darcy_kincaid

darcy_kincaid

Fundamentally the us$ is in better shape that some other currencies, but that is not necessarily a recommendation. Unsustainable spending, huge deficits, an aging population of retirees clamoring for their government promised benefits, along with fewer working age taxpayers and a moribund real economy, does not bode well for the value of any...

darcy_kincaid

Coffee has reached a price level which will set coffee prices for years to come. Fundamentally, political unrest will propel the price higher quickly while any increase in the overall economy from this point forward should add to worldwide consumption. Energy price increases should add to these catalysts. Technically the chart is a make or break, as any failure...

darcy_kincaid

IBM has set a record for the longest Swing trade in it's history that has hit a 3rd target without a significant retrace. A 10 year in-the-making Swing trade has recently hit a long-anticipated price that underscored that Very Long Term Swing trading is still very much alive in the stock market. From a fundamental standpoint, IBM is a hard-to-beat choice for VLT...

darcy_kincaid

CMG received it's first kick in the pants for a long time recently when earnings failed to meet expectations.High-flying aggressively bought parabolic stocks are always a hair away from a quick "correction", and this is just a recent example as a reminder. Fundamentally the earnings report was still strong in our opinion, though it is difficult to believe that...

darcy_kincaid

AMZN is probably in a class by itself as one of the few companies that enjoys a long history of bullish price action with no appreciable profit to justify such loyalty. It's ultra thin margins are legendary and shows that logic is rarely a component part of a large investor's skill set. Fundamentally there is no justification for the stock 's lofty price. All the...

darcy_kincaid

AUDUSD is very much a currency that is commodity driven and that for better or worse is inextricably linked to the rise and/or fall of the 800 pound gorilla, aka China, and to a lesser extent, SE Asia. Our view is and has been that audusd will continue to rise LT simply because there are no fundamental reasons that are currently known to cause most investors to...

darcy_kincaid

Strong product lines, and a hoard of cash are factors in Apple's favor. Recent announcement to pay dividend will impact bottom line but not to any worrisome degree. Fundamentally a very strong company and a current favorite of investors and well-capitalized traders alike. From a technical standpoint, the recent breakout to the upside has positioned AAPL for a...

darcy_kincaid

Google's numbers from a fundamental standpoint have always been good. We see no reason to alter our analysis that this is a winner Long Term for investors and traders. An eventual target of 1200ish is still our LT analysis. As anticipated, GOOG has broken out to the upside of a wide trading range that has been traded for 2 1/2 years. It has taken 9 attempts from...

darcy_kincaid

We have never been a fan of Facebook's fundamental business model. We have seen hundreds of faddish, super-hyped internet-based companies whose schemes sucked in unwary investors. Our position has always been that this is the most recent example of "much ado about nothing". When GS bought a sizable stake pre-IPO, we correctly predicted that GS's target would be a...

darcy_kincaid

This is a very important level for the market as the Long Term Short that has been in play since March 2012 is at the failure point. Not coincidentally this is of course occurring on a Friday afternoon, when many market participants would prefer to be taking off for the weekend. As we have been stating since March 2009, we see no viable outcome for the market...

darcy_kincaid

The long term chart of the eur/usd gives a very clear picture of where we are re price action. The Long Term Swing Long has been retested and predictably there is a bounce in progress. There is still alot of room for it to run, especially with the ECB promising to do "whatever it takes". There is nothing in the chart to preclude a sizable retrace on the bullish...