jd5584

jd5584

My last post on Russell 2000 cycle found several analogs which suggested another visit to the lower channel line. That occurred, and for good measure, a secondary sharper break lower developed beneath the 200d MA which looked like it had completely broken the Russell. (Even the cycle suggested low was postponed more than 2 weeks). Looking at previous instances,...

jd5584

Yesterday A.M., noticed quite a bit of similarity with the backdrop to the early July lows in stock indicies. This market is in a constant "trap mode" whereby the only energy created to sustain modest moves needs to perpetually trap participants who use traditional tech analysis. Notice the similarities with the posted analog.

jd5584

VIX at all-time lows, market at channel line resistance with the consistent 94TD cycle roughly 2+ weeks away. Analogs from prior down swings in 2017 overlaid

jd5584

There are some odd coincidences going on with the market. Firstly, examine the 4.5/9 month cycles and how accurately these continue to capture the major turns in the market. Secondly, notice that prior to the 11/8 cycle low (which was anticipated by cycle analysis-see archived posts), the market had a major downside day (especially in light of an absence of...

jd5584

17 weeks complete. Same as the secondary "pokie" back in June 2016, just prior to Brexit (FOMC meeting Mar 2017).

jd5584 Updated 

If this pattern plays out, it will be a game changer. The cycle work (larger cycle) suggests that the 18 month cycle lows in Oct 2014, Feb 2016 will play out to a major low around June 2017. That would imply that this current move off of the ICL on Nov 8, 2016 runs right translated to previous cycle highs in early 2014 and mid 2015. The megaphone pattern,...

jd5584 Updated 

Per last week's update that a likely cycle high was put in at roughly 2280 SPX. Here is a weekly chart denoting all of the intervals for ICH's/ICL's during this phase of the major market cycle. Note that there has been a tendency to print swing high's (cycle high's on Week 17) H-H. There is a tendency to print swing low's (cycle low's on Weeks 19-20). ...

jd5584

No one seems to have noticed this analog in GLD going back to 2012. This would call for a decline into the end of March and a major decline down to roughly 72.80 or so. The only conclusion that I can draw from this analog is that if/when t he ICH's hit in the major indicies (roughly between now and mid-January), Gold will not become the safe haven, but will...

jd5584

Cycle High window right into channel resistance. 228.00 (2280.00 SPX) is pretty significant. Combined with the time cycle symmetry it's more important. Roughly 120 days between cycle highs (April-Aug; Aug-Dec).

jd5584

This manic phase where the market doesn't pull back, accelerates higher each day figures to have that last push into 2280. My initial projection from late October suggested an ICL on Nov 8. A very difficult trade at the time due to the binary effect of the election on that date. Last week an analog was posted suggesting that the pullback into 2180 was very...

jd5584

Russell has now tagged upper channel line going back to 2007. Extreme overbought conditions with likely significant pullback going forward.

jd5584

The euphoria has driven Russell 18.00% higher in exactly one month. The ICL outlined in my trade ideas last month did mention the probable low date for the cycle turn. This one has been very similar to Oct 2014 (except that produced bigger gains in SPX at the time). There are several analog's that argue this is the window for a high. The Russell still might...

jd5584

Similar levels of extreme Overbought, corroborated by a 16 bar rise post-Brexit.

jd5584

Time Symmetry in place. Cycle Low due in mid-January.

jd5584

Time and Price match up pretty closely to the Oct 2014L-Jul 2015H,

jd5584

Overlaid the Fall of 2007 analog on GS. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes... Putting together evidence as to whether this is 2007-08 or whether Feb 2016 was Mar 2009. The ultimate question.

jd5584

Currently on Bar 20, Previous Cycle run made it to Bar 17 before the momentum stalled and the "chop" began. Nearing the upper channel line dating back some 10+ years. Bullishness off the charts, with extreme overbought readings. Potentially the W5, but yet to be determined. Also can be helpful to examine the 30 stocks in the index to see which ones are...

jd5584

Transports Analog from 07-08 looks very similar. The question that most people are asking themselves is whether the February lows were the major cycle turn. Many markets put in convincing lows in Feb 2016. However, the damage was limited and very brief. Other markets are putting blow off type top's and with the interest rate cycle ahead, the question is...