SemperTrader

08:04

SemperTrader Updated 

So here you are again, sitting at the mid 4150 level. Overall trends have shifted from an upside trend movement at the beginning of April (Yes... we got stuck up here since April) to a downside trend movement now in the Middle of May. I think we are very close to getting a 1hr uptrend, which will be a lower high, and then I'll be looking to see if we reverse from...

03:13

SemperTrader Updated 

So we've got a lower high 30m, and the downtrend of the 30m would be very easy to push below coming in at anything below 4146. Many of the other trends are likely still poised to bring in lower lows if we have any downward momentum. However, momentum seems to be nonexistent. CPI data has normally been a major mover, but in the end it wasn't. Jobs giving way to...

08:50

SemperTrader Updated 

So I'm glad I didn't jump into 4160 as a short near the end of yesterday, as it gave me the chance to get in short at 4167 this morning. We've gotten a lower high and a higher low (just hit) for the 30m trend. That leaves me with some skeptic optimism that the market will continue to fall (is optimism the right word?) and we can discount the 30m and look for the...

06:18

SemperTrader Updated 

So I mention in the video, but make sure to realize how insanely low the volume has been the last two days. Sub 1 million contract days are very, very rare. 2 in a row... well the last time I could find we had multiple was the week right after Christmas of 2021, just before we started the 2022 sell off. Now I'm not saying we are heading to a freefall again, I'm...

05:12

SemperTrader Updated 

So since we failed to get a 4hr uptrend, broke below the 30m, and appear to be guided by the 3hr trend timeframe at the moment, I am short at 4151. Looking to see us hit 4130 (the 6hr ascending trendline) and see if we break below that or fail. If we break below that I'll be looking to see if we can head down to the 12hr flatish (slight ascending) trendline at...

10:44

SemperTrader Updated 

So after sitting back and being less annoyed with the market and doing a proper analysis, I see that I think this level is coming in as a pivotal point in our next move. The 1hr/2hr are both showing higher highs and lower lows for the previous trends. The 3hr has a lower high and lower low but was violated already. If the 4hr hits it too will have a higher high...

06:57

SemperTrader Updated 

So with the 6hr and 12hr both being a higher low, I'd expect at this point for us to at least head up and catch the 1hr violated trend. We've already hit the 30m (lower high) this morning. The 1hr is going to be a tricky trend, as the last uptrend we had was actually low at 4107, so there is the potential it will be a higher high and therefore not provide much...

10:36

SemperTrader Updated 

So while I didn't get my first entry at 4160, I ended up entering back in where I left off at 4125. Sucks to lose out on that almost $2000, but that is the way of risk management. My key level to watch is where/if this 12hr bar finalizes by 13:00 EST. The last 12hr downtrend was 4060. So if I want to continue following through with this trade, I'd like to see...

07:35

SemperTrader Updated 

So with the close of yesterday, we have the 30m/1hr downtrends being higher lows and being violated significantly. We then got the 2hr/3hr/4hr all as lower lows. The 6hr was in lower low territory for a while, but just before it closed out that bar, we rallied briefly to give us a slight higher low downtrend signal there. So basically, we have the 30m/1hr/6hr vs...

06:20

SemperTrader Updated 

So we spiked up briefly but then got the 30m downtrend yesterday just below where we started. While it is only one trend, and we've managed to keep below the trendline associated with it, the move lessens the promise of an easy and safe entry point at 4185, as the 30m could attempt to move the market up on it's own. I'll most likely put a profit stop now on the...

05:19

SemperTrader Updated 

So with the 6hr uptrend hitting on the major upward move that ended the week, we are maxed out on uptrends yet again. I'd expect at least a brief sell off to get a 30m downtrend, in which I'll be able to set a profit stop and go from there. Earnings season never seems to disappoint in that it drives the market up regardless of other macroeconomic conditions that...

08:18

SemperTrader Updated 

So I was away from my computer and basically just managed a trade via phone and had no way to make an update for yesterday. My analysis was basically close to the same sentiment I had from Wednesday, which was that we had violated too many trends and were going to see a brief rally. From that rally, we now have several trends that when they went uptrend, are...

07:10

SemperTrader Updated 

So I cashed out when we struck the 12hr trendline around 4095 yesterday. With the way the trends are looking I think I'm likely to just sit out for today and let the market play itself out. While I was stopped out and lost nearly half of the surge I gathered in the 6E, between the few hundred on that and the money made on the S&P I've more than surpassed my weekly...

09:07

SemperTrader Updated 

So I'm currently running two shorts, one on the ES! and one on the 6E. I attempted both a Long and Short yesterday, and both were profit stopped for $100, so after only making HKEX:200 yesterday, I waited until the close and then went short on the market into today, ready to bail if the S&P decides to shake off the movement down... again... and rally into the...

08:49

SemperTrader

Major earnings are coming in this week, although not today. Coca Cola was the only major company to report today, and they beat earnings expectations by basically acknowledging they just passed price hikes in production to the consumer. With the bigger Earnings of Google and Microsoft tomorrow, then Amazon and Meta later in the week, I expect tomorrow to begin...

05:20

SemperTrader

So I did dip out yesterday where I said I would, did not get back into the second wave down, and ended with making my weekly goal of $2500. Looking at today, I feel the market is giving off a lot of indecision, and so I've decided to continue with my sentiment, and will likely just sit out today altogether. The trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal...

09:53

SemperTrader Updated 

So I am yet again short at 4180. I've made my weekly goal at this point, and if things rally again back up to 4160 I'll likely just cash out, take my weekly HKEX:2500 quota, and sit out this week. However, trends are beginning to show that dip backwards, even if currently it is only the lower timeframes of the 30m and 1hr. We got lower highs and lower lows off...

10:54

SemperTrader

So after sitting out yesterday, I am short yet again today at 4180. I am looking for some continued downward movement now that we are developing some downtrends, and then I expect the potential of a brief bounce back up. If this is the end of this rally, basically I want to see a good 60 points drop, a 30 point rebound, and then another move back to meet new...