RuckSack

RuckSack

Immediately as trading got underway in the Asia session, the flight to safety was clear following the attacks over the weekend on Israel. This initially set us up short on the EUR, which unsurprisingly dropped below last weeks bullish close to continue it's slide. My first entry was short @1.05300. I wanted to give price time to settle after the London open to...

RuckSack Updated 

Huge beat on US jobs number sent the Euro tumbling in afternoon trading. It did start the week positive and was actually green in pre-market trading Monday, but that didn't last long and after it closed the day down 113 pips it spent the rest of the week trying to recover. Tuesday put in an interesting looking low, constrained to a 45 pip range followed by a...

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Watching to see if EURUSD can reclaim and maintain the 40 pip gap that currently stands between it and closing the week bearish for the 12th consecutive time. After an initial drop on Monday, the EUR stabilised Tues/Wed after the Dollar has started to show signs of easing. After the intervention by BoJ to stop the Dollar from staying above 150.000, the green...

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With the US avoiding a government shut down the Dollar has continued to gain through the session, pushing the Euro nearly 90 pips off the weekly open, already setting expectations we will see a 12th bearish week. RBA meet tomorrow and are likely to continue to pause rates. Futures markets aren't expecting a change until Q1 24. BoJ will conduct "unscheduled and...

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Intro Due to their respective moves I have been considering the potential for a Short on EURJPY and a Long on USDCHF , independently of each other. However, if you overlay the two pairs an interesting pattern emerges. Separation Event In the past year there have been 4 separation events where the correlation has been broken before coming back together....

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An interesting view of the recent downtrend in the Dollar (specifically highlighted on USD/CAD) is that with each subsequent rise in Fed rate expectations, the Dollar has seen further weakness. The Fed funds futures were showing a 25% chance of a hike on March 24, as the banking crisis swept the headlines. A week later futures were signalling a 58% chance, which...

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A 6 day up move was broken yesterday with the Dollar falling below local support at 1.34900. The losses have continued today, however price looks to be holding as the market awaits the CPI and BoC rate news at 1:30pm and 3:00pm respectively. The Bloomberg's survey median forecast calls for a 0.4% increase in the core rate which if correct would lead to the...

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After falling 3% since March 24th, USDCAD found a bottom on Tuesday and has since built on a 30min uptrend line. Client position indicates 59% Long vs 41% Short interest, with total trades heavily skewed in favour of the longs, representing 80% off open lots. Since this recent bounce started, both sides average return turned negative with shorts dropping to...

RuckSack Updated 

2 Week charge showing a run up and drop pattern, with a lower high element. Pair down 2% since Friday on good jobs numbers as risk off starts to sweep the markets? China re-opening and potential slowing in interest rates could fuel the down move?

RuckSack Updated 

Taken an options position on EURGBP to play the range we currently find ourselves in. Individually the Euro and the Pound have been pushed around by the Dollar recently but with Gov Bailey speaking later today and GDP figures due tomorrow I think there is scope for GBP to make a significant enough move considering the strike. Call @ 8800 exp Oct 14 Put @ 8750 exp Oct 14

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Watching FTSE 100 as it approaches the yearly low @ 6760. The market has been slightly more resilient than its counter parts due to the decentralised nature of the companies that make up the index, however breaking the low would be a significant moment and could spell further downside. There are levels to watch below this but we need to reference the Covid drop...

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Watching WTI this morning as we continue to see it tighten between the recent downtrend line and the high line from the daily down channel from a few weeks ago. The high line was respected from Oct 5th -7th, even though we haven't had a precise close on the 30min TF, price has rejected from that area so I think this is safe to view as a descending wedge.

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Taken an options position here on USDJPY with a Friday Expiration, hoping to see a break either side. We have the JOLTS Jobs report later today and Non-farm employment change tomorrow so I'm expecting these to provide the boost we need to break out of the range.

RuckSack Updated 

With the recent UK monetary response I started to get the sense that an emergency rate decision may be taken that will strengthen the pound. I will explore this deeper in a blog post but I wanted to get it on the record here, including the current timeline of when the position was opened along with my thoughts as we progress. Options expire Dec 21st @ 3pm.

RuckSack Updated 

I wrote a blog post Friday about the CCI data release trade potential on SPY today. May, June & July were all negative CCI prints which saw the market move lower, with August being a slight lift but still saw a negative move as the market was expecting higher. Todays results is slated as being another small lift to 104 but I don't think this will be enough to...

RuckSack Updated 

LONG CASE FTSE has found its footing from the lows of yesterday and has started to build a 30min higher low structure, with the most recent higher low coming very quickly after the recent swing higher. Would need to see a clear break of the 7080 level and a backtest of support with a bullish close before taking a position. SHORT CASE Price action has been...

RuckSack Updated 

After yesterdays CPI data release a lot of pairs saw elevated moves that have taken them away from price action levels, making it incredibly difficult to trade. Watching SPY here to see how this small consolidation range breaks, and possibly taking it lower if we get a nice move.

RuckSack Updated 

Watching USD/CAD this morning to see how it handles this recent inflection level. Looking for price to make a clean support/resistance play before taking an entry.