intelligent_investing

intelligent_investing

Last week I showed the TVC:SPX would reach 3200+. See here . BINGO we have arrived. What's next?! Most likely a few more scribbles higher to finish this impulse off the 3070 low and then a move down back to 3070 for wave-4. As this market continues to count well as an impulse up and not as some sort of over-extended b-wave or what not, applying the impulse...

intelligent_investing

In my last update from 10 days ago I was wondering if we were dealing with a diagonal or standard impulse. Regardless of these two larger price patterns, I was looking for ideally 3087-3043 to be reached before the next leg higher to 3190-3230 would commence. We got SPX3070 and now the TVC:SPX is already making new ATHs. Looking at the smaller waves off this...

intelligent_investing

Two weeks ago I shared my view on the TVC:SPX in that it was either following a standard impulse patterns higher or it was following an ending diagonal pattern. I mentioned back then " The first sees (grey) minute-iii complete soon then wave-iv (orange target zone) and then wave-v to complete (green) minor-3 ." Ideally I would have liked to see wave-iv reach ...

intelligent_investing

Keeping it simple: tracking a standard impulse vs a diagonal. The first sees (grey) minute-iii complete soon then wave-iv (orange target zone) and then wave-v to complete (green) minor-3, etc. the other is looking for a larger top and then a larger decline before the markets rally again. Thus, the next pending correction should be bought either way. Trade safe!

intelligent_investing

The price action on the TVC:SPX since the May 1 high has been rather frustrating and overlapping. For one, the index is only up 3.9% since then. IMHO this means the TVC:SPX is working on a larger ending diagonal Primary V wave. Ending diagonals move in 3s (3-3-3-3-3) most of the time and this means (red) intermediate wave-c of black major wave- 3 is now...

intelligent_investing

Using Elliott wave one can determine once an uptrend has ended as the market simply has run out of waves. Here I assess the waves off the November 2008 low (yes the NASDAQ:SOX ) bottomed well before the other major US indices and has thus been a market leader since. However, it's price pattern off the December 2018 low is all but ideal and in elliott wave terms...

intelligent_investing

Not too much to add to Tuesday's update as price continues to remain in the ideal target zone. Seems like it "wants to" tag that upper red trend line around the round TVC:SPX 3020 level, but for that to happen, 2983 must hold. A move and close below it targets low 2960s AND direct overlap with 2960 then make the whole move up off the 2855 low only three waves....

intelligent_investing

Last week price on the TVC:NDX overlapped with what could potentially have been a wave-i of an five-wave impulse (i,ii,iii,iv,v) higher, making it therewith most likely only a wave-a of a three wave (a, b, c) sequence higher where wave-c was 1.618x a. Today the Bulls had the change to try for a possible diagonal pattern. Namely, in diagonals the 4th wave (iv/e)...

intelligent_investing

The NASDAQ100 (NDX) broke below its August 22 high and therewith invalidated its potential to do five (i, ii, iii, iv, v) waves up off the August lows. Instead it became only three: corrective. Namely, when a new move starts, even if it is five waves up or down, we can never know beforehand with all certainty if that move is an impulse (wave-1 of a 1,2,3,4,5 move)...

intelligent_investing

Currently, IMHO the ideal setup would be a small c-wave down into the ideal wave-4 target zone followed by a rally to SPX3045-3075 which would then provide for a nice setup for a larger decline into late next month to adhere to the pre-election year seasonal average pattern this market has been tracking well all year so far (see here ). A break below SPX2940...

intelligent_investing

Last week I presented two options " The first is that the S&P500 has completed classic symmetrical triangle. It is a continuation pattern, meaning that the move going into the triangle will continue. In this case it was the move from 3029 DOWN to 2822 that was the initiation move. Assuming SPX2939 was the top of the b-wave, then simple symmetry targets: 2939 -...

intelligent_investing

The month of August was very hard to forecast, track and therewith reliable trade as price raced back and forth in a 120p range on the S&P500. Life would be very easy if we'd known beforehand this would happen. But how could one know!? After several back-and-forth races the triangle option became more and more likely and today's price action combined with Friday's...

intelligent_investing

My last update I ended with " Lastly, note that I label the larger waves as i/a, 2/b etc, because we can never know before hand if a move -even if 5 waves- in either direction is the start of a new impulse (i,ii, etc) or part of a correction (a,b,c) where wave a and c are also 5 waves... So to prevent hubris, always label them as both initially until the market...

intelligent_investing Updated 

In yesterday's premium member daily major market (see here ) I already warned that a move below yesterday's low at SPX2905 would tell us the market would most likely to go lower. And so it eventually did. I say eventually because,and of course, it (had to) whipsaw hard first when it did dip below 2905 briefly this morning (first mouse gets the squeeze...) only to...

intelligent_investing

In my first update on ROKU, on August 9, I warned "bears would want to step aside until at least 138-140" as that price zone would provide for a more substantial top. I was then looking for " Based on Fib-extensions and retraces we should see this wave-iii top at around 138-140, then a pullback to about 112ish for a wave-iv of 5, before wave-v of 5 ideally targets...

intelligent_investing

The S&P500 (and all other major US indices) experienced some (nice?!) whipsaws last week: Neither the bulls nor bears won. Whatever the future may exactly hold, the recent price action is very confusing and still, believe it or not, range bound. I've seen more ways to Elliott wave count the price action over the last two weeks, which in the end IMHO means it is...

intelligent_investing

Yesterday's rally in the SP:SPX sure looked like the Bulls were back in control, only to wake up this morning facing a over 30p gap down thanks to the Futures market. Hallmark of a Bear market? Sure doesn't feel and look Bullish to me. Shake and Bake? Sure a cake most Bulls and Bears choked on. Whipsaw City? Sure can't find a better place than this. So what's...

intelligent_investing

On August 9 I posted that the S&P500 "could get more complex than one would think" because it had the potential to do a more whipsawing a,b,c for all of b/2: " BUT, price can still care out a more complex pattern (alt: a, b) before topping. So don't take this decline for granted just yet. It is even possible that today's decline is only a smaller wave-3 of wave-c...