finitemonk

finitemonk

It appears to be in a small wave 4 (possibly of 5 of 5 of 5) on the hourly chart. One more high over 110? Connected to what going on in global indices, a significant top in this pair, the DXY & a bottom in PMs?

finitemonk

This might be correct. What tipped me over was the last 3 days candle formation (don't know if it's called anything), but what I do know from observation they are not often successful in producing thereafter meaningful upward movement, i.e they more often than not are precursors to further downward, esp. when the 3rd has a shorter body than the 1st. So I...

finitemonk

Is the question. I've read comments like elsewhere like 'of course it is' .. Hmm. Volatile, & looking a bit well, toppy … 'Depends how you count it.' : see previous post (may not been my best post - bit Friday afternoon, nevertheless, it does depend how you count it). More clearly: If this wave is counted as complete, as looks natural, in, of itself, from...

finitemonk

Mentioned this, previous post, a 'b' wave. Comparing to other less print pumped indices, e.g Eurostoxx (faintly in background), apart from significant % scale difference, a case for this current bull market being the most enormous expanded flat in history (not wholly my idea). My focus is a potential error in the wave count. My previous recent posts note the 2022...

finitemonk

Detail or not, seems there is no point in trying to describe that as anything other than what it is - wave iii of (iii). (wave v I think, slow resignation) (note to self - go with broader picture) It's broken the 0.618 retracement of wave 5,(green) (crucial marker) and both the down channel line (double) and making a good little headway under the long term up...

finitemonk

Although it's dropping I see nothing clearly motive - too many ups & down, i.e it's still zig-zagging, so abandoning triangles as it dropped out, a flat? Still rare as a wave ii. I think a strong possibility this is being seen as a short term correction down to the lower edge of the now famous up-channel (emphasised in dark), so happily just sell off & buy...

finitemonk

Seems to be. Point d still tbc. Still acting correctively (in 3's). US session I think taking it back up, choppily to 1982/86 area. If falls short of 1986.3 / 0.618 retracement, & with failure to break above recent intraday highs (a & c) could precipitate resignation / acceptance of a bear market (of which I interpret this triangle as denial) Expecting...

finitemonk

Labelled as in red. What I'm watching is the formation of the wave (arrowed red), by a little upthrust could easily be motive. Other considerations: 1) wave (v) difficult to label, doing odd inverted turns, not wholly confident. 2) the alt labelling would be somewhat supported by fractal in practice, i.e the previous larger wave 4 also unfolded in a similar...

finitemonk

Very precise engagement & pushing ... (Hmm, seems to have lost the upper parallel on mine)

finitemonk

Just going to write this and boom, the EURUSD breaks lower. I was going to say, be warned, there's likely an extra leg in dollar crosses, partly because Gold ideally needs to break to multi year lows in a wave 5, below 1178.5, following Silver down Take care in UJ shorts, there's a wave count which MAYBE means one more high, perhaps corresponding to a wave (ii)...

finitemonk

So far so good. I THINK now in iv of (i). Importantly it's broken & trading below the strong up channel of 5 (lower heavy dotted line). I've chipped out my short trades now, I want to see how high (ii) goes back up. As a relief to bulls frantically trying to convince, could be a bit of spurt ... 1986.3 is a significant price level - 2.618 off wave 1 (or A, since I...

finitemonk

Very close to a major channel top. I was looking at the wave count of the recent upward move, thinking it's nearing an end & realized looking back how many times it has touched this channel top (the lower is quite ragged), since the 1980s only been above this once, during the rise in oil price, dotcom boom years etc. 4 x : June 1989, November 2005, March 2009,...

finitemonk

As given: stock markets tend to move synchronously & any downward adjustment is likely to occur together. One labelling solution as here on EuroStoxx is possible without compromising rules of overlap, wave 3 longest etc. makes wave 4 as a giant months long expanded flat (3-3-5). Not that it was much of a 'correction', it did break the support line. Most indices,...

finitemonk

To the side is often a good position. The markets have gone a bit '4'. (I think the EuroDollar is maybe in a four also, WTI is certainly sitting at wave four price point) Wave Four KeyWords: Disappointment & Confusion - there is plenty of the latter. Labelled as I had is yesterday I was sure it was over: now I'm not. I THINK one more leg down, to complete a 5...

finitemonk

Technically this a-b-c correction appears to be very close to completion, & will be once the 100.747 early Feb low is taken out. (Caution: there are no RSI signs (divergence of this producing a major bottom. Also abc patterns themselves can be part of larger corrective patterns)

finitemonk

Gonna stick with the a-b-c-d-e idea here from DXY, and remain short. I don't see any huge reason not to. (I though earlier it was gonna blow the top (& the wave count). A broader thought: is part of the reason for the current 'stuckness' of the majors, because the GU needs to go over 1.7042, it's Aug 09 high in order to fullfill wave theory in an A-B-C, meanwhile...

finitemonk

(c) wave?

finitemonk

(Or why the markets are moving sideways) In what appears to be a truncated falling wedge with a bullish outcome. Not resolved until late May. (Currency futures expiry follows a couple of weeks later June 16) It also appears just day to day now to be in some sort of abc pattern, even extending to d,e possibly. Reflected in the EU. Metals - Silver into an abc...