Vol_to_Valuation

Vol_to_Valuation

Strong ADP jobs report showing 807K jobs vs 400K expectations. The main jobs report is on Friday (1/7//22), and I expect us to beat the 400K expectations and report ~570K jobs. Hopefully Omicron doesn't make the return of employment drag out more. Rolling 2Y correlation between the two around 70% after normalizing for COVID volatility in 2020.

Vol_to_Valuation

Currently over 57% of circulating supply has not moved in at least 1 year (some of which is lost coins). Some may call this a supply squeeze as this indicator trends up, we see less selling pressure relative to circulating supply so in theory if demand (buying) comes back online strong than we should see price appreciation. This chart in 2022 will be interesting...

Vol_to_Valuation

This chart may help explain a return to a stronger labor market. In blue is the personal savings rate (% of PDI) & the amount of people unemployed (orange). As savings are used up, people may look to employment for additional capital to support their living. Rolling 2yr-r = 83%

Vol_to_Valuation

Doing this just purely for fun so bear with me. Let's assume some voodoo patterns are going on with Bitcoin where the peak-to-peak cycles are lengthening by 22 bars (669 days, NICE) each cycle (1st cycle 27 bars then 49 bars then 71 bars), that would put the next macro peak around November 2023. Now let's assume price appreciation from peak-to-peak is consistent...

Vol_to_Valuation

The top chart is Bitcoin's longer-term (Apr-June) 2021 Fibonacci retracement levels where price action is deciding on holding a key 50% level at ~$47,000 and the lower chart is the same but with a short-term Fibonacci retracement level in the recent declines (Nov-Dec). $46,000 to $51,000 is essentially no man's land. Until we see price action break below or above,...

Vol_to_Valuation

I don't know about you but the fib extension on $DIS worked like clockwork. $DIS has now recouped pre-COVID ATH levels and the trend is appearing to reverse. This will be interesting to watch in 2022. Head on over to @LamontyTrades on Twitter if you enjoy the content! Thanks,

Vol_to_Valuation

$SPY $480 likely with 2021 regression trend (+/- 2 STDEV). Expecting continued volatility into 2022.

Vol_to_Valuation

21 out of the last 28 December's have been positive for the S&P 500. COVID crisis draws many similarities to the GFC (both highlighted in bottom section). I believe December closes positive for 2021.

Vol_to_Valuation

This chart attempts to draw similarities between Bitcoin during the 2013 bull market and Bitcoin today. In blue, is a way of illustrating Bitcoin's demand in relation to supply, in other words it is simply Bitcoin's total number of active addresses divided by Bitcoin's total circulating supply (addresses per coin) LOG scaled. In orange, is Bitcoin's price. If we...

Vol_to_Valuation

$51,000 the next major resistance area on $BTC. Volume since the start of the new upward trend (prior 45 days) appears to be clustering around the 200 and 20 EMAs. Volume pickup above $47,000 will indicate to be that this bullish trend continues.

Vol_to_Valuation

Strong support appears to be holding for Bitcoin around $47,000. Fully expect next leg up above $50,000 in September. #Bitcoin

Vol_to_Valuation

Constituents above 50MA & YTD price returns: Large-Cap: 62%, Up 20% Mid-Cap: 65%, Up 17% Small-Cap: 61%, Up 20% It makes sense that large-caps are expressing the largest divergence between returns & constituents given the concentration of the index and no upper market-cap bound. Large-Cap AMEX:SPY Mid-Cap AMEX:MDY Small-Cap AMEX:SLY

Vol_to_Valuation

$BTC volume clustering around key Fibonacci levels. Volume Cluster #1 @ 23.6% Fib: $37,150 Volume Cluster #2 @ 50% Fib: $46,732 Volume Cluster #3 @ 78.6% Fib: $57,114 Trend still in-tact and holding PT @ $80,000 by year-end. #Bitcoin

Vol_to_Valuation

Since COVID bottoms the S&P 500 has touched the 50 EMA 10 times. We may be in the process of another touch very shortly. A breakdown below $420 will make the 50 EMA resistance. Do we bounce or nah?

Vol_to_Valuation

The Golden Dragon index may be approaching strong support at 200 week MA as investors digest regulatory changes to China's tech and education sectors.

Vol_to_Valuation

$BTC short liquidation feeds longs. Amazon rumors just icing on the cake. Exiting "No Man's Land" (> $40K) will be tough but I don't think the rally is over. Next target $42K and then off to $50K. Still holding personal PT at > $80K by year-end.

Vol_to_Valuation

Bitcoin appears to be establishing $30,000 as a very strong support area. Further catalysts will need to come in July for this to breakout. Cross below $28,000 could further lead to $20,000 and from there establish another bull trend going into the next halving (~March 2024).

Vol_to_Valuation

I put this template together to track sector rotations based upon yield changes. Since August 2021 rates have incrementally risen on the 5,10, & 30 year treasuries (top pane). This provides support for value outperforming growth (second pane), illustrated by the Russell 1000 Value ETF outperforming the Russell 1000 Growth ETF. Finally, to visualize this effect on...