itzbert

itzbert Aug 15, 2021

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itzbert Mar 23, 2018

CAD should outperform NZD over the coming weeks. Constructive NAFTA news suggests that the US may be getting closer to an acceptable agreement with its trading partners, which should lead to a continued re-pricing of the trade risk premium. Risks to a more dovish RBNZ continue, with the new Policy Targets Agreement likely to add a second employment mandate and...

itzbert Mar 19, 2018

"We recommend selling NZDUSD targeting 0.7130 with a stop-loss at 0.7315, implying a reward-to-risk ration of 2:1 (spot reference: 0.7252). In stark contrast to the Fed, the RBNZ is likely to strike a dovish tone in its March Statement, given recent disappointing activity data. Following the February MPS meeting, Assistant Governor and Chief Economist, John...

itzbert Mar 14, 2018

European FX - including GBP - is best placed to rally against USD. GBP should find support with rising prospects that Britain may soon start to see the beginning of the end of austerity, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer prepares to announce the smallest deficit in a decade during his Spring Statement on Tuesday. Philip Hammond is expected to announce plans to...

itzbert Mar 13, 2018

USDJPY is attempting a recovery but with the medium term up trend broken the broader outlook remains bearish. Might retest 38.2% fib before a deeper usd sell off against 1H2018s bullish yen (Charting is a combination of Credit Suisse & Goldman Sachs private analysis)

itzbert Mar 12, 2018

We recommend selling AUDCAD targeting 0.9914 (50-day moving average), with stop loss 1.0150 (above recent highs) for a total reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1. As discussed in Asia Pacific: US tariffs: A minor setback for now, 2 March 2018, the steel tariffs reinforce our view of AUD underperformance on the basis of late-cycle domestic dynamics, and an expected...

itzbert Mar 12, 2018

"We expect risk appetite to rebound, helped by benign wage growth in the US. In this environment, short CHFNOK trades should do well. Recent Norwegian macro data have generally beaten market expectations, with forward looking indicators like PMI also holding up well. NOK also receives additional support from rallying oil price which helps its oil sector, as...

itzbert Mar 11, 2018

Current levels of EUR/NOK could offer interesting selling opportunities. NOK should outperform EUR in the coming weeks and months on the back of growing policy divergence between the Norges Bank’s policy outlook and the ECB’s, which is reflected in an increasingly negative 2Y EUR-NOK rate spread. The divergence could intensify as both banks start to cautiously...

itzbert Mar 10, 2018

PLN has come under pressure after the National Bank of Poland reiterated its dovish stance at its policy meeting yesterday. Governor Glapinski suggested that the NBP may raise rates at the end of 2019 at the earliest, but current projections show no reason to raise rates before the end of 2020. This comes after the NBP revised its inflation forecasts marginally...

itzbert Updated  Mar 10, 2018

Australian economic data have continued to underperform, with retail sales and Q4 GDP printing below expectations. RBA Governor Lowe continued to emphasize that near-term rate hikes are unlikely. EUR should continue on its upward trend, buoyed by robust data and the announcement that the SPD has confirmed a coalition with the CDU, which should result in...

itzbert Mar 10, 2018

BRAZILS RISK PREMUM IS STRETCHED See "Summary Statistics" in doc below www.bcb.gov.br BRL's risk premium (currently highest across EM peers) looks stretched, given a continued pick- up in growth and reducing near-term political risk. COP's recent rally was likely driven mainly by a reversal of heavy short positioning, without a material shift in the country's...

itzbert Mar 10, 2018

Swiss private investors are underinvested in foreign assets as they have refrained from foreign portfolio investment since 2016 and pension funds hold high FX hedge ratios on their bond and equity portfolios. If CHF is no longer strengthening, the incentive to roll on their hedges is lower, suggesting less CHF buying. As Eurozone breakup risks remain low and the...

itzbert Mar 6, 2018

"Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) have endorsed a new coalition with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), their Bavarian sister party. That puts Germany’s long months of coalition wrangling to an end—the election was held on September 24th—and gives Europe’s largest economy a stable government. It also secures Mrs...

itzbert Dec 17, 2017

Enter at TL Break or .382 rejection candles.

itzbert Dec 17, 2017

Enter now or wait for Trend Line Break and .382 Fib rejection candles to form near the Yellow Circle on chart. Past two years, we have left left this zone