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OIL - Mind the gap
USOIL
, 60
Short
USOIL: OIL - Mind the gap
Updated 

After the drone attacks oil opened with a gap on Monday morning, but today instead of going higher it started to try to fill the gap again. It also break below Monday mornings low so the chance is pretty high that it's going to drop to 54,84 and fill the gap. There is also a chance that it's going to tag the bottom of the range at 53$. Today's volume is pretty...

TVIX - The Game
TVIX
, 1D
Long
TVIX: TVIX - The Game
Updated 

Fed lowers interest rate by a quarter-point, many on panel see another cut this year. 0.25 today , one more cut this year. Market is not happy with this so I think volatility will come back and the stock market drops into its DCL in the following days. Time to load up up with some TVIX shares.

Gold - Market Summary 2019.9.9.
XAUUSD
, 1D
Short
XAUUSD: Gold - Market Summary 2019.9.9.
Updated 

RSI is getting close to the oversold territory first time in 5 months. But I don't think the drop is over yet. This summer gold broke out of the multi year consolidation proving that we are in a bull market. The multi year bear market ended in 2015 December . The consolidation tried the traders' patience in the last three years but now we know this is a bull...

GDX - Final divergence
GDX
, 1D
Short
GDX: GDX - Final divergence
Updated 

I think the GDX rally is done too. All the indicators are showing divergencies in GDX. It rallied almost to the 2016 highs... We will get a pinbar ( inverted hammer or shooting star ) on the weekly chart. The weekly chart's indicators need to tag the oversold territory in this decline. It might close the gap at 24 -24.56 or might test breakout at 23.67$.

JDST one more Thing
JDST
, 1D
Long
JDST: JDST one more Thing
Updated 

... and the junior miners will not be an exception too... If the sector is going down the juniors will drop too. We have the same indicator divergences: GDXJ was underperforming in this intermediate cycle. While GDX almost tagged the 2016 highs GDXJ was not even close to it.

DUST - The thing
DUST
, 1D
Long
DUST: DUST - The thing
Updated 

Gold is holding up quite well today despite the strong dollar and the weak euro. One could think the reason because gold is ignoring the dollar strength. I think gold is just propped up to let smartmoney exit their miners positions ahead of the holiday weekend. The dollar will break out next week and the euro is heading lower . This will move gold into...

NatGas - Monthly overview
NATGASUSD
, 1M
Long
NATGASUSD: NatGas - Monthly overview
Updated 

Why the previous long idea is so interesting....? I highlighted by red arrows the 3 year cycle lows. There was a one in 2006 Sept, the next 2009 Sept, then 2012 April, and 2016 March... And I think the next one is here in 2019 April.... On the monthly chart the bear started in 2006. The first multi year cycle printed the low in 2006 September. The second one broke...

EurUsd - A bridge too far
EURUSD
, 1D
Long
EURUSD: EurUsd - A bridge too far
Updated 

In the previous idea I just closed the hedges a few days ago - and we are long again - I launch a new long idea because the setup is offering a brand new long entry here. On May 23 we had an intermediate cycle low and a daily cycle low. Before that low every time price tagged the 100 SMA it dropped and made a lower low. But after the last break above the...

GOLD - Gravity
XAUUSD
, 1D
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Gravity
Updated 

Everything that went up comes down sooner or later this planet. It's a sure thing just like the cycles. When price is starting to move down into the DCL the first red day of the decline usually has a 50% pullback. So most probably we will tag 1535 before we turn down as shown below: All the indicators are showing divergences on the daily chart. MACD and TSI...

GOLD - Papertiger
XAUUSD
, 60
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Papertiger
Updated 

I'm not playing this idea on my private account, because I'm not shorting gold in the middle of the intermediate rally, but some of you might want to bet on a 10-20$ drop in gold as it moves down into its daily cycle low. I see some kind of head and shoulder pattern evolving on the hourly gold chart. I would definetely not wait for the pattern to break and go...

UGAZ - Sleeping with the enemy
UGAZ
, D
Long
UGAZ: UGAZ - Sleeping with the enemy
Updated 

It looks to me we had started the bottoming process in UGAZ . Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and on August 5 we broke below 11.69$ and started to recover on the next day . The weekly chart of NatGAS last week printed a hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend. This week we have the follow and the weekly swing. Two weeks ago UGAZ had...

Precious Metals Market Summary
XAUUSD
, 480
Long
XAUUSD: Precious Metals Market Summary
Updated 

GOLD Though 3 days ago the daily close was the highest close since 2013, we stopped the rally. On the 8 hrs chart above it still seems we are just testing back the triangle but as we are on day 18 time is not working for us. Today is day 18. I'm expecting a top on the 25-26th day. That would be on or one day ahead of FOMC. The drop back below the triangle's...

SILVER - Easy Rider
XAGUSD
, 1D
Long
XAGUSD: SILVER - Easy Rider
Updated 

While Gold printed a big rally in May and June, Silver was just lagging. The XAUXAG ratio near to all time highs. I think it's time for Silver to catch up and make a huge rally in the second daily cycle of this precious metal intermediate cycle. Silver's ICL occured on the 20th of May while Gold's ICL was on the 2nd of May, so it printed the ICL 3 weeks later...

Silver Lining Playbooks
XAGUSD
, 2D
Long
XAGUSD: Silver Lining Playbooks
Updated 

I got a lot of messages these days... "Sir I missed the move in silver what shall I do?" " I'm short in silver I followed someone else, please help" And my favorite: " Sir can we buy silver now?" ... etc We broke violently the multi year down trendline in the last 2 days. Actually the above chart is a 2-day-chart because I wanted you to see how big was the...

GOLD - King of the Thieves
XAUUSD
, 60
Long
XAUUSD: GOLD - King of the Thieves
Updated 

The triangle plays out as expected. This time I didn't play the short side, because it's getting too dangerous for any short. You have to be very nimble and fast to jump out at the right time from a short position in a spiky bull market like this one. I'm also afraid this might be a tricky breakout without the tag of the lower trendline, so I will play this on...

GOLD - The range rider
XAUUSD
, 60
Long
XAUUSD: GOLD - The range rider
Updated 

This idea is simple. It seems that the 2016 high will be the line in the sand. As I posted a few hours ago in this idea I entered a long position at 1389-1391: Target : 1440$.

GOLD - Play it again Sam
XAUUSD
, 1D
Short
XAUUSD: GOLD - Play it again Sam
Updated 

We stopped out the last idea where we had to stop it : at 1413. Yesterday's close printed a pinbar again. At today's open gold was immediately slammed. I noticed that at the daily cycle tops banks often force price downwards and not letting it to recover above the previous day's close. This is exactly what's happening today. My entry was posted in the...

UGAZ - Who wants to be a billionaire
UGAZ
, 1D
Long
UGAZ: UGAZ - Who wants to be a billionaire
Updated 

When you make enough loss in an 1x ETF time to switch to the 3 x leverage little sister at the bottom. Time to take the advantage of the collapsing dollar in something what is printing the bottom in these moments. Natural Gas -after shorted to death- is printing a 4,9% rally today. UGAZ had a capitulation volume last Thursday. This is the place where I want to...

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