Vol_to_Valuation

Vol_to_Valuation

The 90-day correlation between $BTC and $QQQ currently stands at 72% (42% is the avg since 2019). 1 of 2 things will occur: 1. The correlation maintains elevated as Bitcoin becomes a stable in asset class allocation strategies by institutions (adoption is here to stay) 2. A divergence of large-cap public equities and Bitcoin occurs. Hard to say what would cause...

Vol_to_Valuation

S&P 500 ($SPY) sitting on the anchored VWAP. Decided to choose the starting point as the first time we hit current prices ($447). Investors are in the middle of a seesaw right now, a material movement in either direction, IMO, will decide which direction we go. Arguments to the downside: no reason we should only be 5% off all-time highs when earnings growth...

Vol_to_Valuation

Long-term regression trend on 10yr treasuries just broke above +2 StDev at 2.2%. Assumption: Fed raises rates to eventually bring them back down in a year or two.

Vol_to_Valuation

Is this finally a breakout for $BTC or just another bear market rally for Bitcoin? Time will tell but looks promising

Vol_to_Valuation

Could be a chart crime, could not be. I may just be seeing a coincidence, but AUD/JPY currency pair has been tracking pretty well with Bitcoin over the past two years. Thoughts?

Vol_to_Valuation

Let's take a look at some historical bear market rallies for the S&P 500. I cherry picked these dates, but I think they're comparable. Over the past 21 years there have been 9 bear market rallies exhibiting: ▪️Avg. price return of ~11.62% ▪️Avg. duration of ~47 days Currently, I believe we are in a bear market rally and it's almost time that market prices start...

Vol_to_Valuation

Until U.S. debt loads get to more normalized levels (below 80%) and the 10Y treasury yield has a far enough spread from the short-end of the curve, the Federal Reserve's hand is almost forced in what they can do from a rate tightening perspective.

Vol_to_Valuation

Throughout the past year and a half, the RSI indicator trend line has been a good indicator of a buy signal after reverting upon trend.

Vol_to_Valuation

Short-term peaks in S&P 500 constituents above 50D MA (breadth) slightly front-running ST peaks in the S&P 500. Current constituents above 50D MA = 46%

Vol_to_Valuation

Some subscribe to market cycles in terms of the Elliot Wave Theory where market progress in 5 stages (1-2-3-4-5) and correct in 3 stages (A-B-C) before returning to a new longer-term bullish trend. Personally, I do not subscribe to their market cycle structure but is interesting to see it play out in price for the S&P 500 on a weekly basis back to COVID-19 lows...

Vol_to_Valuation

Top section is average 30-year fixed mortgage rates minus US 30Y treasury, and the bottom is them separated. Average US mortgage rates (blue) started to move ahead of treasury rate and expect 30Y treasury to move above 3% this year

Vol_to_Valuation

The S&P 500 just rebounded off of a six standard deviation move since COVID-19 lows back in March 2020. I'm terrible at timing tops and bottoms but it appears the bottom could be in soon. One day doesn't make a trend reversal but the next 4 trading days will be interesting to see given the Fed speaking on Wednesday (1/26/22) and all the big constituents report...

Vol_to_Valuation

Worst January performance on record at current levels.

Vol_to_Valuation

The Nasdaq 100 may have just put in it's bottom around -10.5% drawdown over the past 2 months. For this bottom to truly be in, I need to see at least $377. The 185-215EMA cloud (in blue) appears to be holding as nice support but could be a head-fake. 1/21/22 pricing will give me key insights into whether or not this is hype or a trend reversal, stay tuned!

Vol_to_Valuation

Over the past 30 years markets have been digesting interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. I believe this cycle will be no different. In modern markets, the S&P 500 has went on to return 14%, 21%, 40%, & 55% from the first rate hike to the peak rate. This initial correction will phase out and broader markets will run closely with fundamentals.

Vol_to_Valuation

The energy sector is looking to breakout of a 2-year consolidation phase. Perhaps 3rd time is a charm. Largest components of $XLE include: Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Chevron ($CVX), EOG Resources ($EOG), Schlumberger ($SLB), & ConocoPhillips ($COP).

Vol_to_Valuation

Bitcoin's chart on the weekly is at such an interesting place right now hovering around the 50 EMA as well as the 38.2% fib retracement level. I think January will be a more sideways movement with volatility continuing but I can't see how we don't return to a bullish trend in February into year-end unless we have some extreme catalyst. Institutional adoption is...

Vol_to_Valuation

Through 2021 the 7 day MA of the total Put/Call volume tends to be a good indicator for short-term bottoms in the S&P 500. As expected, heightened volatility is in store. I expect lower prices to come and start to revert around $462-$464.