chartwatchers

chartwatchers

I'm waiting for the flag to break down. Price is heading to 1190.

chartwatchers

I updated the OIL chart. The decline we are having now still doesn't seem too frightening to me. And we are still above the 20EMA. The question : will price tag the 50 EMA (blue) during this daily cycle decline in the following 4-5 days or not. I'm 100% sure that we will have one more daily cycle when we break above the 200EMA to 50$. I'm watching the 6 day RSI...

chartwatchers

NatGas had finished its pullback and run to new highs today. We've taken out the 14th February breakdown level. I'm looking forward to run to the next level at 2.171 soon. 10 EMA and 20EMA crosoover is active. MACD and TSI are far from crossing over : plenty of time tor run. Holding NatGAs and UGAZ longs.

chartwatchers

S&P 500 is turning up from the 10 EMA. It seems wants to run to new highs...

chartwatchers

Despite the inventory data oil couldn't even tag the 20 EMA last week. Moreover it was closing above the 10 EMA again. That means to me that oil is so strong that it might not test back the breakout level at 34.26... It seems to me that last week we just had a pullback again and the rally will continue. I'm quite sure that this week we will attack again the 200...

chartwatchers Updated 

Just as I thought the 200 EMA had stopped the price for a couple of days... Today is a very important day. After today's inventory data we will see the next 2 weeks' direction. AND I THINK IT WILL DISAPPOINT THE SHORTS AGAIN. :) If the oil inventory data is down we will broke above te 200 EMA and stop out all the shorts again (my bets are on this ) - green way....

chartwatchers

Gold seems to be starting its 4-6 weeks decline into the DCL. If it is then DUST will have the chance to produce it's bounce to the upside in the following few days. Watching the volume I'm quite sure that few big players had already positioned in this vehicle. It's a good risk/reward : if we just fill the gap it's 120%. I'm not going to hold this position more...

chartwatchers

Seems we are finishing the light pullback in NatGAs. We broke below the 10 & 20 EMA but price came back yesterday. It seems we are holding above these moving averages. The 10 & 20 EMA is still crossed over showing the way to the upside. If we break above 1.950 the next level is 2.171. Holding NatGas and UGAZ longs.

chartwatchers

If we have one more pop in the EurUsd befor we start to go the daily cycle low then we are going to have it as a breakout from the wedge. That should occur this week because we are running out from time cyclewise. I don't think the breakout can take out the 2015 October high , ECB will fight against that tooth and nails. These kind of bullish wedges are breaking...

chartwatchers

Direction is determined by the US dollar Index. Please see my US dollar Index chart also. The direction is heading down with the TSI and MACD divergencies, the question is will there be one more pop up to 1.15 or not... ?

chartwatchers

For EurUsd direction I'm always watching the US Dollar Index. I think now this is determining the direction. It might have turned on Friday (1). Or it needs to tag 94 and turning from there (2). It could last for 4-5 days.

chartwatchers Updated 

In the last 2 months we were able to catch the bottom in gold, oil and now in natural gas. Gold is now getting to the end of the rally's first phase. Oil is now at the halfway of the first daily cycle. And NatGas is just beginning... First of all I would like to summarize an important thing. We had a bottoming process in the metal sector, and now a bottoming...

chartwatchers

Frustrating time for Natural Gas shorts. :) Price is just crawling higher and higher. Every day is a new hope price will come back to show up a pullback. But that's just don't want to happen. Natural Gas has a long way to go. If it continues this crawling up it's not necessary to stop at 1.950. Price will just crawl through that breakdown level and heading to...

chartwatchers

Welcome to the currency war! Timing is important ... the FED needs the rate hike and the weak dollar together.

chartwatchers Updated 

Today is the typical example why shorting gold is not going to be easy. First we had a pennant with a breakout (red), with no follow through. Now it is forming into a wedge. It seems that it wants to break down from the wedge but I'm quite sure that's not going to happen. I think we are going to move in the wedge making a false breakout to 1310 to take out the...

chartwatchers

A pennant is under construction in EurUsd. A possible scenario for the breakout of the pennant if the FED doesn't hike the rates on Wednesday.

chartwatchers

On the weekly chart of oil we have a strong bullish sign : 3 white soldiers. Timewise we could have printed the intermediate cycle low 3 weeks ago. This intermediate rally usually lasts for 7-8 weeks. (Intermediate cycle lasts for 20 weeks) So we have a lot of time (4-5 weeks to run...) It seems we will not test back the double bottom breakout at 34.29 I'M...

chartwatchers

This business is so easy. Price can go to 2 directions up or down. Why people are still loosing money ? Because they forget the money management - opening too big positions- and because we are programmed to the corrections: "price will come back". I will post today's gold chart as neutral because I think noone can make a 100% sure statement that gold is going...