SkylimitBreakPoint

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

EUR/GBP – Short Fundamental Analysis 1. Context • European Central Bank (ECB) • Signs of potentially easing or pausing rate hikes around Q2 2025 if growth remains sluggish. • Inflation within the Eurozone is easing but still slightly above the ECB’s 2% target. • Bank of England (BoE) • Maintains relatively high interest rates to curb persistent inflation in...

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

EUR/JPY – Short Fundamental Analysis 1. Context • European Central Bank (ECB) • Indications suggest potential easing (or at least a pause in hikes) starting around Q2 2025, as Eurozone growth remains moderate. • Inflation in the Eurozone has started to decline, though still slightly above the ECB’s long-term target. • Bank of Japan (BoJ) • Maintains...

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

GBP/JPY – Short Fundamental Analysis 1. Context • Bank of England (BoE) • Has maintained relatively high interest rates to combat persistent inflation in the UK. • Debate continues on whether the BoE will deliver further hikes or pause in the face of a slowing economy. • Bank of Japan (BoJ) • Still implements an ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping rates...

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

• Context: • RBNZ: Signaled nearing the peak of the rate-hike cycle, while inflation is stabilizing. • Domestic Economy: Strong reliance on agricultural exports and Asian demand. • Possible Direction: • Bias: Slightly bearish, given the Fed’s more restrictive monetary stance. • Catalysts: News on the dairy market (Fonterra) and New Zealand macro data.

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

• Context: • SNB: Still a cautious approach, with relatively high rates to manage inflation. • Safe Haven: Both CHF and USD are safe-haven currencies, but in the current context, the USD is favored due to higher yields. • Possible Direction: • Bias: Slightly bullish for USD/CHF, though less pronounced than other pairs, given CHF’s “safe-haven”...

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

• Context: • BoC: Relatively high rates; Canada is heavily reliant on oil markets, which can impact CAD. • Oil: If prices rise, CAD tends to be supported; if they fall, USD/CAD goes up. • Possible Direction: • Bias: Slightly bullish for USD/CAD, especially if US data remain solid. • Catalysts: Oil price developments and Canadian economic data.

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

• Context: • RBA: Has allowed pauses in rate hikes due to global economic slowdown and dependence on China. • External Factors: Demand for commodities, developments in commodity markets, Chinese data. • Possible Direction: • Bias: Slightly bearish on AUD against the USD if the Fed remains hawkish and global growth doesn’t pick up. • Catalysts: Chinese data...

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

• Context: • BoE: Rates have stayed high in an attempt to fight inflation; speculation remains whether the BoE will continue hikes or begin to soften policy. • UK Economy: Modest growth, but inflationary pressures persist. • Possible Direction: • Bias: Slightly bearish, though GBP may show more resilience if the BoE maintains a hawkish tone. • Catalysts: UK...

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

Context: • Fed: High interest rates and robust macro data in the US (GDP +2.6%, unemployment ~3.7%). • ECB: Indications of a possible monetary policy easing starting Q2 2025. • Possible Direction: • Bias: Slightly bearish due to the interest rate differential favoring the USD. • Corrective Rallies may occur if EU data surprises on the upside.

SkylimitBreakPoint Feb 11

• Context: • BoJ: Ultra-loose monetary policy; minor tweaks possible if Japan’s inflation remains above expectations, but a major change is still delayed. • Fed: High rates → attracts capital flows into the dollar and US Treasuries. • Possible Direction: • Bias: Bullish (USD appreciates against JPY) given the contrast between Fed and BoJ policies. • Watch...