SimonJonsson

SimonJonsson

Looking at the very long term, I can see that we will have super strong resistance at 9000 - 10 000. I believe that we will reach this area. For now, for a beginner investor, it's a good idea NOT to make a perfect buy at the bottom, but instead start buying a little every month. Divide your investment capital into 12 and buy stocks/ETFs for 1/12 of your capital...

SimonJonsson

I'm not going to make any prediction for now. However, I would just not be surprised at all if we se $10 in 6-12 months

SimonJonsson

My longer term view is short for 1-3 years, for me means: not so much stocks, alot of cash, trading only a small amount I updated the future projection with some possible time frames it will take to reach a bottom.

SimonJonsson

I am a bit late publishing this idea now since the price has already broken down from the Ascending Broadening Wedge (as it turned out to be, not a normal channel as I painted erlier). Interesting statistics about this formation: thepatternsite.com According to it. 58% change that TP target will be met, that is the bottom level of where the Ascending Broadening...

SimonJonsson

At the maroon colored trend line where the arrow is. Similar line can be drawn on Brent. I will be looking here for price either to break up (then I would consider the oil bear market is finished, however this line is at a higher price if drawn in log-scale) or to turn down again.

SimonJonsson

I will go long if it breaks the pink wedge upwards. Short if it breaks channel bottom

SimonJonsson

Long at the channel bottom. Use tight stops.

SimonJonsson

Neither WTI nor Brent did come down at the top of the downward sloping channel as I had assumed yesterday. They broke up instead, not without fight though as seen at the top of the channel. Now WTI has formed an upward sloping channel, which it also broke up from, and has retested from above. On monday I assume it will move back into this channel, try it's bottom...

SimonJonsson

I did some bad calls today. Price for both WTI and Brent continued higher than what I had anticipated. This strong upward move is probably due to 2 things. 1. A counter move to the heavy fall in oil price the last few days. It fell below any and all possible trendlines and channels basically. 2. It also may have hit a bottom for now, at the pink trend line. I...

SimonJonsson

This might be a very good short. Or Brent might break up. We must wait for some form of confirmation of what to do. Or just take a position in what you believe with a tight stop. I am zoomed in on a tick chart trying to trade this, but I can not give more advice here. My believe here is still short though.

SimonJonsson

I'm a little bit late here and missed the perfect timing myself. Anyway this is a short since it hit the trendline. Might bring equities and indices down with it when it falls. NOTE: Analysis for Brent looks a bit different though (it didn't time a hit at it's trendline at the same time) so this idea might be wrong for that reason.

SimonJonsson

Looking for the bounce to reach at least fib 0.618 from when the crash started. That is around 2000 and I think that could be a great short opportunity. It could reach higher but I will start looking around there.

SimonJonsson

The current crash will bounce at some point. Previously we have reached at least fib 0.618 in the bounces after the trend line break. I'm still looking to get a long in the bottom of this bounce, either in S&P500 or any other index. I'm looking for it to reach fib 0.618 then I will short, heavily. I think the bear market is now as confirmed as it can be.

SimonJonsson

Bottom of trend channel. Simply

SimonJonsson

Fibonacci on DAX in USD value. Top and bottom for the fibonacci are the 2000 top and 2003 bottom respectively. See how well price has reacted to this fibonacci. It has been less reactive to this the last bull market, which is understandable, but it still do have some merit.

SimonJonsson

Fibonacci support in FTSE100 in USD value.

SimonJonsson

DAX is more interesting in USD value. This trend line can not be drawn in DAX normally, but when looked at in USD value. We can draw this trend line that is now broken. In my opinion, long term trend lines that last over several years and then break is the beginning of bear markets. These lines broke several months ago in S&P500 and Dow Industrials, but the...

SimonJonsson

Here I give a clearer picture. Bounce here at around 2025 possibly. This channel in non-log scale is pretty solid! This same channel helped me predict the bottom in October 2014. (many confusing lines here are drawn with log scale, ignore them)