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since Aug 25, 2020
beyondta
bondyields
chartpattern
fed
fomc
fundamental
tltshort
treasurybonds
trendanalysis
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TLT is approaching a technical double top area as the Feb. 1st FOMC meeting looms. Fed futures are currently pricing in a 475-500 bps terminal rate, however some fed speakers over the days have indicated a desire to exceed 500 bps this year. Market thus far hasn't bought that narrative and expects the Fed will be forced to pivot later this year due to...
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Since at least 1990, whenever the 3month U.S. Government Bond Yield has risen higher than the 10year Bond, the market top on SPX occurs a short time later. Also, in most cases, whenever the 10year yield has hit the magenta trendline, a 3mo/10yr inversion results within 6-12 months. The 10 year yield is currently above the trendline, implying that we could be 6...
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