doctorfibonnaci

doctorfibonnaci

looks like a perfect H/S pattern... even including a back test. i put this in a log chart, fyi. time will tell... thoughts?

doctorfibonnaci

Like clockwork, the s/p500 bounces off the trendline and 50 dma support. Could this time be different? Consider the overshoot on the top trendline. Will this be a textbook BULL TRAP??? happy trading.

doctorfibonnaci

We reached this 11 year trend line... in the past, it has hit it and dumped, but there were also times when it rode the trend line, grinding for months. What will it be this time???

doctorfibonnaci

if you believe that gaps must be filled, the Russell 2000 is looking pretty gappy..

doctorfibonnaci

Here is a monthly chart of the russell 2000, a very well defined trend line. the last three times it hit the top trend line, there was a significant correction that followed. This time, with massive QE, it blew out the top of its trend line. Do you believe in mean reversion? or is this time different? 3 significant points are converging on this chart: 1) this...

doctorfibonnaci

sometimes its nice just to appreciate the beauty of the patterns...

doctorfibonnaci

VIX has been trading in a peculiar way for the past several weeks. After the last downdraft in equities, it has refused to go down. Interestingly, today it hit this up sloping trend line for the 3rd time. If this trend line breaks down, chances are the S&P will go up to new highs. But as long as it holds, VIX is basically saying "The Emperor has no clothes!".

doctorfibonnaci

This is the weekly chart on a log scale. There is a beautiful tendency for the price to eventually revert to this multi-year trend line. When is a good time to buy in? When you are at or below the trend line. It takes patience, but why pay more when you see the trend so clearly? Importantly, bitcoin traded down will all assets in the Covid Crash, trading below...

doctorfibonnaci

I've been trying to chart the russell 2000 pattern given the recent price action and have been stumped to try to find trendlines with 3 or more points of contact. Today's price action appears to have put the third contact point on the upper trendline... And there are three points on the lower as well. If 3 points confirm the upper and 3 the lower, either one or...

doctorfibonnaci

This is a monthly chart of the high yield corporate bonds ETF - aka "junk bonds". Notice that it is right at the a multi-year trend line. I expect this to start to go down given the multi-year resistance line. Yet one more canary pointing to a market top.

doctorfibonnaci

I used 1552, the top tick in 3/2000 and 666, the low tick in 3/2009. This gave me a fib projection at the 4.236 level of 4416, yesterdays perfect top tick, 4416 on the money! fundamentals to support this top call: -volatility has been getting crushed as the market goes up, but in the past week, vix actually increased with each new high. -bond market rally...

doctorfibonnaci

I've been underwhelmed with my ability to use candlestick logic, but this looks like a "hanging man doji", a bearish reversal. supposedly, a strong red candle down tomorrow will confirm. markets are wound so tight right now, its unbelievable. i trade primarily vix, and now even a 3 point move down will get a healthy uptick in vol. not only that, vol also...

doctorfibonnaci

First, hat tip to @JTheretohelp1 for this idea! This is a monthly chart with Fib extensions. The trendline has the s&p crossing 4500 just after the Jackson Hole FOMC meeting (Aug. 26-28). A machine like grind, 25 points a week will get us there. After that, a major crash. The mother of all crashes. Everything will need to be reset. You might even call it...

doctorfibonnaci

Possible megaphone pattern in gold. This of course breaks my heart, as I love gold and hate dollars. However, there are several strange things happening right now: 1. All time highs in stocks... nothing new. 2. Dollar rally? How does this make sense? A rising dollar is usually risk off. 3. Mild rally in TLT (long dated treasuries)... Again a risk-off trade....

doctorfibonnaci

Here is the monthly Nasdaq 100, on a log scale. The most simple chart in the world. Don't fight the Fed.