buyem_nl

buyem_nl

Note: all comments regard yields, not bonds: “new uptrend” = uptrend in yields and thus a bear market in bonds. The recent pullback has left a new higher base above the daily/weekly breakout level around 1.403%. This higher base confirms the primary uptrend and thus strong bullish outlook for yields over the longer term. Our focus remain on the first resistance...

buyem_nl

After a considerable struggle, buyers have maintained their grip on the market. The counter trend phase of the past few months is coming to an end. A new higher base has been set at the important 38.2% retracement and currently prices are rallying above the internal trend line at 62.55. Expect a renewed push towards 66.65 (pivots early 2018) and the new price...

buyem_nl

Although a bit risky due to the questionable longer term outlook, we do think GBP/JPY is worth looking at for an intraday long setup. Due to the elevated risk, we opt for a relatively tight stop. Long @ market (149.55) Target @ 153.25 SL @ 148.25 Expected time frame: 0-4 weeks OANDA:GBPJPY

buyem_nl Updated 

CDE has ended the steady and rather drawnout counter trend phase since mid-2016 with the break above ~9.05. A strong upmove towards minimally 11.75 (1st projection) is extremely likely. Secondary targets come in at 14.30 (3-4 months) while the long-term forecasts suggest levels well above 17.50 (12-months+). Maintain initial stops below 8.25.

buyem_nl Updated 

After a period of consolidation and uncertainty the market has finally chosen direction. The multi tested trend line of 2013/2014 has been taken out triggering a trend reversal higher. Yields should rally towards the first projection at 2.05% without too much trouble. On a 6-9 month horizon the main target comes in at ‘a whopping’ 2.69%.

buyem_nl

Virtually all .gov bond markets are bearish. Recent recoveries are nothing more than regular counter trend moves within clear down trends and we expect the recoveries to peter out quite soon. We are preparing a new short-setup for the Bund with the following parameters: time frame: 420-minute+ short-entry trigger @ 159.70 SL @ 160.75 Target @ 155 (possibly to be...

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The primary uptrend is coming to end; divergence and slacking indicators all point to consolidation at a minimum and probably a trend reversal. Exit-long is the least investors should consider. Depending on developments around the 53.05-area investors can also study potential shorts within the sector or short the sector as a whole. Down side potential is decent:...

buyem_nl

The daily chart below says is all: a large Head&Shoulder reversal pattern is unfolding. Note that the location on the weekly chart is excellent: at the and of a large uptrend and symmetry is pretty decent. Focus on the neck line at 2430. Clearing this level triggers a sell signal targeting ~2100. Interestingly enough, this level is virtually equal to the 162%...

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Sellers are driving prices lower with conviction. Various support levels have given way leaving no significant level until roughly 9522 and 9274. These levels are formed by major upward retracements and down side projections. We suggest keeping focus on those to unload some shorts at these levels. Use trailing stops at 10525 and see how price action develops over...

buyem_nl

The current declines are a regular counter trend dip, triggered after hitting the weekly resistance area around 3.85. This decline could continue for a couple of days after which base building should occur around the key support at 3.649. here the weekly cloud support and daily retracements and regressions fall together. Note that base building can easily take up...

buyem_nl Updated 

Sellers are gunning for a break below ~7010. Such a move triggers a new down trend on the 120-minute chart, targeting 6820 and 6812. More importantly, such a decline would bring prices well below the former "bullish" breakout level, thus constituting a false move/flush-high/false breakout or whatever you would like to label it. Such 'flushes' (my preferred name)...

buyem_nl

The negative outlook of early January has faded. The then expected breakout did not materialized. Moreover, buyers have returned and are even trying to trigger a new recovery phase of some sorts. For this they must convincingly clear the barrier around 3.3475 thus paving the way towards 3.4750 and perhaps a bit higher. Although not spectacular, it is one of...

buyem_nl Updated 

The minor recovery since early March is fading away against the 38.2% retracement at 132.40. Expect a resumption of the primary down trend over the next hours and days. Trigger for such a move is found at 131.40. Clearing this level generates a renewed sell signal targeting 129.95 (minor) and the main price projection at 129.05. Maintain initial stops above...

buyem_nl

The near term outlook is all over the place without a clear bias to either side. The longer term outlook does show a different picture. The lengthy uptrend from early 2015 has turned into a consolidation phase with growing divergence and waning indicators. Although not expressly negative (yet), the undertone is weakening quite a bit.  Investors should keep an eye...

buyem_nl Updated 

A minor recovery could get under way after hitting the substantial support at ~1.5625. However, dynamics have become quite unfriendly over the past days, so the setting of a new lower peak in the 1.5750-area is expected. Such a new lower peak should trigger a serious test of the mentioned support zone, and indeed, significantly increase the chance of a break...

buyem_nl

The near-term outlook (420-minute intraday) remains bearish: the recent swings have been fierce but remain below the 50% retracement at ~540. Clearing minor triggers at 532 should ring in a renewed sell-off towards 528.40 and roughly 520. With stops above 540 this is a very favourable short-setup. For the longer term things have become a bit tricky. Albeit...

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A small cap stock that is not on our regular watch list, but quite interesting nevertheless. The energy sector is looking increasingly bullish for the near term with coal and gas being particularly interesting. CLD has found considerable support around the weekly 76.4% retracement (@2.87) while the daily chart has recently set a new higher base. We expect a rally...

buyem_nl

Bonds are holding at the minor projection at 121.72. Due to the underlying bearish momentum we expect a continuation towards the much more important targets at respectively 116.82 and 108.90. Note that this latter level is virtually equal to multiple pivots of 2013-2014. We maintain our strong negative stance versus bonds. Only a recovery above 125<>125.20 can...