SemperTrader

SemperTrader Updated 

I'm still sitting at my position of 3600, and with all the Downtrending timeframes, one might wonder why. I'm taking this position, because even if we are going to go down further, our current price action is beginning to be oversold too far away from our trends of the 3hr and above, excluding perhaps the Daily. So, on a short-term basis of the next week, I feel...

SemperTrader

Not a lot of action overnight. On the Micro Level; The 5m and the 15m both have a higher high and lower low trend settled in. On the Main Medium Trends; All are in an uptrend. We are below our higher high uptrend of the 30m and 1h (purple and grey), but above the 2h and 3h (blue and red) uptrend lines. I'll likely wait for the micro levels to at least start...

SemperTrader Updated 

So we are here again where the trend appears to be weakening. We are currently below the 30m lower high downtrend line, which I drew in this time. We haven't really been able to approach the 1-Hour Uptrend Higher High Line. I also drew in the 2-Hour Higher High Uptrend Line, which we have been failing to go below during several visits over the last week. All...

SemperTrader Updated 

So trends continue to show a strong upside. Again, only the 12-Hour and Daily have a lower highs we are building improperly from. All other main timeframes are Higher Highs and Higher Lows. On the Micro Level, we actually have a lower high 5m, and the 15m had lower highs and lower lows we pushed past upward. The level I would watch to see if this Uptrend begins...

SemperTrader

So I decided to wait until after the open to see how things turned out and it would be after we got our economic data for the day as well. In terms of trends, we had lower high 30m uptrends and higher low 30m downtrends ending yesterday, however we managed to get both back to higher highs and higher lows on the 30m. Additionally, we've struck twice off the...

SemperTrader Updated 

Well, I had ended yesterday by mentioning I would be watching for a Gap Open, and sure enough, we had one. After closing at 4123, we opened at 4119. Overnight we had a change of the 1-Hour to a Downtrend right at 4099. Due to the major upswing of the 30m at 4143, it actually signaled lower than the 1H, and signaled in at 4085. This is really important to watch,...

SemperTrader Updated 

So every trend is upward with the exception of the Weekly, who is in a downtrend. That weekly downtrend signal was a higher low than the last time a weekly downtrend signal struck however, which fyi, was March of 2020. That is how long it had been since we had a weekly downtrend signal. That being said, I would trade cautiously towards the upside. We are...

SemperTrader Updated 

So I've been trading on Trends for 3 years. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like this movement over the last day. I mean, I've seen things like Wednesdays move from trends, sure. However, Thursday, with just a 30m downtrend and reversal, and not a single other trend showing anything? Nope. What does it all mean? I've no idea, honestly. I mean, everything is...

SemperTrader Updated 

So, yesterday we saw that lower high 1-Hour Uptrend I was looking for at 3975. Of course, that was just before the Market shot up on the news of a 75-bps hike and significantly increased hawkish rhetoric from J Powell. I had said nothing destroys trends like headline news, and clearly I should have listened to my own advice, hah. However, I have licked my wounds...

SemperTrader Updated 

So, too bad I bailed out on that Long I took at the end of yesterday, but oh well. I sleep better when I don't have overnight trades, at least in these current market conditions. Anyways, here we are, back above 3950 like I had said. 3958 brought us the new Lower High Uptrend on the 30m. We still, as of writing this, don't have a 1-Hour Uptrend signal. I wasn't...

SemperTrader Updated 

So, not much changed overnight. Going to be an interesting run coming up here in terms of trading by trends. On the Downside; We have lots of short opportunities. Even any upward movement at this point will just be considered an entry point downward. The 1H is in a downtrend, but if it pushed up to get an uptrend, it'll be a lower high uptrend unless we have...

SemperTrader Updated 

So with our movement down on Friday, we start to flip flop a few trends. That being said, I'd not count on any of them holding traction just yet. The 30m, 1H, and 2H Downtrend signals are all a higher low downtrend since their last time, and Price Action has already moved back above the 1H and 2H downtrend marks. Oddly enough, it was the 5m that really showed the...

SemperTrader Updated 

So overnight we didn't have much change since I had made that video yesterday showing the warning sign the 30m trend is giving and explained why if you're interested in seeing more on trend trading. The Upside; Look for a push upward on the 30m that closes above 4000ish as a sign that the 30m has gone back into an uptrend. It shouldn't take too much to get us...

SemperTrader Updated 

So all the trends at 12-Hour and below are still showing up. The only one to change position was that 30m, it flipped down, then back up. A key thing to watch for today to look for price falling is going to be if a 30m bar drops quickly below 3938 before we have enough upward momentum. If that happens, draw a line from the close of the 30m bar at 7/20/2022 at...

SemperTrader Updated 

I'll be watching for a bit of a whipsaw day. On the Trend side of that, I say this because in trading trends for a while, I rarely see all the 12-Hour and under able to go in the same direction for very long. I know it seems counter intuitive, but it would almost be better for at least the 1-Hour & 30m to flip a reversal, then flip back over. My assumption on why...

SemperTrader Updated 

Yesterday's volume was awful, but there was one major take away from it that is rarely ever observed. The second half of the day had more volume than the first half. Now it isn't hard to outpace a turtle, however, normally a slow first half is followed with a slower second half. I expect at some point for that selling volume to continue. There isn't any major...

SemperTrader Updated 

So, I ended up taking a L on my weekly trade to see the 12-Hour show a downtrend signal. Obviously in hindsight, when I saw it flashing at 3730 I should have just sold out, but it had hours left and even with some pullback, I didn't expect things to flip so much. The 4-Hour has now yet again reversed course to an Uptrend this morning. Having done trend trading...

SemperTrader Updated 

So Earnings that came in yesterday were small companies (in terms of small on the S&P) did decent, the two larger (JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley) did awful. What appears to have happened, is people dropped their money out of Financial Companies (Biggest sector loss of the day) and tossed it into Tech (Biggest gain of the day). Tech carried that recovery, much like...