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GOLD - FOMC day
XAUUSD
, 240
XAUUSD: GOLD - FOMC day
Updated 

Just a short update before the FED decision. Today we bounced from the green trendline and we broke the descending trendline (blue). It seems we have the perfect setup for a rally. The last few hours of bounce seems an artificial move to me. It's too simple to end this daily cycle at the trendline. On the daily chart I was waiting for to tag the 50 EMA and that...

LABU - 200 EMA is support now
XBI
, D
Long
XBI: LABU - 200 EMA is support now
Updated 

Last week we haven't just broken the 200 EMA in XBI but we were able to hold the gains. This is really going to fasten up now. The 200 EMA is a support now and at the time S&P is printing some kind of pullback in the future - maybe after FED's rate hike next Wednesday - XBI will just test back the 200 EMA. In the next 2 weeks I will be adding to my stock trade...

EURUSD - FOMC plan
EURUSD
, D
Long
EURUSD: EURUSD - FOMC plan

Entering into the panic selling stage next week Friday we broke down the key level at 1.1000. It was the last sign for me that we are entering into the panic selling stage next week. EurUsd is finishing its intermediate cycle next week. The panic selling will be triggered as soon as we break 1.0910. ( This is the Brexit low - lot of cycle trader thought this is...

OIL - Bounce is off the table
USOIL
, D
USOIL: OIL - Bounce is off the table
Updated 

During the last 2 weeks oil was consolidating. As today we broke 44.40$ the bounce above 50$ is off the table for 2 weeks. First we need to print the daily cycle low in 2 weeks. When oil bottoms and start to rally again oil related stocks will rally. It will also give a big push to the general stock market as well. We just have to wait for oil to bottom. I will...

GOLD - The last flag
XAUUSD
, 240
XAUUSD: GOLD - The last flag
Updated 

After yesterday's big bounce most of the bulls are ready to go long in the hope of the big gains. I'm not in a hurry with buying yet. Before Brexit at the cycle low we tagged the 300 EMA. So this time we must not only tag but break the 300 EMA at least. As I'm watching the charts we have the last flag forming in this decline. When we break it down we will have...

GOLD - Massacre after the false swing
XAUUSD
, D
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Massacre after the false swing

It was a nice day on the short side at GoldStreet. The menu was toasted bull. We are getting close where I take profit on my shorts ( from 1315 to 1300$) But not opening long yet - I will explain later why In the night we had a false swing in the Asian session ( price run above the previous 3 day's high). A lot of Asian bulls were buying the breakout. They had...

US DOLLAR INDEX - RATE HIKE
DXY
, D
DXY: US DOLLAR INDEX - RATE HIKE
Updated 

The US Dollar started to price in the 27th July rate hike. We are heading to the top of the range. Next week we are going to break 96.70 and the next resistance zone is 98.50. Here comes the big question: will we be able to break 98.50? Maybe yes, maybe not. In the last few weeks the dollar was quite weak. After coming back from the bear trap below the range...

GOLD - Turkish golden coup
XAUUSD
, 240
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Turkish golden coup
Updated 

The only reason gold didn't close on a daily/weekly minimum was the coup in Turkey. In the last hour of trading gold bounced and the hourly chart has tagged the 100 EMA. The attempted coup collapsed on Saturday. So the only reason gold had bounced is vanished. I'm looking forward to see a down gap open in gold on Monday. Usually these gaps are closed in the next...

S&P - Last chance for bears
SPX500
, D
SPX500: S&P - Last chance for bears
Updated 

This is getting deadly serious... S&P tried to break the 2110 level in the last 1.5 year 12 times. And the 13th time it broke out. I've warned you don't try to short the stock markets because it's not going to end well for the shorts. All of you who is short in the stock market will get one more chance during the next 2 weeks to close the position and go to the...

Silver - Late faller (Short term trade idea)
XAGUSD
, 240
Short
XAGUSD: Silver - Late faller (Short term trade idea)
Updated 

Silver is not falling with gold right now. I think gold will have at least one more day to drop. It could be low risk trade to sell silver now with a stop above 20.7. We might get a 1 $ drop in the night or tomorrow. Target price is at the bottom of the bull flag : 19$ I'm trading this one on my account.

GOLD - Falling
XAUUSD
, 240
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Falling
Updated 

It seems we have started a clear move down into the DCL. It should last for 4-5 days. We have the blue double top which broke down its neckline (blue) and was tested back by a bear flag yesterday. And the bear flag broke down in the night. We are heading down to 1300$. Perma bulls are quiet now - I know they are reading me - so it's a good sign that they are...

S&P - BREAKOUT
SPX500
, D
Long
SPX500: S&P - BREAKOUT
Updated 

We broke all this year's high on Friday at the NFP data. Just one resistance zone in front of us: 2015 May high. 10 points from Friday close. My suggestion is DO NOT TRY TO SHORT FROM HERE. Even if it worked at the last 7 times most probably this time it will not. If we break the 2015 May high there will be a terrible short squeeze I wouldn't be surprised if...

GOLD - Shakeout
XAUUSD
, D
XAUUSD: GOLD - Shakeout
Updated 

So finally we got our decline. I was reading on a few webpage this weekend where the authors were talking about 1450$ gold by the end of this week. It seems will not happen though. Before anyone would go all in with shorts I would like to warn them... WE ARE IN A NEW BULL MARKET. On the 30.05. We printed the low of a 6 month rally. On the 1st of June we entered...

OIL - Not for trading
USOIL
, D
USOIL: OIL - Not for trading
Updated 

I will explain in this post why I'm not trading oil in the following 1 month. The explanation is simple: 1. I don't want to enter a long trade because we are too late in this rally since the mid of Feb. Sooner or later we are having an intermediate correction and I simply cannot predict this late we are going up first to 55$ - in a shorter daily cycle- or going...

GDXJ - Selling into the breakout
GDXJ
, D
Short
GDXJ: GDXJ - Selling into the breakout
Updated 

Gold price was pulled up on low volume Friday after the NFP data. A strong NFP data should have caused a steep decline in gold but I think nobody was prepeared for that at Smartmoney. So what can the banks do in this case? Bullion banks are starting to pull up gold price in the low volume Friday afternoon session. In the gold bull market - and miners bull market ...

GOLD - Sell the news 2 (Weekly)
XAUUSD
, W
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Sell the news 2 (Weekly)
Updated 

After the good job data on Friday gold was still able to recover. It shows us how bullish everybody on gold... Traders are buying every dip. We rallied 6 weeks continuously. It's time for a decline to the daily cycle low. What could trigger a daily cycle low in this bullish sentiment? FOMC on 27th of July. After this strong job data nothing stands in the...

GOLD - Sell the news
XAUUSD
, D
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Sell the news
Updated 

I think the good job data had finally triggered the daily cycle top in gold. We should move down into the DCL now. The hourly topping pattern looks perfect to me : double top, testback of the trendline, one more pullback to 1370$ to stop out the early shorts - while smartmoney is selling the miner shares. This decline should last for only a few days as on the...

GOLD - Double top or Bear flag?
XAUUSD
, 60
XAUUSD: GOLD - Double top or Bear flag?
Updated 

We are in an interesting situation. Gold almost never tops at its daily cycle as we are topping today. Gold almost always throws a curveball to the early shorts. We couldn't tag 1390-1400$ - the target price counted from the pennant pattern - that is also pulling the price as a magnet... Though we printed a daily swing today usually the first swing is a false...

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