cogent-trader

cogent-trader

The DXY follows Fib levels quite accurately on macro movements using the monthly chart. Both on retracement and extension. It has recently tagged the .618 retrace of the last bullish wave 5 movement that started its decline. I would suppose it is close to completion of wave A of a ABC correction that will play out over the next several months. As it tagged the...

cogent-trader

Long term chart from 1985 USD peak to current situation. I believe this instrument is completing a large wave 4 and setting up for a wave 5 down. The Fib ratios and levels work out pretty well in the wave 4 with the 4.618 (of smaller 3 to 4 extension) right where it reversed this week. Used UUP put contracts to enter the short on 7/14/22 with UUP at 29.03

cogent-trader

On this chart I removed all drawings and just focused on whether we can state there is a divergence in Bitcoin as we look for a bottom. 8H price action in a falling wedge over long term 21 day RSI reading is showing us a clean inverse bullish print. Coupled with an extreme fear reading on the gauge after this mornings 2k+ crash and rebound, maybe we're...

cogent-trader Updated 

I wanted to see how many similarities Bitcoin displayed across each of of it's first two 4-Year halving cycles. Then, compare those to the current first year of the new and third, 4 year cycle that we're currently in (I linked a trend line chart for the BTC 4-Year cycle). Here is what I found: 1. In each Year ONE following the halving event in year 4, the most...

cogent-trader

We've been trading GBTC while hodling BTC long term. Using the BTC charts has worked and the assets are tightly correlated relative price action and percentage gains. Most know or should know that GBTC can swing from a discount to a premium against the underlying asset. Chart: some folks called the bottom in July as minor wave 2 of a new wave 1 uptrend in a...

cogent-trader

I recently shared my long term view of Bitcoin using the 4 year halving cycle chart. It helps to look at major assets from this angle for holding long term. After putting this chart of the S&P 500 together I was again fascinated with the very measured and controlled price action and consistent rise in index value over the past century. It speaks volumes for the...

cogent-trader Updated 

First off I must credit @rektcpaital for publishing his 4 year cycle chart here on trading view and a video explanation on his You Tube Channel youtu.be would recommend following him here, Twitter and out on You Tube. Brilliant technical analysis and insight. So,I simply ran a trend line across the closing highs of the prior Year One Candles (YOC), into infinity...

cogent-trader

With SPX hitting extreme overbought on short-term RSI on the D, W, and nearly on M time-frames, it's hard to risk long positions. Long term RSI on the D is also extreme overbought and approaching same status on W, near on M. Yet, the market grinds higher as we know it can ignore technicals longer than expected. Mainstream media is completely bullish and FOMO seems...

cogent-trader

First off, I wanted to thank everyone for the kind comments and likes on my DXY post a few days ago. Really nice! I've been watching the S&P 500 very closely for months now climb back towards it's previous highs. Having taken long profits at 3200 and again at 3270 I haven't much participated in this last leg. A few day or short swing trades in gold and tesla but...

cogent-trader

Fellow traders, full disclosure I never trade the dollar nor hold any open positions. However, for GLD & SLV and the indices the DXY matters relative to its inverse relationship with the former and off & on directional relationship with the latter. The COT report (not attached) is showing that institutional hedge funds (aka smart money) are increasing their long...

cogent-trader

Watching the grind higher very closely. Taking some time today to revise and exact potential levels where the rally unwinds and the wave down begins. Complacency in stats like historically low put/call ratios are real now. However, amateur and retail investors are still bearish (not believing). Institutions are still net long S&P 500 but have been accumulating...

cogent-trader

Did we start wave 2 of the final push to SPX gap fill and all time high? Reading up again 61.8 or less of a pullback is rule 1. Today hit 23% mark. Small position to go long if wave 2 completes appropriately. 3400 target.

cogent-trader

First off I need to credit and thank Alessio Rastani at Leading Trader.com (LT) for the knowledge I've gained since late April (should have joined LT years ago). I have lost large sums of money over the years by having a "gamblers" mentality. Expecting the market to follow my hunches and beliefs versus actually understanding what is playing out on the charts....

cogent-trader

I've been learning more about gaps and their importance in price action from Alessio Rastani, Leading Trader. Down gaps especially have the need to eventually go back and fill. During the market crash, Gold displayed massive volatility and formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern through FEB & MAR. A bullish pennant followed in APR & MAY above the inverse h/s....