EUR/USD Interest Rate Differential and Economic Data for May 2025: Directional Bias Interest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Cut rates by 25 basis points in March 2025, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. Dovish outlook: Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, with further easing likely if price pressures subside. Federal Reserve...
USDCAD Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (Fed): The Fed’s policy rate is currently around 4.25%–4.50%, having held steady in early May 2025 amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. Bank of Canada (BoC): The BoC has been on a rate-cutting path, with the benchmark rate at 2.75% as of...
Bank of England (BoE): On May 7, 2025, the BoE cut its Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25% (from 4.5%), with a narrow 5–4 vote. Two members wanted a larger cut, while two preferred no change. The decision reflects progress on disinflation and a slowing UK economy, though the rate remains in restrictive territory to keep inflation pressures in...
OPEC+ decisions have a significant and multifaceted impact on oil prices in the near future: Short-Term Impact Supply Increases Lead to Price Drops: Recently, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by about 411,000 barrels per day in May 2025, with plans to accelerate output hikes further in June and beyond, potentially adding up to 2.2 million barrels per day by...
FED cautious wait and see approach is now a strategy officially,we want to see the dance and the direction of the dance before we swing
1. Inverse Correlation Between Gold and the Dollar (DXY) Gold and the U.S. dollar typically share a strong inverse relationship: when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and lowering gold prices, and vice versa. Currently, gold’s 30-day correlation to the DXY stands at around -0.68, confirming this inverse...
THE yellow metal is seeing sell off on fed cautious wait and see approach to interest rate .if they hold it for so long, gold will see deeper correction ,the overall bias remains bullish
Current USOIL Price Drop (May 2025) WTI crude oil (USOIL) has declined sharply in early May 2025, Key drivers include: OPEC+ Surprise Supply Increase: OPEC+ announced plans to raise output in June, reversing earlier production cuts and flooding the market with additional barrels. Tariff-Driven Demand Fears: U.S.-China trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs...
USD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May 2025) Current Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (US): 4.25%–4.50% (held steady on May 7, 2025). Bank of Japan (BoJ): 0.50% (unchanged since March 2025). Differential: ~3.75–4.00%, favoring the USD. This wide gap reflects the Fed’s cautious stance amid tariff-driven inflation risks and the...
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has resumed buying and strengthened recently due to several key factors: Widening Interest Rate Differential and Economic Outperformance The U.S. economy is growing faster than many other major economies, projected at around 2.7% in 2025, while Europe and Japan face weaker growth and deeper rate cuts by their central banks. This growth...
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts. Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement: The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to...
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts. Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement: The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to...
GOLD 15MIN break of structure came for retest and we see a sharp drop in the yellow metal from 3403 to 3384-3385 as anticipated based on 15min break of yesterday consolidated supply roof .if 3384 holds buyers will challenge current all time high ,and if they fail selling will be watched on the break and retest of the 4hr demand floor.
BTC on 4hr we got the structure and focused on other pairs .the price will hit 100k and above today. 108k is my final TP on strategy.
FOMC Interest Rate Decision (May 7, 2025) The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, maintaining its stance since December 2024. The decision reflects heightened uncertainty from escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and mixed economic signals, including stagflation risks (rising unemployment and inflation). Chair Jerome Powell emphasized vigilance...
EUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential, Upcoming Economic Data, and Directional Bias (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential Overview Eurozone (ECB): The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, with inflation forecasts lowered (e.g., core CPI forecast for 2026 revised down to 1.7%). This signals a dovish bias and easing monetary...
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at the May 7, 2025, FOMC meeting, despite strong pressure from President Trump to cut rates. The Fed is taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach as it assesses the economic impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which have raised inflation concerns but also threaten to slow...
China’s massive gold purchases carry significant geopolitical implications that reshape global economic and financial power dynamics: 1. Dedollarization and Reduced US Dollar Dominance China’s aggressive gold accumulation is a core part of its strategy to reduce dependence on the US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic decoupling. By increasing...