arama-nuggetrouble

arama-nuggetrouble

Investors preference between XLP and QQQ is important to pay attention to as it shows the trade-off of "risk off equities" (XLP) versus "Risk on equities" (QQQ). The last time XLP was at these levels relative to Tech was in 1999! The chart above shows XLP/QQQ. As you can see, XLP outperforms heavily during larger degree market corrections. Since December 2021...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

TA: QQQ is at a key support level right now. Bears can break Tech's upward channel; this will see QQQ go down to 274. However, Bulls are at a key 50% retracement area and still resides in a bullish channel. Fundamental: The last time the Fed began raising rates and reducing the balance sheet, equity markets continued moving up after, some initial fear. The fed...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

$MO - Altria - 6.96% $PM - Philip Morris - 4.48% $BTI - British American Tobacco - 7.92% ($MO+$PMI)/SPY - U.S Tobacco Stocks vs. SPY - When investors grow wary of markets they find comfort in Tobacco Stocks. With general markets facing increasing headwinds, investors may prefer this consumer staple. Even though, these companies are tobacco companies; their...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

:Bearish TA vs. Bullish Yields Signal: Bearish TA: Nasty looking Head and Shoulders however, we are at an area where there have been a lot of buyers. Bears right now are looking for down to 30K. Bulls want to hold support here and test the 60K resistance area. Failure to break that will send BTC to 30K. Bullish Yields Signal: BTC has followed US10Y since...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.” - Heraclitas ( c. 535 BC ) The river may continue to look the same, the experience may be similar; but the river has changed and so have they. The chart above shows NDX during the Dotcom bubble and now. As you can see, the pattern looks identical in appearance...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

Oil is a turbulent market because its price is heavily determined by future economic growth, the landscape of the worlds' Oil cartels, airline and car travel, investor sentiment (speculators in future market) and the pace of distribution and refinement. The new Omnicron virus has threatened the recovery in financial markets as, current valuations are based on the...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

A major shift in our macroeconomic landscape has changed in November and this chart represents that. Terminology: M1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler’s checks. ( liquid assets ) M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. some difficult math gives you: M2 - M1 =...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

The fed will no longer support the economy to the extent it has been since Emergency Covid measures were put in place, March of 2020. Their first step will be to decrease the PACE of asset purchases in an effort to eliminate them. Starting this month the fed will purchase $15 billion LESS of assets from the $120 billion it has been purchasing every month. One...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

BTC and TESLA as Risk Assets (Leading Indicator) Bitcoin and Tesla represents the extreme risk tolerance investors have. They are "speculative" and "volatile". Tesla and BTC have become a proxy of risk-off investor sentiment. Tesla and BTC represent the "perfect" future. Investors imagine a world with - a decentralized, digital currency revolutionizing finance...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

Economies everywhere seemingly forsee rate hikes occurring soon and short term yielded treasuries are shooting up at rapid speeds to its pre covid levels. For perspective, longer term bonds like the US10Y have been at its pre covid levels while shorter duration notes and bills are moving up to this level quickly; flattening the curve. The lower duration yields...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

Amazon's sales/revenue is set to decrease this quarter and their Amazon Web Services growth is falling. I would not buy Amazon ahead of earnings. IBM reported that their cloud services department did not grow as much as expected. Amazon should feel these same effects. Inflationary pressures most likely took a toll on the consumer and production/operation costs in...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

A monumental achievement for Tesla: It has finally reached a Market Cap of 1 Trillion dollars!! Tesla is the fifth company ever to reach such a valuation but, it defied the odds to be the only company on that list to still issue speculative grade bonds also known as Junk bonds. The last update came in March 2021, when "Moody's Investors Service upgraded the...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

1. How did they deal with Apple's new privacy policy (users can now opt out of targeted ads). 2. Are consumers spending less on advertised products? Advertisers will pay less for advertisements? E-commerce spending is down after last years surge. 3. Are supply chain issues affecting companies to the point they don't have anything to advertise? 4. Facebook has...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

Long term: The Dollar has been range bound since 2015 in a rectangular formation. The Dollar is at a critical spot right now and is looking for bullish/bearish price action. There is a line of support/resistance at 94.7. DXY is approaching this line as resistance. If it gets above this line this is bearish for equities, btc, gold, commodities. If it goes below...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

Zillow has suspended its iBuying program, Zillow Offers, cited building backlogs and labor/supply shortages as the reason. I believe Zillow's actions supports the idea of a weakening housing market. Weakness in the housing market is attributed to dampening economic conditions. Zillow's iBuying program started in April 2018 and represented the newest frontier...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

Worldwide opposition to vaccine mandates, booster shots every "x" months, negative test required upon arrival for travel. The unvaccinated have antibodies! One of the only stocks that benefits from calamity like this is QUIDEL. In short Quidel does everything related to covid testing including testing for antigens. At the start of the pandemic Quidel rose due to...

arama-nuggetrouble Updated 

Total Crypto Market Cap is now $2.4 trillion!!! Bitcoin commands around $1 trillion of this total. Impressive for a sector that seemingly started at zero. During this journey from zero to a couple trillion, no actual wealth was created. It just changed hands (transferred) to the person willing to pay the highest price. Take for example, Shiba Inu. This week,...

arama-nuggetrouble

Commodity vs. Dollar (Bearish Narrative) The US dollar is 2021 has been blazing its own trail, trending positively even though inflationary pressures should be eating away at its value. It doesn't make much sense for commodities and dollars to go up at the same time. When they move together; they usually move downward together. As the dollar gains value, more...