function_mechanic

function_mechanic

We know that the current cycle can continue until the end of 2025 and in that case the top is likely to occur in November . We also know that Bitcoin topped out at around 2.36 (2013 and 2017) and 1.618 (2021) fibs in the past. Let's assume it'll reach 1.618 again this time. Price action is also moving in an ascending channel. If we put it all together on the...

function_mechanic

While there is some danger of a deeper correction in the near future, the longer term picture is strongly bullish: Bitcoin is clearly in an uptrend on the monthly timeframe. Higher highs and higher lows. Even crashing all the way down to 30K will not violate it. Elliot waves: we have completed 3 waves so far and we're in the wave 4 right now. Wave 5 can be...

function_mechanic

We have reached the old ATH too early in the cycle and have been stuck in a consolidation for almost 6 months since then. This can end with a crash now. A final shakeout before the next wave up. The situation is similar to 2019 - early 2020. Too high too early, then a long boring consolidation period, and finally a crash (triggered by COVID). The difference is...

function_mechanic

This chart is also available as a static image: INTRO The study presented here divides Bitcoin cycles into separate phases, then measures the duration of each cycle, as well as of each individual phase and some of their combinations. It is then demonstrated when a possible top of the current cycle is likely to happen. A possible price of the cycle top is...

function_mechanic

SPX is going to test two macro trendlines soon. The first one, the top blue line on the chart, connects the peaks of 1929 and 2000. The second, red, is less obvious, but it has many touch points. It's an internal trendline that goes through the lows of 1932 and 1953 and the highs of 1987, 2007 and 2021. The two trendlines intersect in December 2024 slightly above...