jasperlawler

09:01

jasperlawler

There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question. On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend. When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner -...

jasperlawler

The setup is similar in EUR/USD & GBP/USD - because of the dollar in both major pairs! The GBP price is testing the broken uptrend line on the weekly- and could break above it. On the daily chart, a downtrend line has already broken and so has critical resistance at 1.25, suggesting a break above the weekly uptrend line Should the breakout follow-through it...

jasperlawler Updated 

Finally the long term triangle pattern in blue chip UK stocks has broken - and the weekly chart for the FTSE 100 index is looking very positive. The breakout weekly candle is a long one with a close right near the highs - showing bulls are well in control of the market. We can see the triangle break in more granular detail on the daily chart with the break...

jasperlawler Updated 

This is a chart of the benchmark index for Hong Kong - HK50 It's up on Monday, while Nvidia is down 10+% If funds are flowing out of Nvidia - China (home of DeepSeek) could be one place they end up. The Hang Seng is a perfect example of how long a trend can take to reverse. How many times would traders have tried to go long this index only to see it slump right...

jasperlawler

The US dollar is in a correction of its uptrend (see EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD etc) Do we really face a linear option of fade or no trade? Actually, it might be a false dichotomy . Going long EUR/USD and GBP/USD (i.e. selling USD) would mean fading the major trend (as per the weekly charts). But going short USD/CHF (i.e. also selling USD) would not be a...

06:06

jasperlawler

Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price. But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us. On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President. I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas! The crypto market...

05:58

jasperlawler

This is for anybody who wants to sell some Bitcoin but is still bullish crypto. 🚀 It’s also if you’re neutral on crypto but think Bitcoin is overvalued vs other tokens. It’s also just if you’re just interested to see a way to apply a pairs trading strategy . In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, Bitcoin just broke over $100k - No more waiting for the...

06:04

jasperlawler

How do you know when you’ve missed the boat? A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late! Sometimes, you just have to let go, right? Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example. International Hotels Group (IHG) Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 -...

03:22

jasperlawler

They say a bad workman blames his tools. Quite often, good work means using the right tools. In a trend you need to use trend-following tools - and the most famous indicator is the moving average. When it's a fast-moving trend, you need to use averages taken over shorter periods (e.g. 20 day SMA > 200 day SMA). Likewise a slower trend needs averages taken over...

jasperlawler

Do you trade A) Before the breakout for a better price OR B) After the breakout for confirmation ? We usually prefer B) But it helps to think through some scenarios that could happen beforehand Looking at EUR/JPY - see how it is trading in a tight range? Well other EUR pairs like EUR/USD have been falling. That shows relative strength . Or put another way -...

jasperlawler

There are always reasons not to take a trade. You have to take a 'weight of evidence' approach - and you'll still often be wrong ;) The idea: Trade GBP/USD short on a daily close below critical support. Looking for 2:1 RR Reasons for: Trend is lower (falling fractals / price below the 50 DMA) Momentum is to the downside (MACD below zero) If the break...

jasperlawler

Any trade you take in oil right now is probably going to make you a quick win or loss . Oil has easily been the most volatile market this week - it's pretty obvious why 1) Hurricanes in the US disrupting supply 2) War in the Middle East For us, the trend is higher since breaking through $76 / bbl. And the latest fractal forming a higher low helped confirm this...

jasperlawler

On the daily chart, there is a clear break of a downtrend line with a confirmed weekly close above it - unlike during the liquidity grab where the price broke higher but then closed the week under the trendline. This broken trendline and Friday’s low at 161 is now support. Should the price be able to break above the August peak, a next possible upside target is...

jasperlawler

1. Previous ATH at $60,000 in 2021 formed a double top. 2. Support ~$30,000 broke. 3. Bottom in late 2022 after a bullish RSI divergence. 4. 50% retracement at $30,000 (support-turned-resistance) 5. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement matched RSI overbought at 70. 6. Price fully retraced 100% of its decline to hit a new ATH. 7. 161.8% Fibonacci extension has objective...

jasperlawler

We all know the UK needs more houses, and that the ones already built are waaay unaffordable. The scramble to move house in 2021 corresponded with a big rally for building and construction stocks in 2021, admittedly alongside a lot of other parts of the UK stock market. That rally retraced by exactly 61.8% (Fibonacci) in 2022 and STOPPED FALLING. Since then its...

jasperlawler

If the double top on the weekly chart is going to hold, then there should be a good amount more downside in USD/JPY. If it doesn't - we'll exit this trade. 149 was a key breakdown area - in case of a rebound we can enter short. A close above 149 probably nullifies this trade. 145 is the key target.

jasperlawler

Just under 42K in BTCUSD is the 50% Fib of the entire drop from record highs to the 2022 low. It is also the objective from the recent triangle breakout. Note: this is very counter momentum - which are usually works out pretty quickly - either in profit or loss! Also - the triangle is probably part of a bull pennant in which case the upside objective is more like 49K.

jasperlawler Updated 

Brent crude oil looks to have made the 1st leg lower in a new long term downtrend Trade: Wait for bounce from recent thrust lower to cluster of resistance to go short