TraderBwater

TraderBwater Updated 

We are at a decisive point here as the drop has been at an important support. If it continues to break, we will continue with the downtrend. But the uptrend scenario is still the preferred one: with the leading diagonal and a 3-wave correction. If the bullish scenario is correct, we should have a strong bounce from here. Once it breaks above the resistance, we...

TraderBwater

The shooting star candle on the weekly last week points to weakness at least in the short term. The question is: is this just a short-term pullback (blue arrow) or it's the top for a long-term correction (yellow arrow)? Looking at the RSI on the monthly and weekly, it has never taken the top of the peak and the rally from the bottom has been in 3 waves. I highly...

TraderBwater

Apple is still doing a 3-wave correction from Dec 2021. Last Thursday's 4+% gain showed 5 waves but I believe it is the C leg of an ABC correction from March, as shown in the daily chart. Such a strong move as day one from the bottom is typical for a "short squeeze" or a "bear market rally" because Apple has been down a lot already from the top. A true bottom...

TraderBwater Updated 

Hitting moving average and failed. RSI shows that the recent rally was a bear market rally. Good candidate to short with good RR. First target the yelow zone (although it can drop lower). Still a long way to fall. Long-term chart looks bad too. I will never long NASDAQ:PYPL

TraderBwater

Wheat has finished 5 waves down of the expanded flat structure that started in Mar 2008. The next up should be a rally to ATH. Inflation is coming.

TraderBwater

UNH is correcting the cycle from Mar 2020 and is near a significant bottom. Most likely it will bounce followed by a marginal low. Great generational long opportunity, with stop set at 409.

TraderBwater

Mar 27 Wed's false breakout was an x wave, followed by a quick reversal down. This wave down should be in 5 waves. Bulls should be patient to wait to go long again till at least the end of April / May. Watch when RSI breaks below wave 2, correction would be almost finished.

TraderBwater

Divergences have been observed on multiple time frames for BAC and basically $IWM. Unless it keepes extending, the top is most likely in. The drop below the 36.8 area would confirm that.

TraderBwater

AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT CAPITALCOM:RTY small caps hit major resistance (the yellow zone) and finished the day with a shooting star candle. More downside is needed. This syncs with other indices NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY

TraderBwater

Don't be fooled by the 4.6% gain on Mar 28 (last trading day of March). Unless it is followed by another day of further upside, I believe that it would need to go down more to finish the WXY correction. The same pattern with the IWM and other small caps.

TraderBwater Updated 

CELH gapped up today and is close to a short-term top to correct the rally from January 2024. It can go a bit higher max up to 108.22. The gap up in the last wave could be an exhaustive gap. With RSI divergence in this final wave, we could be near the top. Watch it closely in 30-min time frame and if it breaks below today's low, it's a sign that the top is in.

TraderBwater

Crude Oil NYSE:CL and energy stocks can expect a drop now below the December 2023 lows to get the final leg down to finish the year-long correction since 2022. This is confirmed by NYSE:XOM in the monthly chart which shows that the long-term correction is not yet done.

TraderBwater

Gold and gold miners are at a critical point where they have either topped or are near the top. At this quarterly chart, Gold made a higher high while GDX (which is weaker than Gold) made a lower high. The higher high (false breakout) in Gold registered lower RSI momentum on the quarterly chart (with 1 more week to finish this candle) showing it is most likely...

TraderBwater

Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD , AMEX:GLD ) in its quarterly chart clearly shows that the upswing seriously lack momentum and is most likely followed by a drop. This is coupled with a bullish US dollar ( TVC:DXY ) as seen in the monthly probably to retrace to the 0.618 area of the previous drop.

TraderBwater

NASDAQ:AMD is due for a bounce to around 200 before dropping further. Same with other tech and semiconductors. Sell-off could begin on Friday. NASDAQ:SMCI NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY

TraderBwater Updated 

The bullish sequence in NVDA is incomplete. It needs one more new high. Compared with other tech/semi-conductors like AMD and SMCI which have already broken down, it is possible that NVDA would be the last giant standing making a new ATH while the others made a lower high before everyone rolls over.

TraderBwater

Here's a comparison of the right and wrong Elliott wave count with the help of RSI.

TraderBwater

The top is in. But short-term: there should be one more bounce to trap shorts and finish the x wave before a strong fall on Wednesday/FOMC. Short traders should wait for Wednesday.