dieseldub

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Through my previous "big picture" posts about VIX/VVIX and VIX as well as high yield corporate bonds ( AMEX:HYG or AMEX:JNK respectively) I have been maintaining we're in that end stage of a bull market, but for now to "keep buying the dip." Things are getting a little shakier lately, but I still feel like new highs can be made based solely on how AMEX:HYG ...

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Last summer, as BTC tapped what I thought might be it's pre-halving high of about $31,000 USD, I used www.tradingview.com indicator to point out that we had tapped the trendline that generally indicates we are at or near a price high for the mini bull cycle inbetween halvings. It was right... for about 3 months. Then the entire crypto space exploded higher,...

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Going as far back as the VIX goes, there really hasn't been a period of volatility movement so tightly suppressed. The VIX has slowly been creeping up since its December bottom, but in the tiniest movements possible. No real significant spikes. Now, I alluded last fall to there being potentially one last big rally before this market tops and we go down. This...

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One of my www.tradingview.com posts posited that an upwards divergence in $VIX/VVIX could indicate we were getting nearer a market top. I also guessed that we would probably see one more decent rally before the bears really took over. I might be eating my words. This rally has been so insane that we've reset VIX to lows we haven't seen since 2019! The...

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Per www.tradingview.com analysis here , I'd like to point out an update that we have just set a higher low from the multiple compression low of VIX and VIX/VVIX from the mega bull run early this summer. This is a sort-of warning shot that the market is starting to become unsettled about sustaining these prices long term. Does that mean sell it all right now? No,...

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This is not something I would use as a trading signal by itself, but it is a good indicator on the weekly chart of how bigger players are viewing risk appetite. High yield corporate bonds, as seen reflected in ETFs like AMEX:HYG and AMEX:JNK , are an interest data point. High yield implies that these are riskier bonds with a higher chance of default on the...

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I'm not normally a currency trader, but I do take a look at them here and there along with U.S. bond yields, I drew this trend channel awhile back, and now it's looking like there's a good chance EURUSD reverses back to the upside here soon. To further the basic idea here, in a couple weeks we will have another FOMC meeting, and based on the way the 3 month...

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My two most recent posts were identifying a potential upcoming trade idea behind Euro bouncing back vs. USD soon, the chart today has made it looked more prime for reversal, finding ever increasing support, and slightly weakening 5 year yields in both Euro and U.S.. The difference between the two looks like it may start to contract a little in the coming weeks as...

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Talking some more about EURUSD and why I think it's about ready to have an about face and go back up, looking once more towards something that represents treasuries with maturities in the range I had shown as being useful for indicating EURUSD relationship moves. NASDAQ:IEI represents 3 to 7 year maturity treasuries, and with the 5 year being the metric I've...

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I cannot take credit for this. I believe I saw this basic layout posted on Twitter by Will Clemente some time ago. I just re-created it myself so I could have the ability to watch in real time the larger crypto market cycles with this indicator. It is the market cap of stable coins USDC and USDT added together in parentheses (USDC+USDT) divided by total crypto...

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Very brief follow up with the EURUSD short term bull case I was building last week, and finally put on a trade on Friday before close, both the Euro FX futures CME:6E1! gapped up, and the MOEX:DX1! futures gapped down. If this follows through, that bodes well for my AMEX:FXE calls. I will add, the options market in AMEX:FXE are not very liquid. You will...

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Advance warning of longer term swing in EURUSD Forex pair thanks to difference between US 5 year yield and EU 5 year yield. The challenge is, while it can point to an upcoming longer shift, it's still not going to tell you the perfect timing for the about face. It of course is not the only thing that will contribute towards a shift in the currency pair, but it is...

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A couple days ago, I published this idea . It's an idea taken from a setup Will Clemente published on Twitter last year as the crypto space was bottoming, more specifically, as Ethereum hit bottom. He was using total market cap of USDT + USDC divided by total crypto market cap. I've revised this to add the next two largest stable coins, DAI and BUSD, by...

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I've really started to like parallel channels a lot as part of very simple TA. On the daily or weekly charts in particular. It works pretty well for Bitcoin, it works especially well for stock indices, particularly SPX/SPY for longer term trends. It's just an excellent visual of waning buying pressure as upwards price movement starts to fall out of an ascending...

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This is nothing new, really. People who have been in markets long enough know that when short term bond yields (3 month and 2 year, for example) come up to meet and invert to a higher yield than longer term bonds (like the 10 year, 30 year etc) that it often precedes a large market sell off as well as a recession that affects most everyone, not just stock...

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Just happened to be playing with a few things on tradingview today, thinking of new ways to identify trade opportunities. I often have to keep reminding myself to zoom out to see the bigger picture. This is one of those instances where I might have stumbled upon something useful for very long term trade trends. As many know, VIX is an extremely useful indicator...