Tops take time however QQQ is obviously very stretched here and the recent consolidation is providing Bears an opportunity to open short positions with relatively low risk. The big challenge is that tops take time - they have a way of chipping away and frustrating bears. Watch for a break of the Trend line and Back test failure for a Bear trigger
QQQ seems to be creating a top here on the Trend Channel Chart. The symmetry with the previous Top in 2021 is striking. The consolidation at this extreme extension makes price look vulnerable however Tops take time and that can frustrate bear positions. Bear Stops are often placed just above the Top Trend Cap but the Top formation has a way of triggering those...
Long Term Trend Channel Chart of Gold showing the first inflation wave resulting from the funding of the Vietnam debacle in the late '60s to early '70s. Squashed by Volcker raising rates to the moon. 2000-2011 Bull started by Greenspan flooding money in response to the Y2K scare and the US war in Afghan and then goosed by the GFC in 2008. I would suggest 2015-2019...
The Bear trend still dominates the Gold Miners in this Trend Channel Chart Weekly view. A break-out and back-test of the obvious Bear shoulder is needed before the Bull Swing can get going. Look to the Trend channel rails for price targets.
Here's a Daily candle Trend Channel Chart of GDX with a Fibb retracement targets for Bull positioning. Bears look for opportunities on counter swing trends back to highs or backtests. Bear trend emerges sub 1900. IMO
GDX is now sitting in an intersection of the Bear & Bull Swing Trend Channels put in place from the Pandemic Crash. A tag of the lower rail at around 24 is likely which would take GDX down another 10%-ish. This does not mean a Bottom is in and a new Bull swing will start but it is the first step in starting to track for a potential turn. A complete failure at...
Here's a 2 hour candle trend channel chart for GDX pre-FOMC. Today's FED update will be a big test for the PM sector. After a huge sell-off since April the trend appears to be making a bottom here. However, IMO - as I see it, a volatility spike low is a real possibility as bids and offers dry up around the news releases and Powell's presser. The tell will be in...
Here's an update to the weekly Trend Channel Chart for $GDX I first posted on the 15th with a target of 24-ish as a possible swing bottom. the signal would be the tag of the Lower Rail intersection .. getting pretty close now.. the ideal bottom set up would see a spike through the intersect followed by a quick reversal back to the low Gold coloured rail... ...
Here's a long term Trend Channel Chart for Netflix that identifies resistance and support levels for all three scenarios: 1) Continuation of the Bear Swing; 2) a return of the Bull Swing or; 3) a long grinding sideways range
Here's a long view of the USDX using Measured Moves, FIB Retracement and Trend Channels to plot the developing Bull Trend. Both of the last two Bull Trends in USD progressed in a similar fashion despite differences in underlying conditions. Note the similarities in wave structures, trend slopes and the time for each feature to mature. If indeed 'we are here' then...
