chartwatchers

chartwatchers

If gold can stay here till the USA market open we have a good chance that we open with a gap and DUST could rally again today. Yesterday we broke out of the bottom with good volume , I would like to see some nice follow through today. I'm still missing that big day when we print a more than 20% rally in DUST with a panic and strong selloff in the miners. Maybe...

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Day 42 in my cycle count. Very long cycle. After yesterday's monster decline we've arrived to the 2nd level - the end of 2nd wave- where the blue trendline, the April daily lows and the 100 EMA (daily EMA) is. We broke through the blue trendline, and attacking now the daily candle's lows of April at 1224$. I suggest patience here. All who covered some of the...

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I was in NatGas for a few weeks. It seems topped a few days ago. Now it's heading into an intermediate decline as it broke the trendline. MACD turning down and TSI turning down (had crossed down also). For those who trapped here I think I would exit as the price is getting pulled back to 2.07-2.08. It's very volatile so I think there will be some kind of...

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I 've found one more pattern which supports the short side : the green triangle. Triangles and pennants are continuation patterns in 90% of the cases. This one is in the 10% exception as it broke down and no to the upside. I dont find anything just retail trader sentiment that supports the long idea... The target counted from the triangle (purple line) is...

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This Friday we had day 39 in the 4th daily cycle. It's quite a long daily cycle . We've reached the 1st level at the end of the 1st wave at the 50 EMA and the blue trendline. Next week we have to print a DCL with RSI oversold at or near to the 100 EMA. Bulls will have to face with the next big surprise: the blue area is not a bull flag. It's going to break down...

chartwatchers

I haven't posted the COT numbers for a long time now... It's time to take a look at that now. The Commitment of Traders report (COT) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the...

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Yesterday's decline was erased completely. We printed a higher high again. We are arriving to the point where my knowledge will not be enough to predict what is going to happen exactly. The big question is : 1. will we have one more daily cycle - that would mean we go down into a DCL first around 42-43$ and then a final surge to 55-60$ ? 2. or we have only 2...

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After 2 weeks of whipsaws and smartmoney tricks gold finally turned down from the upper trendline and broke down the 10.05. low yesterday. I set all the important levels for the next 3-5 weeks decline on the picture. Don't forget: most of the market is still long. Dip buyers will come again and again till the 4th level. Smartmoney will be positioned for the next...

chartwatchers

First of all I would like to thank for all the support you give me. At the second place I'd like to congratulate for all the traders who were able to stay in position in this topping process. Those who were selling short today or in the last 2 weeks were selling short position with the big banks and funds. Smartmoney exactly knew what would be the FED minutes...

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We have arrived to an important zone: 2015 November high. As I predicted a few weeks before I think - if we are going to have 3 daily cycles - the 2nd daily cycle will top between 48 and 51$. So we have to get ready that the 2nd daily cycle topping this week. I'm going to take profit on my oil positions around 49-50$ - depending how strong is the next 2-3 days of...

chartwatchers Updated 

Friday gap down open. Today gap up open. This is an island having a huge resistance. I like this setup. Holding long positions.

chartwatchers Updated 

The dollar on the truck now. I think we are just waiting for the stocks to bottom and gold will break down. I was waiting for the FED minutes today but I think as yesterday FED's Lockhart and Willimas both said June is possibe for a rate hike the minutes will show the same. Yesterday was not a false breakdown it just tagged again the blue trandline. But there is...

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We are printing a big reversal today. Not just a bullish pin bar , but a key reversal candlestick also. So I'M quite sure that we printed the DCL last week. We are running to new highs. This a low risk entry: SL : 2034 TP : above the 2015 May high (2160-2170) I would open only a partial position as tomorrow we might come back to 2055. I would add the other...

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Now we have left every important EMAs the next targets are the highs of the last years decline: 2015.11.03. high: 48.25$ 2015.10.09. high: 50.85$ (Zoom out to see the red circles) Everything is getting super bullish now in oil. These are the moments when all the traders realizes that the lows are in. The panic buying is starting. At these point I wouldn't buy...

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Oil was rallying yesterday and today. Stocks were in pullback mode. As oil holding its highs and stocks their daily cycle lows I think there is a decent chance that ERX printed the daily cycle low 3 days ago. It broke out of the descending channel tested back and heading to new highs. I'm writing this before market close so all who not positioned in oil or oil...

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Without the European markets I think the big players used up this low voulme Monday for a breakout of the channel... We have just broke the upper trendline. But now it seems to me as volume is coming back with the US markets they will push back the price into the channel and fleecing the longs who bought the breakout.... Indicators are looking good: RSI leaving...

chartwatchers Updated 

I think everything is on truck here with our long positions. The question is : Are we breaking out from the flag immediately on Monday (1) or do we have to tag the bottom of the range - and the 200 EMA- one more time (2). So 43$ is still not out of the table before we break out to 50$. I think the stock market will show the direction now at the beginning of next week...

chartwatchers Updated 

Hopefully the banks got out of the way of gold's decline - at least for a few hours - and we can tag finally the lower line of the channel around 1248$. I knew it's not going to be easy against the dip buyers but I was not counting with the manipulators who were holding gold's price against the dollar strength. We should break the blue line soon... Let's see if...