chartwatchers

chartwatchers Updated 

First of all I would like to use the 2009.03. goldchart again because I still think the situation is quite similar. Bear market ended 2008.11. with a double bottom. 4 months of rally and an intermediate correction with 2 daily cycles. I highlighted by an arrow where I think we are. 18.03. was a big up day. It was a FED day. The dollar had a big decline - just...

chartwatchers Updated 

Overview By this Fiday I was waiting for most of gold's bounce to be done, but it didn't happen. We are still fighting here at the 1210 level.... I still have a feeling that this time the bears should be toasted who shorted the market after Yellen's speech. Gold's last 3 weeks decline has taken out all important levels except the 2016-02-16 DCL at 1191. We broke...

chartwatchers Updated 

I'M posting the oil chart again. Lot of you had asked to post some update. Not too many things happened the last few days. The rally seems to be slowing now. Though we are printing a higher high again I stll see the divergences in the indicators. I don't see any reason now to jump on board at the long side again. I would like to buy oil again when it's moving down...

chartwatchers Updated 

Today is an important day so I will post a daily summary where we are. 1. We broke the daily descending channel's trendline (blue) and we are holding the breakout by today's close. 2. We have the swing - as we broke above yesterday's high- and the swing was not erased. 3. The target price counted from the triangle (purple line) was reached exactly. That's...

chartwatchers Updated 

Yesterday we closed on the 50 EMA and today we opened with a gap. Gap wasn't filled. 10 and 20 EMA is crossing over, MACD just crossed over and heading to positiv territory. RSI is overbought, but could be overbought for weeks - we had it at the decline. Tomorrow we might have a testback of the 50 EMA . But I think we are going to break the April highs and test...

chartwatchers Updated 

After 2 weeks of pullback CLF is bouncing from the 100 EMA and the trendline. If oil continues the rally it's a good buy today.

chartwatchers Updated 

Today we have the swing in place. Also the descending channel's trendline is broken. If this holds we could have a few day of bounce in gold. We broke below 03.28.2016 DCL but there was no follow through. Also volume is siging that we ran out of sellers. I would like to see a big volume with green candle today. That could support the pop idea. Also the RSI is...

chartwatchers Updated 

I've found an interesting correlation between gold and EurUsd. Gold seems to be determined by the USD in the previous days. I'm watching especially the correlation between the most important currency pair (EurUsd) and gold. I think when EurUsd breaks out of the falling wedge next week , gold will also print a bounce up to the 50 EMA (4hrs chart) and maybe to the...

chartwatchers Updated 

I'm still waiting for Eurusd-0.74% to print a DCL and a 4-5 days bounce in the following days. The purple trendline should hold as we are late in this daily cycle. So one more tag of the lower trendline of the wedge (and the purple trendline) and breakout should come with a 4-5 days bounce . Notice the divergencies...

chartwatchers Updated 

The picture shows the intermediate decline in 2008-2009 after gold came out of the bear market and printed the first phase of its bull market. Little bit different. Not have to be exactly the same. Bear market ended in Nov.2008. Bull market started, initial rally Nov.2008-20.Feb.2009. After that came an intermediate decline . -The intermediate decline lasted for...

chartwatchers

The Commitment of Traders report (COT) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart . The last Blees rating numbers (24) are showing that...

chartwatchers Updated 

It seems to me that the daily cycle topped in the dollar. It's printing a bear flag and will break down soon. I'm waiting for a 6-7 days weak decline here. Indicators 10 & 20 EMA is crossing over. MACD- RSI divergencies Hard to tell where the DCL could be formed though.

chartwatchers Updated 

I think yesterday we printed the DCL in EurUsd also. At the previous DCLs (red arrows) RSI always left oversold territory and TSI - sometimes MACD also- crossed over to the upside a little bit later. The same thing happened yesterday. I'm not waiting for this trendline to break down in the following 7-8 days I'm sure we will have a bounce from here. And after that...

chartwatchers Updated 

Today price finally has broken the trendline with a nice rally. MACD is crossing over, RSI is heading to overbought territory, SlowStoch has a long time to go: we can rally for weeks from here. We are going to test the May 2015 highs soon. The only thing makes me a bit nervous: today's volume. It's a low volume. Based on this we might have a testback of the...

chartwatchers Updated 

Here is my warplan on the 4 hrs chart for the next few days. First of all Monday is holiday in the USA so I dont expect too big volume or big things to happen tomorrow on the market. If some extra stuff is happening it will happen today. This is just the perfect date for gold to bounce on low volume for 4-5 days. If the US dollar is starting to weaken for a few...

chartwatchers Updated 

Ths US Dollar Index ( DXY ) is printing a bull flag before the next resistance zone. Soon we will be testing again the 95-95.2 level. Maybe a breakthrough at FED minutes?

chartwatchers Updated 

EurUsd decline is stopped at the trendline. Price is trying to print a pullback but it's just a trendline crawling... Sooner or later it will break down. Maybe tomorrow at the FED minutes?

chartwatchers Updated 

I must notice the divergence between price and MACD - RSI . On the daily chart we almost tagged the 100 EMA. My original idea was the bounce from the 100 DEMA at the DCL. So I will give a chance to the bounce out from the DCL. In this case I suppose that the DCL was today and we will have a bounce up to 1240-50$. WE are simply too late in this daily cycle, and I...