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US Dollar Index - Rally on bad news
DXY
, 240
Long
DXY: US Dollar Index - Rally on bad news
Updated 

The NFP number came out weaker, but there was no effect on the dollar. It just continued the rally. The dollar bottomed in its intermediate cycle so will continue its rally. We are at the breakdown level now where the panic selling started. One or two days and we blast through it. I think this was the last hope of the trapped dollar bears below the range. As soon...

EurUsd - foredoomed to fall
EURUSD
, D
Short
EURUSD: EurUsd - foredoomed to fall
Updated 

I give only one or two days for EurUsd before it tags the 50 EMA (1.1291) and the trendline highlighted in orange. I think EurUsd will bottom around the Brexit (23th June). I'm looking forward to see real panic in the Euro during this 6 weeks. We might stop for a little at the 50 EMA but price will break soon the orange trendline.

Gold - Internal weakness and conspiration theory
XAUUSD
, D
Short
XAUUSD: Gold - Internal weakness and conspiration theory
Updated 

“…the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions.” - Jesse Livermore I've found an interesting thing in gold which proves why the bulls will not be right this time... Gold is moving opposite the US Dollar Index. I highlighted...

OIL - Over the top
USOIL
, D
Long
USOIL: OIL - Over the top

Higher high again. This is how bull market works. You get on board , sit tight and let the position work. Though yesterday I closed some oil June contracts , I bought ERX at the same margin impact because I think ERX will make more profits as the stock market is rallying by itself so oil stocks will rally even more. The stock market rally and the oil rally wil...

GOLD - Testing back the breakdown level
XAUUSD
, 60
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Testing back the breakdown level
Updated 

Gold seems to be testing back the breakdown level (and the 100 EMA) on the hourly chart. After Monday's monster move down we needed some kind of consolidation. This level should hold now as the dollar continues its rally. We have to get prepared for the dip buyers. The big funds will be positioning on this way down for a long term hold (3-4 years) in gold. They...

OIL - Just a few thoughts
USOIL
, 240
USOIL: OIL - Just a few thoughts
Updated 

While I'm still 100% sure that we wil be visiting 50$ in the following 2-3 weeks, I would like to warn those few people who are overleveraged. Yesterday we broke below the 10 EMA(daily) and the 20 EMA (daily) was holding the price. We also reversed from the green support zone which is becoming stronger and stronger. Today the stock markets seem to be starting the...

Southcross Energy Partners - Bouncing from 50 EMA
SXE
, D
Long
SXE: Southcross Energy Partners - Bouncing from 50 EMA

It's also a good setup. It's bouncing from the 50 EMA and might print a nice run above 4$ in the following 3-4 weeks.

GOLD - Levels to watch
XAUUSD
, D
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Levels to watch
Updated 

Today's candlestick predicting that this is going to be a filthy decline. I will use the EMAs to sign the breakdowns levels and the testbacks. Today we closed on the 20 EMA. I think we are going to break it down soon (maybe tonight). The next level to watch is the 50 EMA at 1239.7. A lot of people is watching the blue trendline below the 50EMA and I'm pretty sure...

GOLD: THE BULLTRAP
XAUUSD
, D
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD: THE BULLTRAP
Updated 

I make the call : gold has topped in the 1st stage of its new bull market. The topping was so typical again. Break the price to new highs (above 1284). Get everyone bullish. Convince the shorts that price is running to the sky: so they will stop out. When early bulls, late bulls, short traders are all on board and the daily chart is breaking to new highs banks are...

Gold - Hourly reversal
XAUUSD
, 60
Short
XAUUSD: Gold - Hourly reversal

Gold was not able to rally on the bad NFP data on Friday. All the gains are erased by now. Just as I predicted: they cleaned out the shorts with the Friday pop and price falled again. As we break below 1274$ bulls have to face a seriuos problem as they are on the wrong side of this market.

Gold weekly - Divergences
XAUUSD
, W
Short
XAUUSD: Gold weekly - Divergences
Updated 

This week is going to be an interesting week. The week before last gold printed a bullish Marubozu candlestick with a breakout. But last week there was no follow through. We had a red doji candlestick. And the beginning of this week we are coming down again. We have divergence between price and the RSI. WHile we had a higher high in price RSI was not able to move...

S&P 500 - A start of a new daily cycle?
SPX500
, D
Long
SPX500: S&P 500 - A start of a new daily cycle?
Updated 

Friday we printed a reversal candlestick on the daily chart. (Hammer candlestick with buillish body) We turned up from the 50 EMA and closed at the daily maximum with high volume. The RSI left overbought territory. Notice what did it mean in the past. It was always a start of a new rally. It's bullish. At least we are going to test the May 2015 highs. And this...

EURUSD - The decline continues
EURUSD
, D
Short
EURUSD: EURUSD - The decline continues

Everything seems to be perfect here. Even the trendline is working beautifully. Bad news for the dollar but price couldn't break the trendline. That's how cycles are working. Once a top is printed hten the direction can't be changed. MACD crossing down again. I'm looking for the trendline break soon.

ERX - Breakout and a trendline backtest
ERX
, 240
Long
ERX: ERX - Breakout and a trendline backtest

I'm in this vehicle for a ong time. It seems to me that the pullback is done. We broke out of the channel and have the testback. If oil rallies on Monday price will soar after the gap open. Slow Stochastic had just crossed up, RSI left overbought. It's a long . If the main indexes (S&P , Nasdaq, Dow) printed their bottom on Friday it will support the rally in ERX also.

OIL - Weekend analysis
USOIL
, D
Long
USOIL: OIL - Weekend analysis
Updated 

This week Monday the correction started in oil from the 300 EMA. It's not such an important level but the previous rally couldn't break it through. Candles, patterns, volume & EMA We had 2 big red candle day : one of them below the average volume and next day above the average. The 2nd day price closed below the 10 EMA. When price is closing below the 10 EMA...

GOLD - NonFarm Payroll MENU
XAUUSD
, D
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - NonFarm Payroll MENU
Updated 

Today on the daily chart we had a nothing day. As the doji shows direction is not decided yet... As I said on the hourly chart post gold's intermediate decline is starting uneasily... Bulls are still hoping buying every dip , posting into my posts, trying to convince me that I'm in the wrong direction. Shorts are nervous. Taking profit after every 5$ decline......

Gold - Thursday on the hourly chart
XAUUSD
, 60
XAUUSD: Gold - Thursday on the hourly chart
Updated 

Today I was waiting for a stronger decline, but gold's intermediate declines are starting slowly. Once she finds the right direction she is unstoppable. Why did I halfed down the XAUUSD position? I'm still sure that gold topped 4 days ago. I still think that we are heading down to the 50 EMA and later to the 200 EMA. Nothing has changed.But I think gold will try...

OIL - No Market For SHORT MAN
USOIL
, D
Long
USOIL: OIL - No Market For SHORT MAN
Updated 

Back to the old plan.... Most of the traders start to realize that this is not the market you can short. We took out yesterday's high and now taking out the day before yesterday's high. Though the day before yesterday we closed below the 10 EMA yesterday there was no follow through with a very high volume : we closed exactly on the 10 EMA. That's why I posted...

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