Trading-Capital

02:59

Trading-Capital

Nat gas still fits all the criteria for a large downtrend. Lower highs & Lower lows are still in place on the weekly timeframe. This obviously swings probabilities in favour of lower price. However historically were still at some oversold levels. Just because this asset is oversold honest mean it can't go lower. Im watching the daily 50MA & 200MA...

04:58

Trading-Capital

We secured half of our profits yesterday, however I still think we have a very good chance of higher price. Nat gas needs to make a decision by getting above this key Covid trend line. We are observing another "death cross" formation developing. If price action keeps rejecting the daily 200MA we may go lower. Today inventories came out: consensus was 42B...

04:30

Trading-Capital

We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates. Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom. Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation? Is the bond market pricing in a recession? I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness. Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper. This drives the disinflationary...

22:27

Trading-Capital

Markets move higher, despite no participation from MSFT. NVDA could rally into earnings. IWM & KRE looking bearish. Yield curve still inverted with lower high rejection. SPY outperforming QQQ

04:11

Trading-Capital

The S&P 500 closed the weekly firmly. Finally putting in a high volume reversal, has the SPX bottomed here? One thing is for sure we are still putting in higher highs & higher lows on the weekly time frame. Until we see the markets give us that lower weekly high its still a tough market to short. We think about the decline in semis and megacaps after...

06:16

Trading-Capital

Nat gas has carved out a nice potential base to move higher. We have seen a failed breakdown whcih usualkly indicates a bullish reversal. They say the biggest moves come from failed patterns an it certainly looks like a failed bearish trendline break. If this is the case, Nat gas has a nice 15-20% upside before things get really interesting. We may be...

Trading-Capital

Where is the S&P500 going with this recent decline? We can observe to key parallel channels that have acted as support and resistance both in the near and short term. The Uplsoping channel in on watch as price action is struggling to close back above. As long as we remain in the upsloping channel we have to observe the risk of falling to the lower boundary...

10:04

Trading-Capital

Strong AMD earnings rection pushed Semis higher....NVDA was the sympathy trade whihc became the primary. Trimmed Disney profits. Meta strong earnings / ARM weak earnings Oil mega reversal / Nat gas weak. Powell Dovish/ Yields drop /

04:28

Trading-Capital

Bitcoin keeps finding sellers off the SWB:69K previous all time high 2021 resistancce. We have not had a definitive break above that are for quiet a long time. If the bears reject price again were likely going back to 50K. If the bulls can get above this level and hold some weekly closes we may have a move to 95K in a few months. Very ley price action is...

09:00

Trading-Capital

Natural gas has seen a failed breakout on the daily chart. After this failed breakout occured its been weeks of relentless sell side pressure. We have lost key weekly and daily supports, which doesn't help the bullish case. There is 1 small positive on the daily chart: a positive RSI bullish divergence. Understanding how this commodity works, one should be...

01:43

Trading-Capital

Another sell side day for nat gas...what else is new? back to the same technical support trend line for Nat gas. technically this is support. If this trend line holds we will see an epic bounce IMO. If we break this are we could be testing $1.90. I believe that this is still a great risk to reward to accumulate for the long term, while understanding there...

06:27

Trading-Capital

The SPY and IWM have completely diverged. On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names. A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off. The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below. Although this is typically...

Trading-Capital

Crowdstrike has been demolished in recent session on the back of poor Cybersecurity news / IT OUTAGES. This type of sell usually gets a dead cat bounce like we saw in December of 2021. However this decline usually proceeds more selling. Notice how price respected each Fib level, but it did challenge and pierce each Fib level, shaking out buyers and sellers. ...

19:19

Trading-Capital

Markets surge off rate cut comments before CPI hits 2% Nat Gass bouncing hard. Yields quietly moving higher. Bitcoin not participating with risk assets today. Google earnings on watch / Cloud stocks

02:26

Trading-Capital

The yield curve invesrion remains in place for the longest historical inversion run. This cant be good right? History shows once the spread between the 10 & 2 corrects back to normal / un-inverts you usually get a sell signal in the market. We are observing a massive bullish wedge pattern unfolding and looks poised at any moment to breakout. The un-...

09:45

Trading-Capital

Today #tesla saw one of the greatest intraday reversal candles. Immense volume behind the decline.. Very weak market + negative headline regarding The Robotaxi being delayed. In a matter of hours Tesla has engulfed 4 bullish days of price. We also may have a weekly topping tail forming which could signify further weakness. If Tesla fails at his breakout,...

03:00

Trading-Capital

Natural gas just keeps bleeding lower. Despite the oversold intra day condition this commodity is finding no support. Natural gas equities are mixed right now, but are definitely showing some signs of accumulation. We think the next 2 support zones on Nat gas if we lose this critical area are $2.21 & $2.00 Beware Nat gas tends to overshoot. This trendline...

03:43

Trading-Capital

Natural gas has no bullish momentum in the near term. Each pop gets faded. Prior day low needs t ohold or we take the next candle down. We re approaching a key zone very quickly. I am looking for a capitulation bar down.