fringe_chartist

fringe_chartist Updated  Jul 30, 2022

The market is ultra bearish, but perhaps we're about to establish a sideways trend? The market has been hinting it for weeks and has not set lower lows. Fundamentals are bearish, but conditions are reasonably oversold for now in the short term. It makes sense for a reflexive bounce as shorters cover their positions, but alas I do not think it will be enough to...

fringe_chartist Jul 30, 2022

Similar to January 2019, we're due for a technical correction and bear market rally. We're riding the resistance bounds of short term gains, and now that it's opportune for market markers to turn the viewpoint of the crowd bullish again, it seems like shorts are now the crowded move and perhaps the wrong move. Long-term momentum should remain bearish (white line...

fringe_chartist Jul 12, 2022

Some people say that things are getting cheap. I agree, they are in the process of getting cheap, but we're not quite there yet as far as historical bottoms go. The Russell isn't that cheap yet, still twice as expensive as in 2009. Unless a true miracle happens, it's hard to see any upside in this market as far as real wealth terms(as opposed to numerical price...

fringe_chartist Updated  Jun 7, 2022

The market is making an attempt to rally, but we will need to violate this repeating pattern if we can expect any upside from here. Otherwise, it's just another good entry for short positions. Why buy an overpriced market if holding cash would yield positive with no risk of entry or exit? Here are some sentiment metrics and things to keep in mind, some technical...

fringe_chartist Updated  May 15, 2022

This is a medium term swing/position trade that has a pretty good chance to play out. Check out this fib idea below which underscores the idea. Obviously, don't panic buy unless you like riskier trades. Ease into your entry! June thru October looks like a decent entry if nothing too crazy happens, but a surprise via some global disaster could RUIN this trade....

fringe_chartist Updated  May 13, 2022

This is an equally weighted symbol of S&P + Crypto Total. It ranges from 0 to 100, with 100 being the Nov 2021 peak. We are entering a low risk zone historically, but crypto has never truly seen a bear asset market! I think we will get to the green areas in the chart, and if it is a true bear market, possibly sideways and lower for a bit longer than most expect....

fringe_chartist Updated  May 12, 2022

Be aware, there's a reoccurring theme in stablecoins lately, and doesn't seem to be getting better yet. Many crypto/assets are down more about 50% in a few weeks! Now would be a good time to partially close some shorts issued against stablecoins, or if you sold lots of crypto and hold stablecoins which are still lucky enough to be stable: USDT, BUSD, and a few...

fringe_chartist May 11, 2022

When will jet fuel stop making all time highs? I think this speaks volumes about the continued pace of inflation combined with a post-2020 "get me outta here and fly me somewhere" mentality, in addition to other factors. So now people want to fly after not flying for a few years. Why do we have to pay mafia level prices now? I guess now it's time for the...

fringe_chartist May 10, 2022

Looking at the price of platinum, it looks kind of overpriced, like many other things. But when adjusted for M2, it's much lower than most things. Seems like a great deal TA wise. Longer term chart: 10x the price of 1970 = ~1500. This target seems pretty low not to mention we aren't even there yet! But the short term pattern looks like a bit of a topping...

fringe_chartist May 7, 2022

The current FAANG symbol does not have a very long history. Depending on the symbol, you get a chart that either starts from mid-2019 or 2016. We get couple more years of data in this chart, back to early 2014. I weighted each stock equally according to its 60 month average, and adjusted for M2 expansion, which gives us a very consistent support line. There's also...

fringe_chartist Updated  May 7, 2022

If a deleveraging like 1999 is happening, perhaps we will see 1999-2008 in oil play out in a similar fashion? Not saying it will or won't happen, but it currently looks like oil is setting up momentum for a future breakout. I copied the bars pattern from 1999 to 2008. Maybe it's too bullish? Or maybe not bullish enough. I would venture to say that it seems so...

fringe_chartist Updated  May 4, 2022

Random realization: If you take the region above the 52W MA during 2018-2000 (white line), take those candle patterns, and mash them together, you get a pattern which matches the current candles to a disturbing degree. The only difference being, of course, there wasn't a massive dump between the two pasted patterns. We dropped down multiple times in 2018 to test...

fringe_chartist Updated  May 3, 2022

Every 15 years, there seems to be an alternating shift either into gold, or away from gold. It's amazing that just charting the simple average of Gold vs S&P with no fancy modifications, we get such a clear picture. Of course, the price growth in the chart is just an indirect result of money supply growth, but these average trends tell us more of where the money...

fringe_chartist May 2, 2022

Silver vs gold seems to be a killer trend trade. Silver has been very strong lately but gold could make some interesting moves as well. Good luck and hedge your bets!

fringe_chartist May 1, 2022

Just a combination of a couple old charts, but I wanted to make clear why assets are rising post 2008. There seems to be a direct correlation and causal relationship in FED ownership of assets as a percentage of M2 and asset prices when adjusted for M2. Lots of other charts seem to imply this by charting other things but this one shows the actual thing side by...

fringe_chartist Apr 26, 2022

Equally Weighted M2 Adjusted S&P + Russell looks like it will turn negative soon in terms of moving averages. If this week closes at the current price, it will be the first time the 400 MA started to decline slightly since 2020, and if sustained will be the first time since the 2000-2008 era. It took 8 years to turn back positive in 2016. Almost any combination of...

fringe_chartist Updated  Apr 15, 2022

Suppose you wanted to ask the question, hypothetical of course: What percentage of the economy does the FED balance sheet comprise of? If you were to replace "the economy" with "M2", then you could get something easily measurable. Simply use the symbol: FRED:WALCL/1000/FRED:WM2NS One is measured in billions, the other millions, so we divide by 1000 (I say just...

fringe_chartist Updated  Apr 14, 2022

The FED's monetary policy is a lot like that scene in the Wizard of Oz where they think they are communicating with a great and supremely powerful wizard, but Dorothy's dog incidentally pulls back the curtain while sniffing his leg. To the disdain of Dorothy, Tin and Straw man, it's just some goofy looking guy pulling levers and talking through a loudspeaker while...