cerealpatterns

cerealpatterns

seems as if over 176 is in order after the size of the bounce and retracement. weve hit bottom of envelope, and were now over estimate. depends where resistance lies that we determine how high it rallies.

cerealpatterns

this is a top gainer today that could still go either way. if we stay above retracement we could reach for daily highs and beyond. maybe high 26s. much more likely is diving back below envelope and retesting signal, estimate, bottom of envelope around the .5 retrace.

cerealpatterns Updated 

technicals have proven heavy selling is leading to countertrend movement. were getting lots of rate of change bullish signals daily indicating a trip toward supertrend, but longs really want to position themselves with momo in the index. daily highs breaking and holding .5 of the bounce would be good signs.

cerealpatterns Updated 

bitcoin is making the bear rounds, and is in a snapback phase counter to the bear trend. basically right when this strat says sell is where you want to buy. that point should occur soon.

cerealpatterns Updated 

spx could have bull or bear technical numbers on my chart depending on the path these indicators take. if they go up with the price thats bullish, and if they move lower with the price thats bearish. im bearish on touches of the upper levels marked out as the index rises or breaks of lower levels while it sinks, and im bullish on support from lower levels or...

cerealpatterns

it seems like the last time we gotthiscandle stick pattern we bounced. if we see that again it could be bullish.

cerealpatterns

the fundamental aspects of why weve bounced are still very much up in the air. this is causing uncertainty, and thats leading to profit taking. from a technical standpoint the rebound is strong, but if we zoom in we find momentum has not completed a reversal. id imagine this means we are in for a revisit of signal, estimate, sss ma and finally bottom of envelope....

cerealpatterns

its internet, its consumer spending, its technology and its big business. nothing has the positioning that amazon does, and its not going to change in the foreseeable future. the trade war crushed the price, but when we reached a balance with imports amzn shot right back. in 2019 more trade war news crashed it, and when we made a deal with china it rose again....

cerealpatterns Updated 

the semiconductor industry stocks are so far outside of what is fair value to the downside that by december 2023 its just a guarantee that we will be back up to the tope of monthly envelope.

cerealpatterns

well probably head back toward bottom of envelopel. slow bleed until we have a reason to bet on another wave. if signal stays green we could have another leg up.

cerealpatterns

one mans hopium is anothers forever market. the time to start averaging into large caps may have passed. this big tech stock might lead the market higher as has happened every time pointed out here around this recent year low. the price is around sss demand which is still green, and were getting near that year low anchored vwap and the bottom of envelope. finding...

cerealpatterns

russel is making its high, and the question is will it print this and reverse following the rest of the market lower, or is this resistance breaking on a second touch to melt the market up with more squeeze. right now the hourly is most important. as long as were below nadaraya watson estimate it feels like price belongs toward bottom of envelope and lower...

cerealpatterns

top of envelope is typically a pullback level when estimate is changing directions. sss ma is resistive and supply zone is sinking. i wouldnt be surprised to see a pattern similar to the ghost feed.

cerealpatterns

during capitulation selling in spx vix has much steeper move up, but right now it is making gradual gains alongside a market that is selling big names like tsla at an astonishing rate. if we finally decide to bottom expect uvxy to head back down toward signal, sss ma, vwap and bottom of envelope. if we break to new lows uvxy should head right ip outside the top of...

cerealpatterns

the signal moving average daily is telling us any touches are sell until we break into green teritory. if weekly bearflag completes im looking at below 17k by december futures.

cerealpatterns

i imagine this down move in semiconductors is going to push mich lower, and soxs is a long at these levels into the upper 70s. the signal moving average is green on this inverse.

cerealpatterns

this is a big chunk of the market all byitself. if we look to it for broader implication we find most equity is still a sell. im not looking to long stocks right now until $TICK is far below the price again.

cerealpatterns

the fed isnt interested in saving the market. it only cares that it delays the maximum selling until late in the year. they want choppy action because this allows them to scare retail out and institutions can scale horizontally. were likely to hit signal, sss ma, trama and rebound. uvxy is a sell if we get to top of envelope or we break pivot and continue lower....