Price Action Recap (Last 4 Trading Days):
Day 1 (8/5 Thu): High volatility
Day 2 (9/5 Fri): Inside bar — consolidation
Day 3 (12/5 Mon): Gapped up post-15:00 on tariff news
Day 4 (13/5 Tue): Failed to follow through → another inside bar
🧯 Volatility is now at recent lows, and today's price action lacked direction.
📊 Despite still trading above MA10...
Using the 200 Week Moving Average,
we spot that stock crashes often relate with drop in short term bond yields.
Prior to 2008, yield rates usually drop by a few percents by hardly below 0.5%.
However since QE in 2008, bond yield decrease to a nearly 0% level.
These features allow us to spot these financial crisis on the graph easily.
However, whether if this...
Given the spot of bullish divergence in RSI,
and that 1-2-3-4-5 is potentially completed,
I would like to change my prediction from a bearish market to a bullish market.
The retracement to $115 will be completed in future months.
I estimate 9618 will be raising as B in this month
9988 may be going on a bullish 12345 or a big B.
However, since no bullish divergence for RSI right now,
we can forsee 9988 will still be raising in the coming week.
