andrewtreilly

andrewtreilly

This is an interesting and reliable setup taking place. If you notice all the vertical red lines show a period close to or at a 125 day low in volatility. Also take note of the price relative to its location of the Bollinger Bands. Two things seem to happen a few days after the vertical red lines which signifies the low point of volatility. Volatility picks up and...

andrewtreilly

As my bearish gold call materializes, I must be aware of the 50 day ema. For all the reasons previously stated, gold is moving lower and it makes sense based on the patterns, divergences, support broken, etc. However, the 50 day ema support level can easily wipeout bearish sentiment if it holds. The 50 day ema is far more powerful than the multiple reasons to...

andrewtreilly

Nat gas is currently still in its long term H&S pattern and it might be forming the right shoulder. As we speak it is holding a bullish Trendline and above the monthly pivot of $3.58 and it rejected the PWH of $3.82 so it seems stuck between support and resistance waiting to see will take charge. I will be looking for long positions on closes above $3.82 and short...

andrewtreilly

Copper has been forming a triangle for weeks now and appears to be getting to a decision point. Copper is flirting with the monthly pivot and stuck perfectly between the PWL and PWH. This one is wait and see as well.

andrewtreilly

If you are a fan of Bollinger Bands and his methodology then you will like this setup. Silver is currently showing near 125 period low in volatility. This extreme lack of volatility is typically what precedes large moves. From a pattern perspective, silver is in no man’s land so it is a wait and see for this metal.

andrewtreilly

The risk on trade is putting further downward pressure on gold. Combine that with the bearish technical setup( multiple divergences, triangle pattern break, Trendline pattern break, bearish evening star candlestick pattern) and the charts suggest this move has room to extend to the downside. Conservative pattern targets suggest the PML(previous monthly low) is in...

andrewtreilly

I can’t take credit for this one. I saw this from John Kurisko for the settings on the Stochastics but he trades it a very different way than I use it. He is short term (1 minute time frame scalper). I view this as an option to apply cycle theory to a chart. Notice how when all variations of the stochastics line up in extreme territory there is usually an...

andrewtreilly

Gold has been a terrible short for awhile now but from a technical perspective this has to be one of the best setups you can get. Multiple divergences from well know momentum indicators, a variation of the evening star candlestick reversal pattern, and fresh off all time highs. From a pattern perspective it is forming an ascending triangle and it also has...

andrewtreilly

How high will nat gas go as it forms the right shoulder? No one truthfully knows but we can all speculate. It may not even form a right shoulder. As I write this, nat gas is hitting resistance of PWH(previous week high). A close above the PWH can set the stage for a R1 challenge on the monthly pivot time frame which is $4.126. Given the weak fundamental demand...

andrewtreilly

A simple question to think about. Do indicators make charts too confusing, have mixed success, and ultimately fall victim to whipsaw with an occasional big winner? Would it be better to use an indicator free daily chart and just observe the buyer and seller psychology that candlesticks offer? Candlestick patterns are powerful. Especially when you observe them...

andrewtreilly

This 3 candle pattern is a good indicator that a bullish reversal is underway. Price was driven lower on day 1. On day 2 price was initially driven lower but buyers stepped in to take control. And they took control at the monthly pivot which adds even more significance to the move. Finally, on day 3 price moved up which means buyers are in control and bears are...

andrewtreilly

This candlestick pattern lacks confirmation but suggest a bottom may be forming for crude oil. This is likely fully driven by the state of the economy and trade. Any positive news around the economy, geo politics, trade, etc. will likely result in confirmation with a bullish candle and prices could go higher.

andrewtreilly

Head and Shoulder pattern are one of the most reliable patterns. And when you think about the psychology behind them it makes sense why. Essentially natural gas pricing in the long run is driven by fundamentals but speculators who trade solely on technical analysis add gasoline to the fire to cause massive price dislocations. The H&S pattern is an example of this....

andrewtreilly

Natural Gas appears to be forming a bottom as it looks to hold a key Fibonacci extension level of 2.98 and a support level of 3.07. A spinning top and dragonfly doji suggest buyers might soon gain control.

andrewtreilly

A rejection off of 3508 level with an evening star or shooting star (depending on how you view candlestick patterns) and a close below other key Fibonacci and sup/res levels will likely cause a downtrend in the foreseeable future. Any closes below key levels should be viewed as bearish price action.

andrewtreilly

This is a great example of why you trade with the trend and stay away from counter trend moves. I’ve kept the chart basic with only a 50 ema that is pegged to the one hour candle as that is a good short term trend indicator. My question is this. Did smart money pile into this trade to drive the price up to the 50 ema to trap all the retail traders only to create...

andrewtreilly

A lot of factors in play with geo politics, weather, economic slow down, and technicals. Any successful test and hold above the 50 period could yield a nice 5-10% move to the upside.

andrewtreilly

A lot of factors in play with geo politics, weather, economic slow down, and technicals. Any successful test and hold above the 50 period could yield a nice 5-10% move to the upside.