Shauns_Trading

Shauns_Trading

If we go and hit the mid range of this channel $114, consistent with the peak in 2011 and the peak in 1974 and 1983, then a 0.71 Fib pullback lands us with support EXACTLY on the $50 historical resistance. Fib extending this gain and pullback from this breakout gives a target of $134! Just some technical speculation. After these blow-off-tops, we can expect a...

Shauns_Trading

Chat GPT thinks this will be an immigration and AI led boom: Cycle MACD Trend Period Interpretation 1950s–1970s Rising MACD Post-WWII boom Baby Boom generation, industrial expansion, housing booms, high productivity. 1970s–early 1990s Flattening / declining MACD Stagnation, inflation Oil shocks, stagflation, productivity slowdown despite population...

Shauns_Trading

We see here a parallel log channel of silver / (USM2 / USGDP), which is silver's spread over the ratio of excess M2 to GDP. So as M2 grows over GDP and there is excess liquidity, silver becomes cheaper. As M2 shrinks relative to GDP, silver is more expensive. The cup and handle calculated non-LOG gives a $67 breakout target and target of $128. Or we could...

Shauns_Trading

As we see USM2 Expand along this exponential line we can project around $33 trillion USDM2 around 2032. Silver, which is currently undervalued relative to many assets may fall again against M2, or rise. It seems to have hit resistance currently. Here I have outlined three scenarios: Red: Silver falls against M2, but is nominally higher by 2032 at $43 an...

Shauns_Trading

Silver has been languishing in terms of the fiat dollar for some 45 years. Recent record comex deliveries are hinting at something going on! Silver is actually very rare, with only four ounces above ground in recoverable form for one ounce of gold yet, and is being mined at less than a ten to one ratio with gold, yet is trading at over 80:1. Retail investor...

Shauns_Trading

We see silver is now gaining over GB M2 expansion in GBP. Therefore it is being used as a hedge and offers real gains as well as keeping up with GB M2. With GBM2 doubling every 9 or so years (8.% per annum), by 2035 the bottom, mid and top of the channel will become £50, £92 and £170 is M2 doubles from now.

Shauns_Trading

I think this is the bottom here (again)... We have 3 lovely MACD divergences, and it's just kissed and rejected off of the Fib extension 1.0. Good dividend, good cover, good support for renewables. I'm happy to buy again now.

Shauns_Trading

The NASDAQ, price adjusted for USM2 has hit the DOT COM bubble levels. Could this be the top again, or could it reach higher? It looks very over extended, yet we haven't seen a parabolic, "blow off" phase telling of the end. Some FIB Extentsions indicate significant upside, although we are seeing significant RSI and MACD divergences, indicating a reversal may be coming.

Shauns_Trading

Could we see a return of inflation erode the purchasing power of people's wages again? Potential stagflation scenario? Seeing USM2 exponential growth, it is a possibillity.

Shauns_Trading

Here we see how, despite silver appreciating greatly since 2019, because of the enormous increases in USM1 currency, silver is currently the cheapest in 60 years relative to the M1 Supply (now 18 trillion). In the peaks of 1980 and 2011, where a nominal price of £50 was seen, if we correct that for the huge quantities of fiat currency printed, these adjusted...

Shauns_Trading

If we look at the log chart of silver, we can see a beautiful cup and handle forming. The fib 1.6 extension $84. I am dollar cost averaging into silver currently. Wish I had bought a lot during the plunge in 2020! Could silver finally break out of $50 per oz?

Shauns_Trading

Gas prices are at a multi decade low and consequently energy is very cheap! Yet, when there is a significant divergence from the mean we can expect a Regression toward the mean. Energy prices probably will come back up, and we can expect, unless the company goes under, a return in share prices back towards the VWAP. I'm putting a small amount of my portfolio in...

Shauns_Trading

Here we see BATS cycles with VUKE (Vanguard FTSE 100 ETF). It appears to be the time to buy BATS, but BATS could easily slip out of this Decade long channel...

Shauns_Trading

Here we can see that, although weak, the BATS is not yet recovering, and seems to be stalling. If there was demand we should have seen a good V shaped recovery, perhaps this is a bounce off of some buy orders, and once these have dried up, a drop to the next lot? The MACD Seems to be in a channel.

Shauns_Trading

I missed selling my BATS for VGOV as the right time, so I'm looking for a good position, but am unsure if this is a pullback or reversal. I'm going to use the Daily MACD as my guide to balance.

Shauns_Trading

The chart says it all. This is support, and in real terms, the cheapest the share price has been. I've topped up a little.

Shauns_Trading

Oil is moving up, and, like in 2006-2007 during the hiking cycle, we saw oil jump, pull back and then spike up 150%. So we could be seeing $100 per barrel soon. This is bullish for SQZ, and the price action shows this.

Shauns_Trading

If I held and VUKE (Vanguard FTSE 100 ETF) I would sell it now to buy BATS. BATS is down 25% relative to VUKE and offering 8% dividend yield compared to ~4% for VUKE.