Samuel_Morton_Trader

Samuel_Morton_Trader

With US inflation rising, the US economy performing well, and rates higher for longer (well, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed hike rates by the end of 2025), the USD continues to be an obvious buy. The TVC:DXY is currently testing key horizontal support (previously resistance) and is nearing the weekly moving averages. This could be the time to buy the...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

CADNOK has been consolidating since mid-2023. Price action has formed a clear symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. The breakout is imminent. With the CAD's future looking gloomy, the price may finally have the momentum it needs to break the consolidation. From a technical perspective, the price is coming off daily and 4-hourly moving averages.

Samuel_Morton_Trader

I was hoping for more... The CAD fundamentals are very poor, and inflation is currently under control, so the Bank of Canada may continue to cut rates. I'm not keen on buying the EUR. However, this trade is based on CAD weakness and strong EURCAD price action, more than a stronger euro. But, hey, Euro Area inflation is climbing and above target, so the ECB's...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

I've been short CADNOK since 7.9394 (the weekly symmetrical triangle resistance area). The trade was taken based on a weaker CAD. The NOK was irrelevant. At the time, I also went long EURCAD and short CADJPY and CADSEK. The fundamental bias to sell the Canadian dollar is now even more substantial. However, I'm not planning to enter a second short. Instead, I'm...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992 Black Wednesday, or the 1992 sterling crisis, was a financial crisis that occurred when the UK Government was forced to withdraw sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. This is when George Soros famously shorted the pound and made a 1 billion dollar profit. Dot-com Bubble, 2000 The dot-com boom peaked on 10...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Overview Most Yen pairs are at or nearing key resistance on daily, weekly, and monthly time-frames. The Details The Yen continues to weaken against global currencies due to negative interest rates set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and higher interest rates from the RBA, RBNZ, ECB, BOE, SNB, FED, etc. The BOJ are edging closer to changing rates to zero or...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Overview I'm calling 2024 the end of Lira selling. The Details 2024 could see Turkish inflation peak🗻 The main driving force of the TRY selling has been unconventional monetary policy, erratic changes of the head of Turkey's central bank and finance ministers, and undisciplined high inflation A rate hiking cycle has been in play since May 2023 - rates...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Overview CADJPY is showing signs of upside momentum weakening. Price may attempt a bearish move to the weekly range support around 95.00. The Details Fundamental Analysis The Bank of Canada (BOC) may be one of the first central banks (apart from the ECB) to cut interest rates. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will likely start hiking rates in 2024....

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) will likely cut rates before The Bank of England (BOE), meaning potential downside on EURGBP. The Details European interest rate hikes have been successful - Euro Area inflation is around 2%. Mission accomplished. Easing rates is the next step after holding the current rate for a while. Cutting rates will weaken the...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Summary The Bank of Canada(BOC) could be one of the first central banks to cut rates, meaning a weaker CAD. Could USDCAD move off the 15-month range support? The Details Canadian inflation is approaching the 2% target, suggesting no further rate hikes by the BOC. Interest rates will then temporarily pause, which could cause CAD indecision. However, economic...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Summary The Yen continues to weaken. The USDJPY is now at a 25-year high. The Details The Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention could happen any week, meaning some big moves on JPY pairs. I am expecting at least a 500 pip bearish move on USDJPY 💥 If there is no intervention, USDJPY may reach as high as 155-160 before the BOJ changes interest rates to strengthen...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Overview The Russell is at a potential attractive buy area for long-term investors. The Details The Russell ( FX:US2000 ) stock index is in a retrace move. Price is currently between the monthly 50 and 100 SMA's. Historically, buying when the price is between the moving averages has been a favourable entry area for long-term investments. Things to...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Overview USDCAD is at a key technical resistance level. Price may break higher or start ranging. The Details USDCAD is potentially ranging between the 1.30 and 1.40 price handles. Price is currently testing the range resistance area. Fundamental analysis suggests a potential move higher. This week's news may determine if the resistance holds, though. ...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

⏰CHF at key levels ⏰ Overview The Swiss Franc is at key technical support levels on several pairs. The CHF strength is driven by the Israel-Hamas war. The Details The support levels will likely not hold if there is further escalation in the region. Expect the support levels to break and ***CHF pairs to move lower. If by some miracle, the war becomes...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Overview The UK's September inflation figures were released today. Inflation has not come down and continues to be high. This puts the Bank of England (BOE) in a dilemma. The Details UK YOY inflation has been released as 6.70%, the same as the previous month. Despite the BOE's rate hikes, UK inflation remains high and looks stubborn now. This could be the...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Overview UK and Canadian inflation rates will be released next week. These events could provide insight into whether the Bank of England(BOE) and the Bank of Canada(BOC) decide to raise rates further. The Details As things currently stand, the BOE will likely pause rates, and the BOC will raise rates again. This is in line with the current inflation figures....

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Overview USDJPY is nearing the 150 handle again. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may intervene, creating lucrative JPY buying opportunities. The Details The Yen is weakening. The JPY Currency Index ( TVC:JXY ) has the Yen at all-time lows. The last time the Yen was this weak was in September and October 2022; the BOJ intervened in the FX markets to strengthen the...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

YOY inflation for Denmark released at 0.90%! What does this mean for the DKK... A possible rate cut. In other words, the potential end of the DDK selling. its We may now see USDDKK end its current uptrend. Price could become indecisive or even move off key resistance at 7.1000. I can't wait to see what happens!