Just a simple chart showing the potential schematic that BTC is following at the moment. We might see one final push to the 42K levels before heading straight down to 30K levels.
Keeping track of BTC's weekly movement. We are currently within th swing trading range of the weekly, so its safe to say that we are at 50-50 given that we just bounced off a fresh weekly demand.
Assuming we are in the Wyckoff distribution phase, my sentiment is still bearish. I believe that we may have to revisit the sub-30K levels to achieve a new all-time high.
A chart analysis detailing two possible scenarios without using any indicators, just pure price action.
Every time that BTC breaks down of the 100MA in the daily timeframe, we see around 50-55% pullback and then a pump afterwards. Coincidentally, a 50% drop from here would perfectly land at our next strongest support after 40K, which is 28.8K.
As we can see, every time it dipped below 100MA on the daily it dropped around 50-55% which if it happens again this time, we're seeing another touch to 28K.
Added the next golden pocket area and the new point of invalidation of the currently plotted fib retracement.
Plotting of the overall trend of DOT and some support and resistances that I can spot. I also plotted the golden pocket area for extra reference.
We can see that DOT is still within the rising channel that it has made, albeit being at the bottom half of it.
There are three scenarios here that I see playing out: 1. We pump straight up right now 2. We form the second half of the double bottom (possibly consolidate/range a bit in the area) 3. Form an IHS with the head bouncing on either 54K or trendline
I really think that DOT has already priced in looking for a health retracement back to 38 or even the 30 area. Death cross also spotted in the 4H timeframe which may indicate that we are gonna be bearish midterm. We can play out the potential double bottom/IHS first before we dump and play out the bearish cross though so monitor closely.