chartwatchers

chartwatchers

S&P having a very interesting cycle.It had a strong rally in the previous weeks and close to the highs. Everybody is waiting for a correction now. The maximum level of the correction is the 200 EMA . No more... The RSI is already at oversold levels just like the prevoius reversals. So we might tag the 200 EMA and maybe not. But we will run to new highs soon in...

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We printed a bullish pin bar candlestick today which is a very bullish sign that price is reversing. I noticed that only a few people are watching the the US Dollar Index. If you want to be successfull you have to watch this index every day. It's more important than the EurUsd.... What happened exactly in the US Dollar Index today? What was the fundamental...

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EurUsd has printed a shooting star candlestick yesterday. We are so late in this intermediate cycle that this must be the sign of the reversal. Today we have the swing so all the swing traders and candlestick reversal traders are already on board for the short trade. MACD and RSI are showing divergencies. Though we couldn't tag the upper trendline and the...

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We are on day 27 today. We bounced from the 10 EMA yesterday. This is normal. But don't wait for a big rally to 1300+ ... We have maximum 7 days from now for a move down into the daily cycle low. Today the dip buyers were buying gold as a backtest of the breakout. As soon as bulls will realize that it's not a backtest but we are heading down to the 50 EMA and to...

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If oil had bottomed then shippers will start to rally also. This is one of them I'm watching for a while. It is now tagging the 10 EMA. It was 120 $ when oil was shining. If the oil bear ended it could rally 1000-2000%. Not an all in trade but it can run up to 6$ or 9$ easily. We are runnig out of sellers. As oil finishes this small decline it will start to run again.

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Oil closed on the 10 EMA with strong volume today. This fight is not decided yet. It is looking better for me than yesterday. We are on day 21 in the 2nd daily cycle.It's simply too early to start the move into the daily cycle low. So this week and the next is still there for oil to rally. In this decline we have maximum tomorrow and Friday to tag the 20 EMA.

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After a key reversal (Bearish pin bar) and a double top yesterday gold finally broke down the 1290$ level. We tested back this level and turned down from the neckline of the double top pattern. The 10 EMA was catching up the price and supporting the downtrend. The market is a little bit nervous so we will test back again and again the 20 EMA ( like 2 hours...

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I'm not happy that some of you closed the DUST positions yesterday. Today we will open with a GAP which will not be filled and we will break the blue trendline. I'm 99.9% sure that we are going to run at least to 4$. And 95% sure that we we will tag the FIBO 23.6% level at 5.95. (447%)

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So the bad news are that we broke down the uptrending channel yesterday because of the rallying dollar. The breakdown volume was also good... And we also break down the smaller descending channel which was a false breakdown because - and here comes the good news- we are still back into this channel. If we can close back above the 10 EMA today than the whole...

chartwatchers

I'm not very happy because Oil lost the 10 EMA today. Most probably the reason is the strengthening dollar. I was waiting for a red candle but not a close below the 10 EMA. It's still too early for a daily cycle low (that would mean a 8$ fall from the top - in this case we would have a decline from 46$ to 38$) so it will be a 4-5 $ pullback to the 20 EMA...

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The Saudis tricked me out in Doha. I wasn't able to realize that we are in the purple channel. The 200 EMA is supporting very nicely our trend. After Doha we had the false breakout - the Saudi's beartrap- but the trend's direction was not really changed... So now I think something really serious has to happen to break down here... Otherwise we should pop to 45$...

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DUST opened with a gap (hard to see on the picture if you ZOOM it's there) and suffered a -18.77% decline. It was a capitulation. I think the thing what is happening in the miners is very important for gold. Miners will have an intermediate decline in the following weeks. And the reverse fund DUST will rally like crazy. The intermediate lows in DUST are always...

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This is an interesting chart... CAD is rallying since January. Even it was able to rally (USDCAD pair was falling) when the dollar had some pullbacks from the middle of February till the end of February.(green) But now I see internal weakness. Price couldn't tag the lower trendline for weeks now. Though the dollar was falling in April USDCAD was not able to fall...

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Hard time for shorts again. Every dip is bought. We haven't tagged the 50 EMA for days. I want to prepare you that on this 4 hrs chart we will test back the 100 EMA and maybe break marginally below it. So most probably on Monday or Tuesday we will stop a little bit and come back to the 100 EMA before we enter the 48-52 area to print the daily cycle high.

chartwatchers

I got a few messages what do I think the dollar is turning. I'm trying my best to find that out: It's not going to go lower than the red box. So the reversal should occur the latest between 91.20 - 91.70

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Though I still think that the dollar rally is very close I would wait now with entering the short position. It seems price wants to break above the August high. It will be a marginal breakout but price will not rally after this breakout and there will be no follow through above 1.17. We are just too late in this intermediate cycle. Next week lit of news: Draghi...

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Traders who are going long in gold in these days are running after the price. We are very late in this gold intermediate cycle : it started on 12.04.2015. We are in the 4th daily cycle. Usually an IC has 3 daily cycles in gold. 1st DC: 28 days, 2nd DC : 23 days, 3rd DC: 28 days, 4th DC: 24 days ( and not finished yet) A daily cycle has 25-40 days. It seems we...

chartwatchers

The greenback (DXY - US DOllar Index) entered into a panic selling stage when broke down the 93.9 level. That usually lasts for around 5 days so it can turn anyday now. Maybe today , maybe tomorrow... Price also broke below the August low. Technical traders will enter into this market with shorts but cyclewise we are very late. The decline will not be...