jamesfrench73

jamesfrench73 Updated 

For now, the safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc has bolstered its strength, especially amid the recent political turmoil in Europe. But once the geopolitical concerns have subsided I think the safe-haven rally will weaken. …and with it the price, which I expect to take a natural retracement. Whether this will be enough for a bearish reversal, I do not know. But...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

Why is the Yen collapsing? And is MoF intervention inevitable? This is a difficult question to answer without diving into the the macroeconomic factors that the Japanese government and the BoJ are trying to mitigate and overcome in order to achieve their objectives. It’s not simply a case of interest rate differentials, although I suspect this is a large factor...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

We’ve seen the euro plummet this week but is the move an overreaction to the geopolitical events currently taking place in Europe? With the snap election in France and the rise of the far right in Germany along with the recent rate reduction from the ECB are we now starting to see the cracks emerge? Personally, I think not. Whilst the EU may have its challenges...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

Risky but calculated potential long for EURGBP. As previously stated, this pair has been ranging between (circa) 87.50 and 85.00 since May of 23’. It would appear that the pair may have entered a potential bearish channel (yellow) from September 23’ to present. Within this bearish channel the price has been moving within a bullish descending wedge (white). It...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

As can be seen in the charts, the eurjpy has been moving with the confines of a rising wedge since circa feb of this year. We are again reaching the upper resistance of this structure which could mean a pullback in price could be just around the corner. To further support this, there is moderate divergences between price movements and the indicators...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

A potential for a bullish move may be forming in the EURGBP. The chart shows the formation of a falling wedge (yellow), although there could easily be an argument made that it is a descending triangle; both can result in a break of structure to the upside. Also note, a strong support line (green) which has been in place since summer of 2015. Moreover, there...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

Given the chart pattern and overextended nature of this pair I’ll be looking to short this cross if the pound continues to gain in strength. A short entry on this pair will be taken with considerable caution due to the divergence in monetary policies. That being said, given the UK’s lacklustre economy I think further rate rises, although needed, will be...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

Since January we’ve seen a gentle downtrend in the EURGBP (red channel), which has seen an acceleration in pace since the end of April (blue channel). We are now at the lower limits of the prevailing channel but with room to fall further with our next major support being around the 0.8575 area which coincides with our blue channel support. Fundamentally, the two...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

This is not an idea to trade, just my very brief And very simple observation. Following the latest ECB interest rate decision I question if this is the point at which the UK and EU monetary policies diverge. With the UK experiencing an increase in inflation I expect interest rates to be increased in line with this. The price has now broken the support...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

I don't know about you but the indecision of this pair is frustrating me. For me its 50/50 right now. I think the only logical route is for a retest of trend support at 0.8715 highlighted by the intersection of the blue and red lines. The price has been in a pretty steady bullish trend for just over a year now and has is in the process of printing an ascending...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

I’ve entered a sell position on this pair and plan to scale in if the price moves higher. My first entry is 1.12354. I don’t believe the move will be as large as my usual trades but I feel it’s a decent setup for a short trade. The price is continuing to move within the confines of an ascending triangle, this in itself usually results in a high probability of a...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

Today has been a day of weakness for the EUR and I have a suspicion that it’s related to the risks of contagion since SVB collapsed in the states and in turn the response from the fed. I think this has lead to speculation in the ECB’s resolve to tackle inflation and so betting on the rise of rate hikes tomorrow and also going forward. I don’t believe that...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

Hey Guys and Galls! I think we can all agree that the EURUSD is a pretty big market (understated) that most traders have dipped their toes in at one time or another. I've noticed a pretty interesting inverse correlation between Trading View ideas and general price direction so I just wanted to ask you a quick question to see what happens. Which will we see...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

I am currently looking to sell this index. It is no surprise to anyone who reads my ideas ,not many:p, that I am of the option that whilst the latest inflation data coming from the UK has ticked lower, I believe it will again raise its head to bite the UK on its ar$e. I guess more importantly, I think the inflation data coming out of the US over the coming...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

There’s been some decent swings in price lately. I believe the reason we witnessed such a dramatic rise and fall in price over the past two weeks was not so much due to euro strengthening over the pound, but because the pound weakened against the dollar more so than the euro. By this I mean that the pace of capital flight from pounds to dollars was more...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

I’m looking to short this pair anywhere between 1.09-1.10. Realistically I’ll scale in as the price rises. If the price rises. The recent price moves seem weak to me. The fact that it’s moving within a rudimentary ascending triangle in conjunction with a volume drop off is quite telling. Divergence between the price and indicators is quite stark and all this is...

jamesfrench73

Next week is a big one for the pound, and by extension the EURGBP. Assuming there are no fundamental surprises in data I’m expecting the EURGBP to move lower. Analysing the volume and the divergences between the current price moves and indicators suggest that this recent move is beginning to run out of steam. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the pair...

jamesfrench73 Updated 

Absent the lack of key fundamental surprises I am slowly leaning to a bearish stance on this pair. The economic situations between the two is very similar. Both are also experiencing a much milder winter than was previously expected which seems to be helping both Germany and the U.K. economically. In my opinion, the BoE is being more dovish than the ECB...