Sive-Morten

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So we've got great entry with our H&S but it is early to relax. To avoid long explanations - BTC has to stay above 105K lows to keep current tendency valid. So, if you still plan to buy BTC here - you do not need to watch for too deep standing Fib levels. If BTC will still drop below 105K, we could get extended downside action to 100K and maybe...

Sive-Morten Updated 

Morning folks, Since our last update action was anemic. Nothing has changed seriously. BTC was able to show just minor upside action. Based on current performance, I do not want to take long position right here and prefer to wait for something more reliable. Because BTC action stands rather different from the one that we expected to see. For example it might be...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, previous setup is done perfect, and BTC even reached 108K area. Now we think that upside potential is limited, at least in short-term. Price is coming to resistance area around 110K and previous top. Some intraday targets point on 112K area as well, but I wouldn't count now on something more extended. The point is US Dollar stands at record...

Sive-Morten Updated 

Morning folks, So, our Thu setup is done perfect, both targets are met and even more. Now we consider two different fast trades on BTC. Now context remains bearish and 103K is rather strong 4H resistance area. So, first trade is scalp "Sell" from ~ 103K with "at least" target of 101K. In fact, choosing of 101K as a minimal target is based on the 2nd...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, As you can see, not occasionally last time we chose only nearest 107K and 109K targets. Market indeed looks a bit heavy. Now short-term context turns bearish and we consider reaching of 99K target as rather high. Next potential target area is 97.K - butterfly target and daily Fib support. Obviously now we do not consider any new longs and need...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, position taking stage is done, now let's take a look at targets. In general we have a sequence of a few targets, starting from 107.6-107.8, 109-110, 113 and 116K. But in current situation I would watch for only first two. Daily overbought is around 114, so 116K target seems too far. 113K is possible, but with rather extended downside action...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, As we've suggested upward action happened. Now overall situation stands relatively easy to understand. 100K seems like short-term vital area for upside tendency. While two support levels of 106.5K and 104.5K are those which market has to hold to keep tendency intact. I would even prefer 106.5K area because this is also natural support line and...

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Morning folks, So, drop is done due to Trump-Musk conflict, although we haven't called to trade it. Anyway, current picture is much better and doesn't need a lot of comments. We have reverse H&S in progress, with potential area for entry around 102.5-103K where we expect the right arm should appear. Invalidation point is ~100K (bottom of the head).

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, Not many changes since our last discussion. Yes BTC moved slightly lower, as we suggested, but you can see by yourself - action is very slow and lazy. Usually when bears control the market, action has to be stronger. It means that overall context remains bearish but it is weak and not very attractive for trading, although it is not forbidden of...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, Last time BTC was not able to provide the direction as it was standing in triangle and we prepared "neutral" update, waiting for triangle breakout. Now we see that this has happened to the downside and market just stands slightly above XOP target. So we consider 98-101K area as the nearest target. Second, once (and if) this action will be over...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, downside AB-CD action is started as we suggested. But, it is very slow and going heavy. Appearing of triangle shape here and early signs of bullish dynamic pressure on daily chart turns the balance slightly on the bullish side. Still, we do not have yet any clear patterns that makes us sure. So, if you're conservative - it would be better to...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, Now we do not see yet any background for a "big game". Market needs time to manifest the next step. We said previously that it might be either direct upside action or big reverse H&S on weekly chart. Now it is too few time passed to understand this. On a daily chart we have bearish context and engulfing pattern. So all that we have for Mon-Tue...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, last time BTC was not able to show retracement that we've suggested. In fact by the end of the session, no reversal day was formed. It was some fake alarm. Our long-term 110K target has been completed, so monthly grabber has reached the minimum target. But for now we see nothing to do. We consider no shorts. Market stands confidently around...

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Morning folks, So, last setup worked just partially - action started from 101K as suggested but BTC completed only 1.27 butterfly target, showing sharp reversal. Current reversal is important because market is neither on some target, resistance or overbought. It means that reversal is driven by external factors. Although our long-term bullish view is still...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, since Monday situation barely has changed. As we said - retracement should be small and we pointed 101K support area. 98K is also nice but it is a kind of vital area for this setup. Now you could see everything goes great. Market is moving out of 101K. Here is two shapes might be - immediate upside action by butterfly, or still, a bit deeper...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, everything goes with the plan and we still consider 110-111K area as the nearest target. At the same time this area agrees with weekly and daily overbought, so direct upside breakout hardly possible. Naturally, when the market is already near the target it doesn't show deep retracement. Thus, we suggest that either upward action continues...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, the pullback to 88-89K area that we discussed last time has not happened. Market turns to direct upside continuation. Now it has no big barriers ahead, which means that 110K is the major target for now. On Intraday charts we have another one - 102.5K which is the nearest one. We consider no shorts by far. For long entry you could use any...

Sive-Morten

Morning folks, So, upside spike has happened and our 3-Drive + butterfly patterns are done. Although we haven't got continuation to 98K area that also was on a table. Now short-term sentiment has changed. Recent data shows that the Fed doesn't need to hurry up with rate cut, yields turns up, so BTC also could follow the common tendency with deeper retracement....