VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR May 6, 2024

5/6/24 - vrockstar - losing a post here to simply alert my fam of ppl who read these that this is type of name that's getting killed on anything less than a stellar print. 10x sales for high single digit plus growth and decent but not awesome profitability (1-2% fcf yield) is going to probably get dumped on a beat/ up 5-10% and not stick. any miss sends this thing...

VROCKSTAR May 6, 2024

5/6/24 - vrockstar - like the narrative here all around (ai-support) but w/ AMD's comments, rates holding back b2b spending... i could see more risk to longs here vs. shorts. so while i think the right way to look at this is '25 EPS, any re-rate to '24 here would pull that $2.7/shr down to perhaps 2.5$ and that's about 12-15% annualized cagr depending on how...

VROCKSTAR May 6, 2024

5/6/24 - vrockstar - not gonna short this b/c i agree w the bulls on the "LT" here... but nearly 20x sales, pretty forecastable model and unlikely to "smash" raise limits my interest in a heady tape. keep in my any big upside probably gets distributed/ sold down (there's your short if so inclined/ possibly ex post). any miss or growth reset dumps this 20%...

VROCKSTAR May 6, 2024

5/6/24 - vrockstar - punting long here. Spac's all look like trash, so for s/t that's trading like the rest 1) the lift to sustained bid is defn requiring a great catalyst - and this seems like a decent biz w/ potential benefits of a stay-at-home-things-r-too-expensive-eCONomy and 2) cash gen, not burner, good balance sheet/ clean, "growing" or at least that's the...

VROCKSTAR May 2, 2024

5/2/24 - vrockstar - good print, decent guide (let's be honest, better execution than other B2B style software), valuation reasonable 5x sales w/ opex leverage and good SMB moat and maintaining >20% pa CAGR growth rates w/ a lot of runway. conservatively modeling cash in my prop model, seeing dramatic upside here is probably not likely until we see some sort of...

VROCKSTAR May 2, 2024

5/2/24 - vrockstar - hard to not opine here. valuation is v reasonable compared to the TNX and other big liquid tech considering play on AI integration (tools), VR/AR (even if it's small doesn't matter at all... rn - it's relevant for longevity of growth), services will continue to grow in the mix. lots you can do here. they have so much cash they can only do one...

VROCKSTAR May 2, 2024

5/2/24 - vrockstar - tough setup b/c the trends look mediocre at best (esp recent ones). long term compounder w/ awesome moat growth at 4x revenue and 2y fwd PE in the high 20s isn't "expensive" for this type of 30-40% cagr. however, any miss/ investment issues here will dramatically reset the # and the multiple... i'm definitely biased long here but would rather...

VROCKSTAR May 2, 2024

5/2/24 - vrockstar - seems a bit rich at 8x sales for sub 10% growth. cash machine, won't have the "guide" problem (well as much as more obvious candidates per the product niche/ security cyber). that being said, high 30s PE just buys you a better aapl, msft, slightly more obvious see-through risk. i'd look to short an outsized pop here to the range highs of mid...

VROCKSTAR May 2, 2024

5/2/24 - vrockstar - one of these awkward fundamental setups in a bid tape b/c it seems like outside a massive beat you won't see any sustained rip and follow thru here and instead 2Q guide is likely all else equal to reflect others so far reported (too many to even number). stock seems to have not believed this which is cool - i haven't really dug in yet on the...

VROCKSTAR May 2, 2024

5/2/24 - vrockstar - like the setup long here into print. 1) trends probably a 50/50 but 2) not a "discretionary" seller but more a platform for discretionary choice which is an interesting product in this environment esp wrt speech about 2H etc. 2) not really a burner much at all, and beyond healthy cash balance so no dilution/ raise/ sustainability q's about the...

VROCKSTAR May 2, 2024

5/1/24 - vrockstar - taking a look again post eps 10% drop and can't find the reason to take beyond a trading position if say opens in the mid 150s. why? overhang from the 3Q result (-40%) on BETI remains a PTSD event/ still w/ wait and see, the 4Q result didn't bring much improvement and now 2Q guide is weakish. this isn't unique to the co, so not specifically a...

VROCKSTAR May 1, 2024

5/1/24 - vrockstar - like the prints so far this year, great niche, good b2b unaffected by consumer issues all around but valuation not "obvious" outside of a beat which they should deliver on the MSD range top line. any miss or in line would probably yield a 10-15% correction where you can dip buy w/ more confidence which is my plan. otherwise sidelines on a good...

VROCKSTAR Apr 30, 2024

4/30/24 - vrockstar - obviously expensive but the EPS growth allows to make up whatever multiple. one of few co's that is probably minimally 2 yrs away from whatever nvda is putting out and has capacity to absorb something similar (e.g. groq) or partner w/ someone else. think the narrative on semis remains strong/ bid and any beat here will be a rip and stick. any...

VROCKSTAR Apr 30, 2024

4/30/24 - vrockstar - don't see how they "miss" per se but it's more a valuation equation for me. think guide should be bullish bc it's easy to sell upside here. probably better to just buy amd/ nvda though as any "miss" is hard to dip buy, any beat might be distribution event with low follow thru. i'm potentially buying a dip on a bad amd/ amzn print that sucks...

VROCKSTAR Apr 30, 2024

4/30/24 - vrockstar - tape seems to like these non-ai disruptable names w/ px'ing power, 22x fwd EPS (and growing) seems "cheap" (not really but compared to everything else). good fcf generation. good box open potential. they sell legal drugs. net +ve result here esp seeing the stock float in a bad tape means it's haven.

VROCKSTAR Apr 27, 2024

4/27/24 - outsized move for the stock on eps -17% seems too much. however, growth subdued for next 2 yrs doesn't help. even 8% implied fcf yield while juicy and sticky-ish base... is not exactly what the mkt wants to pay for this -ve growth i'm sensing - it's probably closer to 10% for this type of scale + net cash + sub 5x EV/revenue multiple names. downside here...

VROCKSTAR Apr 25, 2024

4/25/24 - vrockstar - first time i come across this ticker (i look at a lot), wow. great opex flex. software-ish margins, not expensive on various multiples i look at vs. growth looks awesome. chart yes. am i missing anything frens, i think i'm just buying this print b/c i like everything i see including cash gen, captive industry that's bit less discretionary....

VROCKSTAR Apr 25, 2024

4/25/24 - vrockstar - seems like we're a bit long in the tooth here right fam? 1% fcf yield lmfao, 30x PE, yes we can see thru what our lizards have coming in the next disaster which certainly deserves a premium. but zuck and aapl r ahead (way ahead i'd argue) in the next compute platform. not knocking cloud, installed b2b, games etc. but just look elsewhere ppl...