jasperlawler

jasperlawler

The bias for EUR/JPY - in our view - is higher On the weekly timeframe: A) WMA has flattened out and price held above it B) downtrend line broken and held On daily timeframe: EUR/JPY just broke resistance for possible breakout trade up to the olf high to 166 - and possibly beyond Thoughts ?

jasperlawler

OK, it's not really a double top (although lots of people refer to these situations as such) It's a re-test of the long term high and could see the current uptrend get rejected. Can look to the daily chart for confirmation of the breakdown Thoughts?

jasperlawler

USD/SEK has broken below major multi-year support. While below there we are looking for shorts (i.e. bullish the Swedish krona) The daily chart has corrected higher but the trend is down. Another breakdown through the lows could setup another leg lower Thoughts?

jasperlawler

The Norweigan krona is T'ing up a major long term breakout vs the US dollar NOK/USD (Nokkie) broke out but saw a sharp whipsaw lower Now it's back re-testing the highs Thoughts?

jasperlawler

The trend in gold is higher and no doubt it can go higher still.. BUT There is a possible short setup because: A) It's very overbought relative to its weekly average B) A Weekly shooting star reveral pattern took place on the weekly chart C) The daily chart shows a possible breakdown Thoughts?

06:39

jasperlawler

It’s not a big secret actually- I’m talking about crude oil! In the final week of 2024, the team and I highlighted two versions of the WTI crude oil weekly chart and asked ‘is this the top trade of 2024?’ Version 1 has already happened, WTI crude hit $55 per barrel, the downside objective of the smaller triangle pattern on the chart. Version 2 showed a much...

jasperlawler

The SnowWhite IMDB rating can't get any worse - could the same be said of Disney stock? Price is the ultimate proof but buying the shares of a well established company when sentiment is at a low point can be a fruitful endevour. The poor box office showing + very weak ratings for Snow White - maybe a contrarian buy signal ? A) The stock is attempting a long...

06:33

jasperlawler

There was a big fast move in EUR/USD last week. The ‘European currencies’ did especially well versus the US dollar, including GBP/USD and USD/CHF as well as the ‘Skandies’ SEK/USD and NOK/USD. If you rode the move, then job done. If you did ride the move up, you might have taken full profits already - or maybe you are leaving a little bit of the position open to...

09:01

jasperlawler

There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question. On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend. When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner -...

jasperlawler

The setup is similar in EUR/USD & GBP/USD - because of the dollar in both major pairs! The GBP price is testing the broken uptrend line on the weekly- and could break above it. On the daily chart, a downtrend line has already broken and so has critical resistance at 1.25, suggesting a break above the weekly uptrend line Should the breakout follow-through it...

jasperlawler Updated 

Finally the long term triangle pattern in blue chip UK stocks has broken - and the weekly chart for the FTSE 100 index is looking very positive. The breakout weekly candle is a long one with a close right near the highs - showing bulls are well in control of the market. We can see the triangle break in more granular detail on the daily chart with the break...

jasperlawler Updated 

This is a chart of the benchmark index for Hong Kong - HK50 It's up on Monday, while Nvidia is down 10+% If funds are flowing out of Nvidia - China (home of DeepSeek) could be one place they end up. The Hang Seng is a perfect example of how long a trend can take to reverse. How many times would traders have tried to go long this index only to see it slump right...

jasperlawler

The US dollar is in a correction of its uptrend (see EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD etc) Do we really face a linear option of fade or no trade? Actually, it might be a false dichotomy . Going long EUR/USD and GBP/USD (i.e. selling USD) would mean fading the major trend (as per the weekly charts). But going short USD/CHF (i.e. also selling USD) would not be a...

06:06

jasperlawler

Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price. But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us. On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President. I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas! The crypto market...

05:58

jasperlawler

This is for anybody who wants to sell some Bitcoin but is still bullish crypto. 🚀 It’s also if you’re neutral on crypto but think Bitcoin is overvalued vs other tokens. It’s also just if you’re just interested to see a way to apply a pairs trading strategy . In case you’ve been hiding under a rock, Bitcoin just broke over $100k - No more waiting for the...

06:04

jasperlawler

How do you know when you’ve missed the boat? A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late! Sometimes, you just have to let go, right? Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example. International Hotels Group (IHG) Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 -...

03:22

jasperlawler

They say a bad workman blames his tools. Quite often, good work means using the right tools. In a trend you need to use trend-following tools - and the most famous indicator is the moving average. When it's a fast-moving trend, you need to use averages taken over shorter periods (e.g. 20 day SMA > 200 day SMA). Likewise a slower trend needs averages taken over...

jasperlawler

Do you trade A) Before the breakout for a better price OR B) After the breakout for confirmation ? We usually prefer B) But it helps to think through some scenarios that could happen beforehand Looking at EUR/JPY - see how it is trading in a tight range? Well other EUR pairs like EUR/USD have been falling. That shows relative strength . Or put another way -...