giloc

giloc

Premise: The US will enter a recession so the behavior of stocks may not follow the fundamentals. Many funds may have to liquidate positions to have liquidity. INTEL: The "Book Value" is around $26.5 The Blue flags indicate strong support tested several times over the years between $18.6 and $20.40. The Red flags indicate a strong resistance to the same...

giloc Updated 

We got some levels never seen in the last 40 years. Usually, the recessions start when the Yield Curve changes direction and comes back to positive territory. This time the numbers are huge and considering the National Debt Level...we could see an Economic Depression. Interest rates reduction within September 2023 and the start of the Recession by July 2023? My...

giloc

1987: Inflation was 3.7% and Yield 7%. The Trendline has been broken twice. Above 3.5% will have a Recession and with a 7% Yield, we'll get a 50%-60% S&P500 correction. Dark time is coming. Let's also consider that the actual overall debt is huge. Much much larger than in 1987 so the problems could be much worse. I guess they should invent another Plan-demic or...

giloc

I can see a very similar pattern ( to the 2008 pattern) is happening now. Can you see it? I hope you can see the lines I drew in 2008 and 2022

giloc

I think that Paramount Global (former Viacomcbs) is one of the most hated stocks at this time, Let's compare it to Netflix. Revenue: PARA: 8B$ - NFLX: 7.7B$ Cash on hand: PARA: 6.3B$ - NFLX: 6B$ Long Term Debt: PARA: 17.7B$ - NFLX: 18B$ 2 days ago PARA confirmed a 2B$ debt (due in 2024) redemption. That means they are going to save more than 90M$ per...

giloc Updated 

"What Is a Triple Top? The triple top is a type of chart pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal in the movement of an asset's price. Consisting of three peaks, a triple top signals that the asset may no longer be rallying, and that lower prices may be on the way. Triple tops may occur on all time frames, but in order for the pattern to be...

giloc Updated 

Fundamentals: 2 main reasons VIAC dropped so badly. 1) 5% Stocks dilutions (30M Stocks at 85$ and Viaconcbs raised almost 2.6B$ ) 2) Hedge funds Margin Call. 5% dilution could see a 10% drop in the stocks, not more, considering that the company raised some good cash to invest in the business. Let's say 9$ drops from 85$ = 76$ (Fair value after dilution if...

giloc

I can see this downtrend channel.

giloc

During all the major financial crises the Dow Jones retraced by at least 50%. This financial crisis, although the Federal Reserve continues to print money, I don't think it will be any different. In 5 weeks more jobs have been lost than those recovered since 2009. 30 million jobless . The GDP fell by -4.8% and a collapse of about 15% is expected for the next...

giloc Updated 

We know...Market doesn't follow any logic. Finally the super overvalued stocks are starting fo fall . Anyway, there are very few stocks which are quite undervalued. Benjamin Graham’s Criteria for Picking Value Stocks VALUE CRITERIAS: Graham advised buying companies with Total Debt to Current Asset ratios of less than 1.10 - ODP Current Assets (in millions) 2,870 ...

giloc

Since May 2014 there is no more correlation between US$ and S&P 500. There is a huge divergeance.... I cannot do any forecast....I have never seen a market like that...even in 2000.

giloc

Will the Gap at 1.07 be closed? The Euro/US$ has no gap open since it exists...this is the only one...

giloc

After several lower highs since 2015 Finally the VIX made a Higher High last August (above 17) that was higher than the last lower High (on May 2017) at 16.2. I guess it's possible a re-test of 17 quite soon (within 8 working days) and maybe a test in the 20 area (second higher high).

giloc

Never seen a Dow like that... Fear disappeared. No worry about Brexit, Italy Problems, Trump-Russia Connections, Fed Rate Hike, S&P 500 Shiller P/E 28, S%P 500 Dividend Yield just 1.99% (vs 2.47% 10 years Treasury Bond Yield)....Nothing...I think Tech.Analysis cannot work with this type of market...only "luck" can work...I prefer so stay out and wait the 2017....I...

giloc

As I wrote some time ago...Dow is going down to the first target at 17750 (200 ma)...and then....we'll see cause there are 2 gaps up open...anyway...first target confirmed on the 200 MA....

giloc

The Short position opened on September 28 is still confirmed. First Target at 17600 but probably it will close the gap up at 17400. I'll close the short position only if the Down closes above above 18350.

giloc

Markets (Dow and Nasdaq) continue to open GAPS...Too many. This is a sign of big stress...there is fear! Dow is going to close the new gap down(second gap in 4 days!!!) at 18250 ...If tomorrow the Dow will close the day under the 50 mm...the short position is confirmed....Target the 200 mm at 17600 first and then the GAP at 17400.

giloc

The gap down at 18440 was closed and the Dow closed below the 50 mm. Weak signal. The Dow (probably today) will close the gap up at 18300 and then...I see the possibility to test the 200 mm (17580) and eventually to close the gap up at 17400.