iamroot

iamroot

This trading range the past week appears to have been fully exhausted and the market profiles for Wed-Fri are edging higher with higher closes. I am expecting to see a continuation of the upside auction this week.

iamroot

You've been trading on one screen for a while and struggling to succeed. Maybe you just need a second or third screen and you'll be all set? An elaborate trade desk setup is like putting a really expensive scope on a rifle. It's not going to help you shoot better until you master basic marksmanship fundamentals. If you put that rifle in the hands of a novice that...

iamroot

Another bear flag on the ZN monthly, but this one is massive with lots of volatility. The next leg down might be ugly.

iamroot

Seriously. If he says buy it, short it to zero. If he says short it, buy the hell out of it.

iamroot

The market appears to have nearly exhausted all business in this consolidation zone. We're very near the downward trendline on the daily chart. The MAs have rolled over on the 30min chart and VWDB on the 30 min has turned negative again. I stopped publishing with the daily and 30min charts side by side because I work on an ultra wide monitor and Tradingview...

iamroot

There's been some significant price action since my last BTC update. As I expected, the market appears to be finding near term support near the December 1st 2020 high, just above 20k. I would expect a near term bounce to find selling pressure above 24k. If the 20300 support level breaks, There is little market structure to lean on to the downside until...

iamroot

Bitcoin has been forming a nice balance area for the past several days. Sideways consolidation after a trend is a stronger indication for that trend to continue than a pullback is. Sideways trading after a strong down trend should be viewed as a pullback that's unable to actually pull back. This is happening because new sellers are entering the market as fast as...

iamroot

You can clearly see that Energy has been the leader, and is in fact the only reason why ES isn't below 3600 right now. Consumer discretionary has taken quite a beating all year, likely due to higher input costs. Worth noting is that consumer staples appears to now be joining consumer discretionary in this downtrend. Utilities are behaving as the sector should be...

iamroot Updated 

Bitcoin is currently painting a bear flag after strong rejection of higher pricing. Note the strong increase in volume on the way down, compared to the very low volume once price began to channel slightly higher again. Because this can continue for an unknown duration, it is advisable to wait for a breakout from this structure before selling. Upon breaking lower,...

iamroot

Just a quick post with a warning: This is NOT a buy. The market has broken through every support area that mattered. The market looks structurally very weak at this level. There is plenty of room to the downside from here with very little market structure to lean on. The next potential support areas are around 24000, and then 20000. For now, traders should be...

iamroot

The entire price action year to date has been sideways. There have been attempts to break out of this range but nothing sustained. Longs and shorts can be entered with confidence when price touches either extreme of the range. The successively higher lows suggest that this pattern will eventually break out, but since the rising trendline is very gradual, I'd posit...

iamroot

This is not a commodity, a meme stock, or even a cryptocurrency. This is the S&P 500 futures. When in doubt, zoom out. Look at where we are: I've added (orange line) M2 money supply for comparison. After years of trying since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has finally been able to goose inflation, and now they've lost control. Inflation stats are...

iamroot

After today's move down we could see a pullback. It was a bit of a stretch to try and draw a clear channel around this recent downtrend, but I approximated it the best I could. We're currently sitting at the bottom edge of that channel. If the channel is holding then we could see a pullback which would offer new opportunities for short entries. These medium term...

iamroot

The island top that was left above the 2 month balance range proved to be a powerful reversal signal. BTC has traded quickly back down through the balance area. Look for a test below the rising trendline in the next few days. We have seen 2 deep tests below this trendline in the past 2 months, but no daily close below it. A test below, followed by a daily close...

iamroot Updated 

This market has now returned to test the level which had been previously holding as upward resistance before the break out that started on Sunday. The next few hours of trading will either validate or invalidate the move to higher price. If this area provides buying support tonight, Then there is significant upside potential. The next set of notable daily highs...

iamroot Updated 

The fly in the ointment so to speak with this rally has been the fact that I've been watching this market shed open interest the entire way up. Yesterday again, the market shed another 9.4k contracts. A healthy rally should be gaining open interest and trading on increasing volume. This rally has been running on light volume, decreasing open interest, and often...

iamroot

Bitcoin is trading to the top of its 3 month balance area. This level has presented as strong overhead resistance this past couple of months. A breakout above this level on increasing volume would likely see Bitcoin trade to 52000 in the coming days. More likely will be a rejection of this level, seeing Bitcoin trade back down through its recent range. I say...

iamroot Updated 

The short squeeze, as I believe this rally has been, has run out of steam. Open interest information all last week and Monday was blurred by rollover activity from the March to June contract. Nevertheless, this market has been losing open interest the whole way up this rally. The volume weighted directional bias indicator has been showing divergence on the 30...