showmanship than logic. The federal gov employees as a % of the population has been falling for decades through the growth of the population and the economy. This is the absolute best way to reduce gov. Debt, deficits, etc.. through growth,...

RealMacro

The Average Wage Earner Needs To Work166.5 Hours To Buy One Share Of The S&P500 If this chart does not drive the point home. Nothing will. Sometimes simple common sense is more powerful than all the fancy analysis one can buy or think of to create. Price is what you pay, and value is what you get! Remember that my friends. DANGER IS SCREAMING AT YOU!

RealMacro Updated 

Since my initial post, TSLA has lost usmuch as 24% of its total value. Do not expect new highs anytime anytime soon. At best it will flip-flop at these levels for a while. Again this is the best case scenario. Fundamentally TSLA is way overvalued. it is not even something anyone can debate rationally. Despite the horrible fundies, I did offer a buy signal...

RealMacro

As I have been saying in chat. It is hard to increase revenues, profits, and EPS without more workers producing. We have seen that reality play out in the data. Deporting prime-age labor and imposing taxes on ourselves is certainly not going to help. There is only so much output an economy is capable of. Giving tax cuts to the rich certainly won't change how...

RealMacro Updated 

The 15 minutes of fame for TSLA & Elona is over! According to the chart. Wave 3 up, with an Eiffel Tower ending pattern. I got the top back in 2021 twice. 1st 2nd I caught the break out in 2024 I caught the top again in 2024 I am getting the end now in 2025. I am a macro guy so it won't be tomorrow but it's over. Yes, there will be some buying...

RealMacro

When a politician and their buddy start spouting nonsense about the US debt spiraling out of control, but then insist that tax cuts are great because they’ll create jobs, and all that money will somehow trickle down to the rest of us, magically boosting tax revenue to "make up" for the lost funds. Especially when that same politician was re-elected bc inflation &...

RealMacro Updated 

Here is a simple ratio chart of Home price/Household Income, YOY rate of change overlaid with plain home prices. A few things we can learn from this chart. 1. A 4 to 5 X ratio used to be the bottom and top for home prices relative to household income. the ratio in 2000 after decades of stability rose to 6X income. Today we have spiked to 7.7X income. Clearly,...

RealMacro Updated 

Usually, I do not put myself out there like this and front-run. However, I have sufficient evidence that makes me comfortable enough to make an exception this time. While I will not go into the methodology here (unfair to my subs) I will tell you that the chart is in a wave 3 up that is now head-testing the previous H&S pattern. Bulls make money Bears make money...

RealMacro Updated 

Unlike the previous call, I made in NVDA that was corrective. This double-top pattern is signaling a reversal pattern. From a trading perspective, this is a great risk/reward setup that is relatively simple. A CRACK! here will likely lead to at least the right side filling, with the potential deeper pullback (reversal) If on the other hand, it pops above...