elroytrader1

elroytrader1

Simply following the last two up-wave fractals, give you 19225, only 2% away from where we are now. However, the Trump rally is over-extended, may pull back as per red lines.

elroytrader1

Suggests pullback to 1.25 then up again. Note bearish pennant as well.

elroytrader1

On the weekend after the Trump victory, we have seen a huge increase in equity prices, with the DJIA reaching an all time high. This was to be expected with an across-the-board Republican victory, not only winning the White House but both houses of congress, a situation not seen since 1928. However, what was not expected from a protectionist was a rise in the...

elroytrader1

In the Brexit spike, the fat finger spike, and the Trump spike, in each case we got around 61.8% retracement before a further fall. However, if you overlay Aug-Oct 16 price action to now, it gives a clear fit to Trump action, suggest a further fall (in USD). This is one of my wilder hypotheses, btw

elroytrader1

I have overlaid the 9m before Brexit (compressed) for two possible paths. The blue (fast one) is more likely, it gives you the non-fat finger double bottom of psychological roundpoint 1.20 in December, perhaps as Trump fails to give the UK a 'special relationship' trade deal. The red one gives you a longer map. Either way, $GBPUSD may have topped for now.

elroytrader1

Stocks have rallied hard on Trump's victory. However, the $VIX is hitting a support line. Reversal may come soon. Long $VIX

elroytrader1

As usual $JPN225 and $USDJPY move together, but the index has fallen a lot further. Indices normally recover first (see Brexit)

elroytrader1

For some reason, the Swiss index constantly leads silver. No idea why, but it's tradable.

elroytrader1

DAX in USD has followed tramlines for a week or two but now looks like it will break down. As EURUSD is not likely to fall further, this implies a substantial DAX move to the downside

elroytrader1 Updated 

Fractal and tramlines both say short here. See also my DAX/USD chart

elroytrader1

No reason why it should, other than fundamentals, but it came up in my correlation check.

elroytrader1

It may make another run at the top tramline, or may not. (SPX500 and US30 still have a clear run up). However, four touches at the top and three at the bottom are not to be argued with. Remember this is in USD, so you either match a DAX trade with a short EURUSD, or use the EWG instrument.

elroytrader1

1. BRK.B has made a very clear head and shoulders 2. The fractal pattern of Sep 15 to Jan 16 fits quite well, and even offers two touches to 61.8% support 3. The company is largely in defensives, hence great upside is unlikely. The Summer S&P dip will be reflected here. 4. Warren and Charlie, God bless them, are not getting any younger. Now is the time for...

elroytrader1

CL_F March price/action suggests a drop to lower tramline, say the 61.8% at 44.06, and maybe the 50% at 42.36 (Apr 13 high). Daily CCI overbought, RSI 68 (nearly o/b, hence allow for $50 roundpoint spike) Short here 48.50 SL 51 TP1 44 RR 1.8 TP2 42.30 RR 2.5

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DAX could still be regarded as bullish, it needs to head back up to 10500 now. The rate hike probability is not good for DAX, but also implies a sharp fall in EURUSD which may hold it for now. However as previous studies have shown, EURUSD and DAX tend to decouple after FOMC.

elroytrader1

Fractal from Jan-Sep 2015 is a good fit. We are now about 23 April 2015. Beware - the implication of a double top is in EWG, not DAX. EURUSD price/action must also be considered.

elroytrader1

After noticing the sharp spike up, I tested tramlines, EW, and RSI, and got a possible H&S

elroytrader1

GBPUSD continues it's inexorable decline pre-Brexit vote to 1.412. Fib touches are shown.