SemperTrader

09:45

SemperTrader

So I ended up jumping out yesterday as the price went up to 4160 for only a 750 gain. I had said my long position was to go in to any appearance that yet another buy the dip mentality surfaced, but I ended up not taking that trade and have no open position at the moment. Heading into today, the issue I see is we are mostly maxed out, yet again, to the uptrends....

07:24

SemperTrader Updated 

So I am short at 4175, still grasping on to the market losing its footing at this level and falling back towards 4000. Friday's dip though was immediately gobbled up and we ended up at basically break even overall on the day. So we shall see. The trends have allowed us some wiggle room to move upward, although we wouldn't be able to get too much higher before we...

06:01

SemperTrader Updated 

So I sat out all of the last two days. I wanted to see some of this rally falter, it did, but then I decided I would wait another day to see how the market reacted, and we end up skyrocketing on low volume yet again. The movement up did give us a Daily Uptrend on the ESM contract, instead of just the ES! overlay. I decided to mark that location since so far the...

05:39

SemperTrader Updated 

So I cashed out my Long yesterday at 4150. Took it as a bonus that I made my weekly goal already. Due to that, I will be sitting out going into the CPI data. Volume remains ultra low, prices remain fairly stagnant, and trends still seem to be maxed out at least calling for some downward movement. I'm attempting to remain open minded to a long position, even...

05:24

SemperTrader

So, while I'm actually Long at the moment from 4120, I still see the market heading south here shortly. I think the lack of volume has caused a delay in the corrective action I'm looking for. I took the Long based on my "Long Position" from yesterday, where I reversed my short into a Long to see if I can skim off the top. I still have numerous indicators and...

08:19

SemperTrader

So I am back in short yet again at 4140, and again expect a movement down to a 6hr downtrend to correct the 6hr violation that occurred. Once we get to that point, I'll evaluate how the move is going to see if I think we will continue to break lower, hold in that area, or the rally will bounce and return. I have a side trade going on the 6E again. Perhaps my...

09:25

SemperTrader Updated 

So I went Long yesterday like I said I would at 4101 (3/4hr downtrends), and then ultimately reversed the position at 4122 (1hr Uptrend). I'm currently holding that trade and looking for it to make a move down to the 6hr downtrend at least. The S&P has really left me underwhelmed this week, and I'd like to try and make a bit more profit from it if possible as...

10:27

SemperTrader Updated 

So we got some initial down movement yesterday that finally challenged this massive upward movements on low volume the last few days. This provided a 30m/1hr/2hr downtrend. I'd expect the price action to recover briefly from here even if we are heading lower. It should be noted that yesterday's down movement was high in volume either. JOLTs data came in below...

10:27

SemperTrader Updated 

So I move it during the video to show the decline in upward trajectory, but the Daily Uptrend has signaled, still a higher high, though less upward movement. The caveat to that is that the ES! contract got the Daily, NOT the ESM. However, the ESM doesn't have a previous Daily Uptrend connection to go off of, because it doesn't have the history to draw from (just...

09:06

SemperTrader Updated 

So I am finally back into the S&P, and short at 4090. We got the 12hr uptrend I wanted, which was just barely a higher high and gives us room to head down and get a new lower low if the market wants to take a dive over the next few months. Lots of commodity prices are rising, bond yields are going up, the value of the dollar is beginning to gain strength, volume...

05:30

SemperTrader

So, the low volume continues to plague these movements. Most of the movements have been in premarket trading now also. I think another day of sit and wait is in order for me. We've gotten the 3hr/4hr/6hr uptrends. The 6hr was a lower high and was immediately violated with no hesitation. The 3hr and 4hr were higher highs, which we also pushed past. With the...

06:53

SemperTrader Updated 

So I may stay out of the ES a bit more today. My ES! analysis says we are prime for a movement down, however, my ESM contract says that we are beginning to fail that down movement and could see a bit more upside. I don't like the divergence, and don't remember a time they were this bad, so I have browsed over to other areas to trade. On the ESM it is clear that...

05:48

SemperTrader Updated 

So I hope you enjoyed the calm. I ended up taking my ball and playing elsewhere. I had said I had a strong sell signal on the Nasdaq going into yesterday, and so even when we were up on the day, I went short, and made my entire weekly goal on the Nasdaq. Additionally, I have that Soybean trade from last week I had talked about, and that is up 40 points for another...

12:52

SemperTrader

So being how Friday ended I am not surprised we've seen some premarket momentum to carry that forward. I don't know that I see us exploding higher as the market opens today, but I wouldn't be surprised if we reach 4040 or so. I'm more expecting us to have a move back down towards 4000 shortly after the open, though I do expect today to be mostly a calm day with...

10:43

SemperTrader Updated 

First off, I just want to say... My 6E (Euro/USD) call was my money maker this morning. I didn't go in overnight, but when I woke up I immediately saw the draw down in the 6E and hopped in. I made about $800 off that, and got out, though I think it could definitely be headed for some more downward movement. However, the S&P Futures is my bread and butter, so I...

10:13

SemperTrader Updated 

One thing I forgot to mention on the video was the low volume from yesterday. FOMC decision days tend to have a higher volume than 1.7 million. That has also left me a bit cautious the downward move may not stick. If it is going to stick, I'd expect some continued downward motion with higher volume and more conviction. Overall, trends on the 1hr/2hr are calling...

08:25

SemperTrader Updated 

I've said it a dozen times... remember that nothing annihilates a technical analysis like key Economic Data. So with that, at 2pm EST, it is the interest rate decision, though really I think it'll be the forward guidance that drives the market up or down. The last time we heard Jerome Powell talk (during his Congressional Hearing) he was rather Hawkish and...

09:33

SemperTrader Updated 

So I went short this morning at 4019 based on a MACD data plot on the ESM contracts. The buy zone on a data plot was 3948, and I feel like that really followed through into today, where my sell plot was to be at 4019. I had a short preset overnight and it struck early this morning. As far as trends, we are beginning to hit a lot of higher timeframe uptrends that...