FOMC is 17 days out. The market direction from here might hinge on how aggressive the fed is. A strong cut 50bps would probably signal to the market we'll boost assets. 25bps shows restraint in balancing the risk, which I think is more unemployment now, and would probably be the catalyst to make the markets a little more fearful. I'm not expecting much volatility...
This looks like it may break the support level, which is a breakdown on a wedge on high tf. This is what it looks like before big dips, there is now a catalyst driving oil up. If nasdaq closes under this level, I expect a giant sell off so I'm ready here. If it holds, then the narrative might play that there is an asset rally as the dollar falls. Currently gold...
Based on historic cycles, I've noticed that BTC is the first to show risk off sentiment in the market. This time may be different, but next week what I'm testing for is BTC to start to retreat towards 44k to show a broader weakness in the market. 2021/2022 BTC and crypto showed the market direction _before_ equity started to retreat on the rate hike cycle, so I'm...
NVDA in a tradable spot here. As Nasdaq is right on the high TF trend line, I'm looking at the two markets side by side and ready to play a movement from this zone especially tomorrow after PCE. The markets are really breaking down down down, so I'd guess that tomorrow we'll see a structural breakdown. If PCE comes in good, I'm curious if it'll make much of a...
BTC has dropped and re-entered a symmetric consolidation area. Next targets for me are 68k or 62500ish. When consolidation breaks, I expect either 73k or else 56500 areas to be tested. On fundamentals, german supply is done selling. Mt Gox and US Silkroad supply are still there so I would have been favouring the downside. Except republicans look like they'll...
It's going into the weekend, so not huge confidence on this play yet, but I have some interest on BTC long from looking at the low TF PA and I think the 56500 fib will hold and BTC will look to retest towards 60500. We'll see what happens. If it breaks down, I'm looking towards 52500. Trade what you seen.
I took the S&P short entry today, this looks good to me. There is an ascending wedge. The macro makes sense, with the markets repricing towards one cut. BTC sold off first, which usually happens. Equity could keep going with the government spending, but I'm seeing more calls on risk off.
BTC is breaking out of a symmetrical triangle, and is tested an observed fib around 60550. If it breaks down, I'm eyeing 56k. If it can find support, 66k would be my target to the upside, but only if it's able to get over ~61500. It looks bearish to me, I'm trying to find a short to hold here, I don't think that this will hold based on the recent macro prints.
Looks awesome, just check back. I don't think we'll see higher, but who knows! This looks like a great short.
Nasdaq broke out of an ascending wedge to the upside beginning of june, and I'm seeing some signals that a correction might start as the markets are way out of whack with "main street." The data doesn't make any sense, even Jpow said that the employment data doesn't seem accurate. Whatever is happening, just talking to people show that the narratives in the data...
Been waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting for the next trade. No volatility, nothin' happening. No gains to be made. Waiting, waiting waiting. It's like a little kid inside me "can I trade now? can I trade now? can I trade now?" Rational mind has to say "not yet... Okay now!" Can see my two market top calls on the Dow - I removed a lot of em from other...
Nice surprise today! I shorted at bell ring but not holding it. Closed after hours. For the swingers, you're dead already. For the noobs, you're wrong. For the intraday warriors, it doesn't matter, you'll make money no matter what. Competitive markets (BIG MARKETS) hunt liquidity. Breakouts from ascending channels retest. That means your ludicrous stop loss and...
There are lots of different theories and perspectives and setups. Layers and layers and layers. My trading plan/theory for the next week/month is to try to find a nice blow-off rally into all time highs before the real selling starts. Most people are deer-in-the-headlights unaware that we are on the brink of what is going to be a historic financial crisis. There...
Not financial advise, and anything could happen, but there is historically an 80% probability that this breaks down. The US Government and the Federal reserve have made some grave errors. Same mistakes over and over. This one looks real to me. Not a correction. Not a dip to buy. It's a maelstorm from hell. In real dollar terms, we touched 2021 highs here and...
This is a potential setup for a short late day. Dollar is dropping relative to yen and chf, voldq is good and strong at ~2.8 towards close. If the next hour can get us a good run up, then you might find a short off of DR high 18700 into the bell. It would be a surprise, i would want to see it really run hot into the last hour. PCE tomorrow, expecting some risk...
The yen is usually pretty stable, but it’s been sliding more. Last time it got to this level, the Bank of Japan had to step in and burn 30bn in USD to buy the yen back up. The news said roughly that they don’t look at the price, but the velocity, so I have alerts on rapid moves on the yen to be able to show up and get on the BoJ’s side of the trade. Last time I...
have sight of a parallel descending channel on nasdaq. Buckle up! Additions on the top of the channel. Profit taking on the break from channel up. I hypothesize it runs like this for days, but have to keep watchin'
Do you think "markets only go up?" Did you know that, accounting for inflation, the nasdaq has not exceeded 2021 levels? Even with nvda and the AI rally, we're only really at 2021 levels (!!) in real dollar terms. Here is the nasdaq price divided by US CPI. This is a potential "double top." If the fed don't move the rates down to 0% immediately, I suspect we'll...